"How Tariffs Work and Why They're Shaking the Market" & "Zero Stocks"

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Old 04-12-2025, 07:51 AM
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Default "How Tariffs Work and Why They're Shaking the Market" & "Zero Stocks"

No matter how we are perceiving our current economic times, we might be starting to feel like we are on information-overload.

But here's more: I listen to podcasts, while I am doing other things, like chores, around the house. In the past few days, I ran across two financial interviews that I found particularly interesting. Here we go.....

April 4: On WealthTrack, Consuelo Mack interviewed Robert Kessler who has been in the world of finance for a long time. The title of this week's interview is "Zero Stocks."

While all around us, we are hearing things like, "Stay the course," and "The market goes up and the market goes down. This is normal," it is interesting to hear a different point of view on that. Kessler is all out. He refers to Warren Buffett now sitting on $325 Billion in sideline cash, waiting to buy value.

Consuelo brings up the standard routine about market timing, but Kessler does not really agree. At the end of the interview, my takeaway is that Kessler is retirement age and he simply does not think we retirees have time to wait for all this dust to settle.......

If you want to hear everything Kessler has to say, go to wealthtrack.com and find "Zero Stocks" -- the recent interview.

April 10: The other podcast I heard this week was on Taylor Schulte's Stay Wealthy Retirement Show. That was the one titled "How Tariffs Actually Work." Schulte interviewed yet another expert, Cullen Roche. Unlike some other financial podcasts, this one is well done. (Too many financial podcasters or television people can get downright annoying because they try to do comedy routines or are way too into banter or talk over top of the person they are talking to.)

This interview though was professionally done and informative and did not try to be esoteric. If that sounds good to you, just give the title a google and you will find it.

(This "living in interesting times" sure is getting old -- but so are we. )

Boomer
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Old 04-12-2025, 08:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Boomer View Post
No matter how we are perceiving our current economic times, we might be starting to feel like we are on information-overload.

But here's more: I listen to podcasts, while I am doing other things, like chores, around the house. In the past few days, I ran across two financial interviews that I found particularly interesting. Here we go.....

April 4: On WealthTrack, Consuelo Mack interviewed Robert Kessler who has been in the world of finance for a long time. The title of this week's interview is "Zero Stocks."

While all around us, we are hearing things like, "Stay the course," and "The market goes up and the market goes down. This is normal," it is interesting to hear a different point of view on that. Kessler is all out. He refers to Warren Buffett now sitting on $325 Billion in sideline cash, waiting to buy value.

Consuelo brings up the standard routine about market timing, but Kessler does not really agree. At the end of the interview, my takeaway is that Kessler is retirement age and he simply does not think we retirees have time to wait for all this dust to settle.......

If you want to hear everything Kessler has to say, go to wealthtrack.com and find "Zero Stocks" -- the recent interview.

April 10: The other podcast I heard this week was on Taylor Schulte's Stay Wealthy Retirement Show. That was the one titled "How Tariffs Actually Work." Schulte interviewed yet another expert, Cullen Roche. Unlike some other financial podcasts, this one is well done. (Too many financial podcasters or television people can get downright annoying because they try to do comedy routines or are way too into banter or talk over top of the person they are talking to.)

This interview though was professionally done and informative and did not try to be esoteric. If that sounds good to you, just give the title a google and you will find it.

(This "living in interesting times" sure is getting old -- but so are we. )

Boomer
That's all well and fine, but my tendency is to listen to my senior VP of wealth management at Merrill Lynch and not the "talking heads" on TV and the internet
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Old 04-12-2025, 08:14 AM
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Default Chinese Crack

The intent of all these tariffs were to give governments advantages in trade. The Chinese crack of televisions, phones and chips seemed to be painless at first, but now we all will have to go through the withdrawals caused by those worms and parasites that really feasted on all of us for years. Thankfully we have the guts to know we need to go through withdrawal pains from the crack of other countries and get it done before going too far where it wouldn’t be survivable. A no tariff solution is the only solution.

If you want investment advice, buy American made stocks, nothing else is going to be happening’

PS. Not to freak anyone out, but your Alexa, televisions and iPhones were all made in China. Hmm….I know they all listen…I wonder what information they hear, store etc all while made in China? Is it possible someone inserted a little tweak, collecting data and saving it for future use? Nah
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Last edited by Normal; 04-12-2025 at 08:33 AM.
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Old 04-12-2025, 09:19 AM
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Reciprocal tariffs have just been removed from computers, smartphones and other electronic devices such as flat panel TVs. I guess big business lobbying and pay to play has been highly successful.
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Old 04-12-2025, 10:02 AM
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I handle my own investment management. No complaints. Life is good.

Wealthtrack is a good show which I DVR but have not viewed for a while. At least some of the interviewees such as Charles Royce and Bill Miller are with outfits that sponsor the show. If I recall correctly some time ago Bill got into bitcoin. Wonder how that worked out? The interviews with Charles Ellis and Christine Benz were outstanding.

BITCOIN BECAME 50% OF BILL MILLER’S NET WORTH LARGELY THROUGH GAINS FROM EARLY PURCHASES. NOW WHAT? – WealthTrack

Anybody recall Louis Rukeyser and "Wall Street Week" and the not-so-good predictions of his Elves?

Wall Street Week - Wikipedia
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Old 04-12-2025, 10:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Normal View Post
PS. Not to freak anyone out, but your Alexa, televisions and iPhones were all made in China. Hmm….I know they all listen…I wonder what information they hear, store etc all while made in China? Is it possible someone inserted a little tweak, collecting data and saving it for future use? Nah
Of course, they audio record what is happening in your home. And, no, not just what questions have been asked of it. They're on all the time. Those crazy Alexa and Siri, etc. machines were likely developed for that purpose.

Even worse, most (or all) Smart TVs have cameras and are video recording the room they are in. They probably audio record too - not sure on that. My understanding is that you can disable the camera but, it has to be done at initial set-up when you buy it. If anyone knows more about that, please post details.
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Old 04-12-2025, 11:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Normal View Post
The intent of all these tariffs were to give governments advantages in trade. The Chinese crack of televisions, phones and chips seemed to be painless at first, but now we all will have to go through the withdrawals caused by those worms and parasites that really feasted on all of us for years. Thankfully we have the guts to know we need to go through withdrawal pains from the crack of other countries and get it done before going too far where it wouldn’t be survivable. A no tariff solution is the only solution.

If you want investment advice, buy American made stocks, nothing else is going to be happening’

PS. Not to freak anyone out, but your Alexa, televisions and iPhones were all made in China. Hmm….I know they all listen…I wonder what information they hear, store etc all while made in China? Is it possible someone inserted a little tweak, collecting data and saving it for future use? Nah
Yes, that is a bad situation when the US's 3rd largest trading partner - China - is also your 1st or 2nd military foe.
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Old 04-12-2025, 11:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Normal View Post
The intent of all these tariffs were to give governments advantages in trade. The Chinese crack of televisions, phones and chips seemed to be painless at first, but now we all will have to go through the withdrawals caused by those worms and parasites that really feasted on all of us for years. Thankfully we have the guts to know we need to go through withdrawal pains from the crack of other countries and get it done before going too far where it wouldn’t be survivable. A no tariff solution is the only solution.

If you want investment advice, buy American made stocks, nothing else is going to be happening’

PS. Not to freak anyone out, but your Alexa, televisions and iPhones were all made in China. Hmm….I know they all listen…I wonder what information they hear, store etc all while made in China? Is it possible someone inserted a little tweak, collecting data and saving it for future use? Nah
No worms or parasites feasted on the US.
US corporations gave away its technology and manufacturing to other countries in pursuit of cheaper costs, high returns, and great dividends for stock holders, and the country feasted on all the cheap goods.
US lost the workforce to manufacture those goods, and even if companies bring home their industries, it will take billions of $$$ and years to start up and produce.
All the now perceived problems were self induced by Corporate America.
At least many technology items are now tariff free, as the price hit was going to cost votes, and sales.
Someone seems to be blinking quite rapidly!
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Old 04-12-2025, 12:16 PM
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Default Still have the problems, the cause is irrelevant

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Originally Posted by Whatnext View Post
No worms or parasites feasted on the US.
US corporations gave away its technology and manufacturing to other countries in pursuit of cheaper costs, high returns, and great dividends for stock holders, and the country feasted on all the cheap goods.
US lost the workforce to manufacture those goods, and even if companies bring home their industries, it will take billions of $$$ and years to start up and produce.
All the now perceived problems were self induced by Corporate America.
At least many technology items are now tariff free, as the price hit was going to cost votes, and sales.
Someone seems to be blinking quite rapidly!
I believe you are right about the cause, but the problems still exists. The cheap labor goods are crack, and we are going to go through painful withdrawals just like any addict would. It has to be done though, our deficit spending and debt need to be turned around now, otherwise the future is much shorter and we all die like the overdose victim.
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Old 04-12-2025, 12:18 PM
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OK, I just watched Consuelo Mack's interview with Robert Kessler. I agree with his viewpoint while bearing in mind he is a bond guy. Although he did not mention The Shiller Index he did refer to P/E ratios being very, very high. The Shiller Index closed Friday at 33.15, still about double its median and mean. He also mentioned that when stocks dive it usually is about 50%. It could be even more under present valuations IMHO. His offhand remarks about financials advisors caused me to chuckle as they were right on the mark.

Looks like he is about my age and enormously wealthy. Repo Man Robert Kessler used the repo market to help his clients earn 24% returns last year on Treasury bonds. What does he know that others don't? - September 15, 2003
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Old 04-12-2025, 01:03 PM
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newsflash - the US induced tariffs on chinese smart phones, computers, and other electronic devices have been lifted
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Old 04-12-2025, 03:38 PM
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Originally Posted by manaboutown View Post
OK, I just watched Consuelo Mack's interview with Robert Kessler. I agree with his viewpoint while bearing in mind he is a bond guy. Although he did not mention The Shiller Index he did refer to P/E ratios being very, very high. The Shiller Index closed Friday at 33.15, still about double its median and mean. He also mentioned that when stocks dive it usually is about 50%. It could be even more under present valuations IMHO. His offhand remarks about financials advisors caused me to chuckle as they were right on the mark.

Looks like he is about my age and enormously wealthy. Repo Man Robert Kessler used the repo market to help his clients earn 24% returns last year on Treasury bonds. What does he know that others don't? - September 15, 2003

Hey, manaboutown, thanks for watching that interview, for the conversation at-hand. I also got a laugh out of Kessler's remark about financial advisors.

Ironically, the first response to my original post was in favor of taking advice from only those truly in-the-know -- ya know, like a VP of ML??? HAH! BOA acquired ML, now known as just plain Merrill, because the giant bank wanted an advisory. BOA gets a piece of the Merrill action. BOA's first loyalty is to the stockholders and the Big Wheels.

When thinking about sources of information, it is always a good idea to read between the lines, look for the agenda. Those Merrill advisors are getting paid whether you do or not -- just not getting paid quite as much, but the money still rolls in from AUM, etc. And soooo, the stockholders still get paid, too. But if others feel like a huge bank is looking out for them, well, alrighty then. I am just not a fan of huge banks and their underling advisors.

Btw, I was trying to figure out how old Kessler is, but I was in a hurry this morning when I threw this conversation onto TOTV and did not have time to track down his age. His main point was about his age and how long it will take for these fevered promises to ever come true. We know somebody like Kessler is not going to go broke, but I thought his reasoning for abandoning the market was interesting.....

But, for some people, there will always be the thrill of the chase and/or there can never be enough money. A friend of mine grew up in her father's funeral business. She said her dad used to say, "There are no saddlebags on coffins." Kessler was basically saying to take the profit and run, once you reach an age where if things go really bad, you might not ever recover.

I liked the second interview for reasons I included in my original post.

Boomer
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Last edited by Boomer; 04-12-2025 at 03:44 PM.
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Old 04-12-2025, 04:02 PM
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A tariff is a tax. That's it.

Buy low, sell high.
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Old 04-12-2025, 04:40 PM
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Kessler was 61 at the time according the 2003 article and worth hundreds of millions so I am guessing he is my age, 83, give or take. He looks ten years younger to me. He got into the bond business in 1966 or 1967 and commented during the interview on the Dow being 1,000 in I think 1969 and then again in I think 1981. I had a boss during the 1970s who was a stock market genius and I am not kidding. He kept encouraging me to get into the market which was very cheap during those years but I was fixated on investing in commercial real estate which worked out well. Nevertheless I put a few bucks in a couple of his recommendations and doubled that money within a very short time. He referred me to a discount broker, Olde Discount, too. He was about ten years older than me and starting with nothing he was already worth several million dollars at that time. He had gone to Stanford on a 100% scholarship, majored in chemistry.
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Old 04-12-2025, 04:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boomer View Post
Hey, manaboutown, thanks for watching that interview, for the conversation at-hand. I also got a laugh out of Kessler's remark about financial advisors.

Ironically, the first response to my original post was in favor of taking advice from only those truly in-the-know -- ya know, like a VP of ML??? HAH! BOA acquired ML, now known as just plain Merrill, because the giant bank wanted an advisory. BOA gets a piece of the Merrill action. BOA's first loyalty is to the stockholders and the Big Wheels.

When thinking about sources of information, it is always a good idea to read between the lines, look for the agenda. Those Merrill advisors are getting paid whether you do or not -- just not getting paid quite as much, but the money still rolls in from AUM, etc. And soooo, the stockholders still get paid, too. But if others feel like a huge bank is looking out for them, well, alrighty then. I am just not a fan of huge banks and their underling advisors.

Btw, I was trying to figure out how old Kessler is, but I was in a hurry this morning when I threw this conversation onto TOTV and did not have time to track down his age. His main point was about his age and how long it will take for these fevered promises to ever come true. We know somebody like Kessler is not going to go broke, but I thought his reasoning for abandoning the market was interesting.....

But, for some people, there will always be the thrill of the chase and/or there can never be enough money. A friend of mine grew up in her father's funeral business. She said her dad used to say, "There are no saddlebags on coffins." Kessler was basically saying to take the profit and run, once you reach an age where if things go really bad, you might not ever recover.

I liked the second interview for reasons I included in my original post.

Boomer
EXCEPT——When that advisor is also a long time personal friend and pretty much does the same with his own money as he does with mine
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