[MandoMan]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Hopefully this will push or govt into bringing budget into balance even a surplus to being bringing down the debt.

The proposed budget could be balanced or close to it were it not that it provides lots of tax cuts we can afford only by borrowing. As a retired person who doesn’t count on Social Security, I’ll get several thousand dollars more per year, but it’s all deficit spending. The tax cuts fulfill campaign promises and curry votes, but they aren’t good for the country in the long term. What’s good for the country is those who have a lot paying more taxes and lowering the deficit and the national debt. Lowering the value of the dollar could be very good for us if people overseas were buying what we make, but now a lot of people overseas are angry at us and not buying what we make. We could have solved the Social Security problem years ago by simply raising the withholding tax by 1%, but who want to run on the platform of raising taxes?

[MandoMan]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

40 percent stocks, 40 percent bonds, 20 percent cash. All in no load index mutual funds. If you are asking if I will buy gold, the answer is no. Never have, never will.

I agree with you on no load mutual funds, but I have ALL my money there. Your 40/40/20 split is standard wealth management advice that maximizes income—for wealth managers. If I’d followed that advice over the years, I wouldn’t have been able to afford moving to The Villages and living in a house with no mortgage. My money has gone up much faster in mutual funds than it would have in bonds.

[RoboVil]

Originally Posted by DaveZ

A large portion of the US government's debt, approximately $9.2 trillion, will mature in the first half of 2025 with August being the key month and refinancing probably at a higher interest rate. Treasuries demand is low. Gold and other scarce assets are very high if not record high as investors eye uncertainty. BRICS countries are also snapping up metals like gold perhaps seeing sustained weakness in the dollar.

Sorry if redundant news but frames my question; what is your strategy?

(Serious and thoughtful replies if you don’t mind please.).

tech stocks in general, with a focus on AI stocks (NVDA, DELL, SMCI) and an eye on quantum computing stocks (waiting for a big pullback after the hype fades). Tech is the future (Always). With a sizeable portion in high-yield, safe investments.

[star20166@yahoo.com]

34 trillion in debt and a dollar that is losing about 9% in buying power a year. Solution is be your own central bank. Do as they do. Buy gold. Buy silver. Trade out those feckless dollars for real in your hands wealth.

[RoboVil]

Originally Posted by HappyTraveler

Pretty much the same thing. Six of one; half a dozen of the other.

I have had some pretty nasty tax surprises with mutual funds. You don't get tax surprises with ETFs

[oneclickplus]

Serious and thoughtful reply as requested. See attached.

[oneclickplus]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Selling gold to a private party and not paying the tax is not avoiding the capital gains tax. It is "evading" the tax and it is illegal.

Ummm, according to the US constitution, gold and silver are the ONLY legal money. Money itself can not be subject to a capital gain. There is no capital gain when spending that gold for anything including fiat paper currency. Valuing gold in fiat currency or land or food or goats does not constitute any gain. It is fraudulent for the USG to value everything in fiat dollars in order to confiscate / tax any perceived gain. Gold and silver (constitutionally) are not subject to any capital gains.

Try reversing your thinking. Gold is not $3300 / ounce. Rather:
a fiat dollar is worth 1/3300 of an ounce of gold (today)
a loaf of bread is 1/660 of an ounce of gold
a new car is worth 10 ounces of gold

Eventually, a fiat dollar will be worth nothing but a loaf of bread will still be 1/660 of an ounce of gold or other adjusted value (supply / demand). Same with cars, furniture, ovens, cattle, etc.

[rsmurano]

I look at what’s going on in the economy, WH, and global events to try and figure out if it’s wise to be in the market, or to be in all money market funds. My days of holding thru recessions like in 2022 are over, I’m capitalizing on the downturns to make money, sell into money market funds then start getting back in when sentiment is at its lowest. It worked in 2022 and last December when I sold everything. This year I got back into the market the 1st week in April and in these last 2 months have had my biggest rebound gains since the 2020 ‘V’ shape recovery.

When somebody makes a claim to jump into etfs over anything else is not an investor. There are thousands of mutual funds, index funds and etfs. I have heard people say they are getting into etfs like they are all have magical values to them. No fund group has any magical traits, you still have to know which fund you want to get into because some will make money and many many others will not. You can make a small fortune right now depending on how you invest.
I never have nor ever will buy bonds. I want to make money, if I want to be safe, I’ll put it in money markets, which I still have 25% of our portfolio in money market making over 4%, was making over 5.25% a few months ago. So my portfolio is 75% stocks/funds and 25% mm. All of my funds are indexed based with expense ratios of .02-.04%, low risk, high return, low turnover, and I have had most of these for over a decade when I’m fully invested. Most if not all earn over 25% with a couple over 40% a year.
Normally I only invest in stocks that I know like Apple, meta, Tesla and a few others. In 2023, I got back into the market with stocks like the above and made 100’s % gains then got out of all of them last December. Easy money since they were all way down, some of them below $100 a share.

I did the same thing in April 2025, got into 7 AI/high tech/and other class of stocks and made very good money. I normally don’t share my picks but since I’m out of 3 of them now, I can share: APP, ZIM, and HIMS, with HIMS making 100% gains in a couple months while the others were around 50% gains. Sold these and put the monies into other beat up high tech stocks that are making the same type of gains as those 3. Eventually when these stocks start leveling off I’ll be back into my go to index funds.

[retiredguy123]

Originally Posted by oneclickplus

Ummm, according to the US constitution, gold and silver are the ONLY legal money. Money itself can not be subject to a capital gain. There is no capital gain when spending that gold for anything including fiat paper currency. Valuing gold in fiat currency or land or food or goats does not constitute any gain. It is fraudulent for the USG to value everything in fiat dollars in order to confiscate / tax any perceived gain. Gold and silver (constitutionally) are not subject to any capital gains.

Try reversing your thinking. Gold is not $3300 / ounce. Rather:
a fiat dollar is worth 1/3300 of an ounce of gold (today)
a loaf of bread is 1/660 of an ounce of gold
a new car is worth 10 ounces of gold

Eventually, a fiat dollar will be worth nothing but a loaf of bread will still be 1/660 of an ounce of gold or other adjusted value (supply / demand). Same with cars, furniture, ovens, cattle, etc.

Sounds good, but the IRS doesn't agree.

From AI and Smartasset:

"The IRS taxes capital gains on gold the same way it does any other investment assets. But if you have bought physical gold, you'll likely owe a higher tax rate of 28% as a collectible. Mar 28, 2025."

From Bankrate:

"Capital gains on physical gold are taxed as collectibles and can be higher than the standard long-term capital gains tax rate. The maximum capital gains tax rate on collectibles, including physical gold, is 28%. This means that if you hold gold for more than a year and sell it for a profit, you may owe 28% of that profit in taxes, according to Bankrate."

[DaveZ]

Originally Posted by oneclickplus

Serious and thoughtful reply as requested. See attached.

Yes, that is definitely one point of view and some similarities with Weimar and some key differences too. Is hyperinflation a concern for you?

[DaveZ]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Sounds good, but the IRS doesn't agree.

From AI and Smartasset:

"The IRS taxes capital gains on gold the same way it does any other investment assets. But if you have bought physical gold, you'll likely owe a higher tax rate of 28% as a collectible. Mar 28, 2025."

From Bankrate:

"Capital gains on physical gold are taxed as collectibles and can be higher than the standard long-term capital gains tax rate. The maximum capital gains tax rate on collectibles, including physical gold, is 28%. This means that if you hold gold for more than a year and sell it for a profit, you may owe 28% of that profit in taxes, according to Bankrate."

As I understand it, gold ETF’s like IAU also incur the 28% capital gains hit on profit taken on sale. News articles out there about many retirees buying gold ETF’s without realizing this.

[retiredguy123]

Originally Posted by DaveZ

As I understand it, gold ETF’s like IAU also incur the 28% capital gains hit on profit taken on sale. News articles out there about many retirees buying gold ETF’s without realizing this.

Correct. Here is why the IRS treats gold ETFs as a collectible:

"Gold ETFs that hold physical gold are treated as collectibles for tax purposes by the IRS because they are considered to represent direct ownership of the underlying metal. This classification leads to a higher long-term capital gains tax rate of 28%, compared to the 15% or 20% rate that typically applies to other assets."

[opinionist]

Physical gold/silver has no counterparty risk, unlike every other asset.
It serves as a means to protect wealth and appears unattractive to those who want a net positive real asset growth.
The global financial system is headed for collapse due to fiscal insanity anywhere and everywhere.
Tangible assets may be the only thing of value after the quadrillions in derivative products cause a cascade failure.
My current allocation is 20% physical gold/silver, 50% real estate, and 30% mining and other foreign stocks/bonds.

[kingofbeer]

Originally Posted by HappyTraveler

Pretty much the same thing. Six of one; half a dozen of the other.

It is important to know these factors before you invest.
"Generally, ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) have lower costs than mutual funds. ETFs typically have lower expense ratios, which are the fees charged by the fund to manage the investment. For example, the median expense ratio for ETFs is 0.52%, while the median for mutual funds is 0.91%. While some mutual funds can have lower expense ratios, on average, ETFs are the more cost-effective option. "

[kingofbeer]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Impossible to do with the built-in capital gains taxes. But, with Vanguard, there really isn't much difference between their Admiral Index mutual funds and their ETFs. The expense ratios are so small that the cost difference is negligible.

I will follow the advice of the experts who prefer etf's over mutual funds.