[rsmurano]

I hope everything goes down another 20% or more. So much going wrong here and in the world. All the stats for the last couple of years have been propped up here to make things look better. For example, the employment stats every month have been overblown then corrected the next month or 2. This last stat was very low but it could be corrected even lower next month. Also, looking at these employment stats, a good portion of the hires are coming from government hires.
I got completely out of the market and put everything in 5.25% money market holdings. I’ll wait then get back in. Did the same 2 years ago at the end of 2021, got back in during 2023, then got back out.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

its just a growth repricing exaggerated by passive investments, and sector valuation imbalances, as investors / traders all try to front run the fed view of monetary policy and the impact on bonds, with a small geo political influence in the ever tumultuous Middle East. The fed has shifted from inflation, now back within target range, excluding the bogus owners equivalent rent portion (30+%) of CPI, to employment and the economy, as parsed in J Powells recent statements and interviews. The fed is also known to be late in changing rates due to the inaccuracies of forecasting the economy, as they want hard data to validate their position. The market valuation does not matter to the fed as the market is not the economy, so stop blaming the fed whose changes influence the economy in 18-24 months.

Since GDPNow, labor employment and labor statistics, and corporate bond spreads are not weakening very quickly, but the leading indicators are showing the first signs of slowing, PMI, Sahm rule, mortgage rates, treasury interest rates versus fed rates, etc., investors are moving some money from stocks to bonds. .

Lastly, with machine learning (ML) everyone is starting to act on the same signals, as there are just a limited data set and potential signals. Very similar to chess, there is a bounded board of data but an unlimited number of good and bad moves. I am watching two / three independent ML money managers acting exactly the same way, same trades, etc. Couple that with passive vs active management, active sets prices on ever decreasing trading float, correction move rates are faster than the historical average for similar events.

Also, if you rollover 30% from an IRA/401K to Roth, it's always better to do this at the top of the market, than the bottom. .

[gatorbill1]

Today 8/6 is the day rich people make money

[bragones]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Also, if you rollover 30% from an IRA/401K to Roth, it's always better to do this at the top of the market, than the bottom. .

Sorry, don't understand your comment. If you are rolling over from a taxable IRA/401K, to a ROTH, isn't the best time to do that at a market bottom when the values are lower but will catch up in a non taxable ROTH?

[LeRoySmith]

Originally Posted by bragones

Sorry, don't understand your comment. If you are rolling over from a taxable IRA/401K, to a ROTH, isn't the best time to do that at a market bottom when the values are lower but will catch up in a non taxable ROTH?

I think you are correct

[Robojo]

Originally Posted by Caymus

Any guesses on how far the markets will drop today? NASDAQ is down about 1000 premarket.

Has to do with war. The entire world is on the verge of war.

[RoboVil]

Originally Posted by Pugchief

Based on what? The high unemployment? The out of control inflation?

If anything, they should be raising interest rates.

Not sure about raising rates, but this is a single data point. Retail sales are strong, and that is what drives the economy.

[Boomer]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

- - - - - - -



Also, if you rollover 30% from an IRA/401K to Roth, it's always better to do this at the top of the market, than the bottom. .

Nooooooooo. Please tell me that last sentence (quoted here) from your post was a typo or some such thing…..

When share prices are down, it’s time to get while the gettin’ is good by using the opportunity to get more shares out of a traditional IRA and into a Roth to grow tax free forever after.

It is not fun to pay those taxes, of course, but you will thank yourself when you hit RMD age, and before that, when you hit 65 and find IRMAA lurking around the corner.

Boomer

PS: bragones, quoted below, beat me to it.

Originally Posted by bragones

Sorry, don't understand your comment. If you are rolling over from a taxable IRA/401K, to a ROTH, isn't the best time to do that at a market bottom when the values are lower but will catch up in a non taxable ROTH?

[Caymus]

Originally Posted by Boomer

Nooooooooo. Please tell me that last sentence (quoted here) from your post was a typo or some such thing…..

When share prices are down, it’s time to get while the gettin’ is good by using the opportunity to get more shares out of a traditional IRA and into a Roth to grow tax free forever after.

It is not fun to pay those taxes, of course, but you will thank yourself when you hit RMD age, and before that, when you hit 65 and find IRMAA lurking around the corner.

Boomer

PS: bragones, quoted below, beat me to it.

It may not matter if the person is moving a certain amount annually to stay within certain tax brackets/IRMMA surcharges. Only a few people (not me) can constantly pick market bottom/tops.

[opinionist]

"Fed should have lowered interest rates at July meeting IMHO."

Cut rates and destroy the dollar with hyperinflation.
Raise rates and crash the economy.
This is what the end of the road looks like.

[Pugchief]

Originally Posted by Pugchief

Based on what? The high unemployment? The out of control inflation?

If anything, they should be raising interest rates.

Originally Posted by RoboVil

Not sure about raising rates, but this is a single data point. Retail sales are strong, and that is what drives the economy.

Umm, no, they are not.

[Pairadocs]

Originally Posted by jimbomaybe

Today /tomorrow things will drop until greed overcomes fear

True, and meanwhile, to me, it's Thanksgiving day, Black Friday, bargain day. Trying to restrain buying as much as possible all on one day. Takes all the discipline I can summon when all the indexes get this attractive, but I'm pacing myself... so far... LOL !

[Pugchief]

Originally Posted by opinionist

"Fed should have lowered interest rates at July meeting IMHO."

Cut rates and destroy the dollar with hyperinflation.
Raise rates and crash the economy.
This is what the end of the road looks like.

Hyperinflation kills bonds.
Crashed economy kills stocks.
Might want to buy some gold.

[Pairadocs]

Originally Posted by tophcfa

There in lies a major problem. Both the country and the consumer are overburdened with unsustainable levels of debt, resulting in interest rates driving the market.

Yep ! ! It really is that simple. But my guess is the majority of people really do not believe in "unsustainable" levels of debt even though they frequently talk about it !

[DAVES]

Originally Posted by Caymus

Any guesses on how far the markets will drop today? NASDAQ is down about 1000 premarket.

Perhaps projection on my part. We are all nervous.REALITY, teasing a little. If, I knew, I would have a lot more money.

People are easily led into MOB thought.The market only goes up kind of stuff. The market only goes up-EXCEPT WHEN IT DOESN'T. Even money. It is a unit of exchange. Most of the money we discuss does not even exist except as computer notes. A silver dollar coin. Was a dollar. Today like $30. Gold, Nixon took us off currency backed by gold and silver. At that time gold was worth 34 dollars an ounce. Today it is around 2,000. Is the gold worth more or TRUTH is the dollar is worth far less.

Endless news about INFLATION. REALITY,you pay the higher prices with AFTER TAX dollars. The TAXMAN DROOLS over YOUR MONEY.