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Global markets, your investment thoughts

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  #46  
Old 06-12-2025, 08:22 AM
kingofbeer kingofbeer is offline
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Originally Posted by Pugchief View Post
Because?....

If you're going to make a recommendation like this, you might want to explain your reasoning.

Personally, I have owned index funds in both formats and prefer mutual funds assuming the expense ratios are comparable. And I will explain why: If you need to sell in a volatile market, it is preferable, IMO, to have end of day pricing regardless of volume.
"Generally, ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) have lower costs than mutual funds. ETFs typically have lower expense ratios, which are the fees charged by the fund to manage the investment. For example, the median expense ratio for ETFs is 0.52%, while the median for mutual funds is 0.91%. While some mutual funds can have lower expense ratios, on average, ETFs are the more cost-effective option. "
  #47  
Old 06-12-2025, 08:29 AM
kingofbeer kingofbeer is offline
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Originally Posted by retiredguy123 View Post
Impossible to do with the built-in capital gains taxes. But, with Vanguard, there really isn't much difference between their Admiral Index mutual funds and their ETFs. The expense ratios are so small that the cost difference is negligible.
You are referring to your specific circumstances. I am not a Vanguard customer for example.
  #48  
Old 06-12-2025, 08:37 AM
kingofbeer kingofbeer is offline
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Originally Posted by Normal View Post
Amen… 1970 is long gone. Gold hasn’t nearly improved as well as stocks. We have about 20 % in cash and CDs of various banks. The stocks keep rolling it in.

Now we have a trade deal with China brilliantly crafted to our advantage. I say steady as she goes and enjoy your life.
How is the China trade deal good for us? We are charging 55% tariff on imports for China. The US consumer is paying for this.
  #49  
Old 06-12-2025, 08:44 AM
retiredguy123 retiredguy123 is offline
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Originally Posted by kingofbeer View Post
You are referring to your specific circumstances. I am not a Vanguard customer for example.
Yes, I only invest in index funds with Vanguard. If you read post no. 13, you will see that the expense raios are extremely low and the difference in cost between a Vanguard mutual fund and a Vanguard ETF is very small.
  #50  
Old 06-12-2025, 08:49 AM
GATORBILL66 GATORBILL66 is offline
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Originally Posted by DaveZ View Post
A large portion of the US government's debt, approximately $9.2 trillion, will mature in the first half of 2025 with August being the key month and refinancing probably at a higher interest rate. Treasuries demand is low. Gold and other scarce assets are very high if not record high as investors eye uncertainty. BRICS countries are also snapping up metals like gold perhaps seeing sustained weakness in the dollar.

Sorry if redundant news but frames my question; what is your strategy?

(Serious and thoughtful replies if you don’t mind please.).
If the government would quit giving billions of taxpayers money to all these colleges the nation debt would come down in a hurry!
  #51  
Old 06-12-2025, 09:09 AM
kingofbeer kingofbeer is offline
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Originally Posted by rsmurano View Post
I look at what’s going on in the economy, WH, and global events to try and figure out if it’s wise to be in the market, or to be in all money market funds. My days of holding thru recessions like in 2022 are over, I’m capitalizing on the downturns to make money, sell into money market funds then start getting back in when sentiment is at its lowest. It worked in 2022 and last December when I sold everything. This year I got back into the market the 1st week in April and in these last 2 months have had my biggest rebound gains since the 2020 ‘V’ shape recovery.

When somebody makes a claim to jump into etfs over anything else is not an investor. There are thousands of mutual funds, index funds and etfs. I have heard people say they are getting into etfs like they are all have magical values to them. No fund group has any magical traits, you still have to know which fund you want to get into because some will make money and many many others will not. You can make a small fortune right now depending on how you invest.
I never have nor ever will buy bonds. I want to make money, if I want to be safe, I’ll put it in money markets, which I still have 25% of our portfolio in money market making over 4%, was making over 5.25% a few months ago. So my portfolio is 75% stocks/funds and 25% mm. All of my funds are indexed based with expense ratios of .02-.04%, low risk, high return, low turnover, and I have had most of these for over a decade when I’m fully invested. Most if not all earn over 25% with a couple over 40% a year.
Normally I only invest in stocks that I know like Apple, meta, Tesla and a few others. In 2023, I got back into the market with stocks like the above and made 100’s % gains then got out of all of them last December. Easy money since they were all way down, some of them below $100 a share.

I did the same thing in April 2025, got into 7 AI/high tech/and other class of stocks and made very good money. I normally don’t share my picks but since I’m out of 3 of them now, I can share: APP, ZIM, and HIMS, with HIMS making 100% gains in a couple months while the others were around 50% gains. Sold these and put the monies into other beat up high tech stocks that are making the same type of gains as those 3. Eventually when these stocks start leveling off I’ll be back into my go to index funds.
Your strategy is good. You share 3 winners. Do you have any losers to share? Regarding the 3 winners, it is hard to predict when to buy those and when to sell those. I suspect you just got lucky timing with the 3 winners.
  #52  
Old 06-12-2025, 09:11 AM
kingofbeer kingofbeer is offline
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Originally Posted by DaveZ View Post
As I understand it, gold ETF’s like IAU also incur the 28% capital gains hit on profit taken on sale. News articles out there about many retirees buying gold ETF’s without realizing this.
I suspect that most retirees money is in non-taxable accounts. The capital gains would not apply there.
  #53  
Old 06-12-2025, 09:16 AM
Peachbelle Peachbelle is offline
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My problem with buying gold is you buy it at "spot" prices plus fees but when you sell it it is only bought at "scrap" prices plus fees. There's about a 25% difference between spot and scrap prices. So unless you can buy at "scrap" prices you are not getting a good deal. If anyone knows a way to buy at "scrap" let me know.
  #54  
Old 06-12-2025, 09:27 AM
DaveZ DaveZ is offline
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Originally Posted by kingofbeer View Post
I suspect that most retirees money is in non-taxable accounts. The capital gains would not apply there.
Got it, thanks!!
  #55  
Old 06-12-2025, 10:40 AM
Stu from NYC Stu from NYC is offline
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Originally Posted by kingofbeer View Post
I suspect that most retirees money is in non-taxable accounts. The capital gains would not apply there.
I will disagree. Unless you have your funds in a roth many of us have IRA or 401 that is taxable.
  #56  
Old 06-12-2025, 11:01 AM
retiredguy123 retiredguy123 is offline
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Originally Posted by Stu from NYC View Post
I will disagree. Unless you have your funds in a roth many of us have IRA or 401 that is taxable.
Any income that you remove from an IRA or 401K will be taxed at your ordinary income tax rate. You can never take advantage of the lower capital gains rate.
  #57  
Old 06-12-2025, 11:46 AM
kingofbeer kingofbeer is offline
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Originally Posted by Stu from NYC View Post
I will disagree. Unless you have your funds in a roth many of us have IRA or 401 that is taxable.
IRA and 401k accounts are not taxed
  #58  
Old 06-12-2025, 11:49 AM
kingofbeer kingofbeer is offline
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Originally Posted by retiredguy123 View Post
Any income that you remove from an IRA or 401K will be taxed at your ordinary income tax rate. You can never take advantage of the lower capital gains rate.
Income from these accounts are not subject to tax. The withdrawals are subject to tax.
  #59  
Old 06-12-2025, 11:52 AM
kingofbeer kingofbeer is offline
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Originally Posted by RoboVil View Post
I have had some pretty nasty tax surprises with mutual funds. You don't get tax surprises with ETFs
Agreed. Mutual funds in taxable accounts will create taxable events. In some cases, the funds have lost you money, but do report capital gains and distributions which will create taxable event.
  #60  
Old 06-12-2025, 12:07 PM
retiredguy123 retiredguy123 is offline
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Originally Posted by kingofbeer View Post
Income from these accounts are not subject to tax. The withdrawals are subject to tax.
I may not have been clear. What I said was that income that is "removed" from an IRA is taxed. If you have money in an IRA that was funded with after-tax money, it is not taxed when you remove it. You do not pay tax on IRA income until you remove it from the IRA.
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