[Captainpd]

Originally Posted by ureout

I hope your advice is much better than your spelling



Just a remainder that there are years of negative stock / index returns

The spelling police. How are things in your perfect world

[RICH1]

At our Age you shouldn’t be in the Stock market ….. Financial Advisors are milking you & your money

Bonds & wine …

[Babubhat]

And why do people not factor in that money is worth less the older you get? Your health and mobility are going to go downhill. Few will cheat Father Time here

[Blackbird45]

If you enter the stock market and rely on the increase and the decrease on the value of a stock, you are a gambler. As many have said the market has a history of profitably in the long run. I myself do not rely on the volitivity of a stock but am satisfied with dividends. You invest in a utility that might only return around 5%, it's not like hitting the lottery but it's better than what the bank is paying and unless there is a total collapse of the economy it's a more reliable barometer where you will find yourself financially at the end of the year. If the original poster does not want to lose sleep, he should look for another way to invest his money.

[tvbound]

Originally Posted by skarra

You mention how you cannot time the market, and then talk about your gains when you time it just right. That’s BS.

Stick with stocks for the long term (preferably in index funds), and keep cash for short term bumps like this. Then gradually sell stocks at other times to maintain your life style.

"You mention how you cannot time the market, and then talk about your gains when you time it just right. That’s BS."


I am no longer amazed at the number of people who claim to have perfectly timed the markets, when a downturn or upturn occurs.

I'm sure that posting anonymously on boards, without needing to show/prove these perfect moves and amazing gains...is simply a pure coincidence. lol

Although he is hated by many, I'll just stick with that guy in Omaha's advice and primarily buy/hold - as it has served me very well in the last 40 years.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by Blackbird45

If the original poster does not want to lose sleep, he should look for another way to invest his money.

Haven't lost sleep in over 20 years, did looze sleep back in the 2000 -2003 bear market, as I doubled my money and then lost it all. . still writing off the losses on my taxes. . .

Back then they said, keep 6 months of cash for a job loss, how about 3 years of not being able to find a job? Happened to my boss at a different time period as well.

financial disaster can happen to anyone, one might not be able to see how because the future is always uncertain. . . the trick is to maintain capital, there will be down years. . .

And yes, i have talked with plenty of people who time the market for a living, have been in live trading rooms with people trading for a living. . . . many live in FL. It requires a certain personality and lots of dedication, but it can be done, and with python software, writing trading algorithms is becoming easier and easier. . though my learning python is slow. . . with this stupid 10 hour a day job. Quitting in June after my 401K is fully funded for the year. .

hint: the options trading and expiration cycle has a huge influence on daily / weekly price action.

trading guy

[Andyb]

Yep, another crash around the corner and with the latest wasteful $1.7 Trillion spending bill, inflation will continue.
Odd, that most of these companies you stated are the ones ruining and running this country.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by tvbound

I am no longer amazed at the number of people who claim to have perfectly timed the markets, when a downturn or upturn occurs.

No one times the market perfectly, but having a win loss ratio about 55% and having small losses and larger gains is all that is needed. Its not for everyone nor for many, but that doesn't mean no one. The outcome isn't binary, but it is easy to confuse a bull market with smarts, versus luck. . .

Even the longest investment streak with Bill Miller had a single down year, but higher every other year involves some buying / selling (or equity timing) of individual stocks. . And that's the job of an active management fund, to buy and sell stocks for gains and minimizes losses.

The phrase "No one can time the market!" is a marketing phrase to convince/sell to the mutual fund / active management customers to give portfolio managers their money so that they can do it.

If you don't think you are being manipulated by advertising, just repeating that phrase means you are.

[tvbound]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

No one times the market perfectly, but having a win loss ratio about 55% and having small losses and larger gains is all that is needed. Its not for everyone nor for many, but that doesn't mean no one. The outcome isn't binary, but it is easy to confuse a bull market with smarts, versus luck. . .

Even the longest investment streak with Bill Miller had a single down year, but higher every other year involves some buying / selling (or equity timing) of individual stocks. . And that's the job of an active management fund, to buy and sell stocks for gains and minimizes losses.

The phrase "No one can time the market!" is a marketing phrase to convince/sell to the mutual fund / active management customers to give portfolio managers their money so that they can do it.

If you don't think you are being manipulated by advertising, just repeating that phrase means you are.

The most important word in my post is "claim," with the second most being "anonymous." lol

I do fully understand though, your point about the marketing phrases used to try and get people to use a company to manage their investments. I have found that there is no one who is more interested in my investments and financial stability than myself, which is why I have never used anyone else.

I also didn't mean to imply that I never change funds/individual stocks, as I do occasionally depending on what I see/think are trends. With the advent of the internet and the massive amount of info that is now available, even for those of us who are not privy to what is basically (but legal) 'insider info' and microsecond trades - I can't imagine paying someone to manage my money.

[OhioBuckeye]

Yea, & when will they start on our bank accounts, they’re coming !

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Robbb

Yea but who cares, he makes some good points.

Yes, there are some very good points, and logically the longer the post, the MORE likely that there is an insignificant error or two. Short posts rarely have speling errors.

Tee Hee.........pun intended.

[Blackbird45]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Haven't lost sleep in over 20 years, did looze sleep back in the 2000 -2003 bear market, as I doubled my money and then lost it all. . still writing off the losses on my taxes. . .

Back then they said, keep 6 months of cash for a job loss, how about 3 years of not being able to find a job? Happened to my boss at a different time period as well.

financial disaster can happen to anyone, one might not be able to see how because the future is always uncertain. . . the trick is to maintain capital, there will be down years. . .

And yes, i have talked with plenty of people who time the market for a living, have been in live trading rooms with people trading for a living. . . . many live in FL. It requires a certain personality and lots of dedication, but it can be done, and with python software, writing trading algorithms is becoming easier and easier. . though my learning python is slow. . . with this stupid 10 hour a day job. Quitting in June after my 401K is fully funded for the year. .

hint: the options trading and expiration cycle has a huge influence on daily / weekly price action.

trading guy

I was not trying to put you down.

It depends on what you’re looking for and what is the final goal. My wife and I have been retired for over 12 years. We live in the Villages and have a comfortable life that is fully cover by our pension and social security. We also have 401Ks which we only draw the RMD that is required. As I said in an earlier posting we are not speculators in the market but rely on dividends that is totally reinvested. Eventually one of use will pass on and at that point the dividends will cover cost the of lost income. When we are both gone our children will be left with a decent inheritance. Granted we don’t have a 50’ boat or a second home in the Bahamas, but we have a happy life without any worries. If I had to do it over again and was younger there are legal ways to make guaranteed return on your investments other than the stock market.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Babubhat

If you don’t have a longer timeframe you shouldn’t own stocks. It’s okay to bet against using ETF. Highly profitable this year.

It is possible to make money as a short-term trader. I was only able to do it once on only 1 stock opportunity. It was a long time ago when I devoted a lot of TIME to following the stock market. I watched Fast Money twice a day plus other financial shows. It got to be a lot of work. To be a short-term trader, you have to be an expert to the point of NOT having a life. It is MUCH better for your mental health to be a long-term trader. As Warren Buffet has said, "pick good companies that you understand and hold them FOREVER".

But, picking a portfolio of INDIVIDUAL stock is also difficult. That's why God made ETFs. And be aware that a MILD recession is predicted for 2023.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by coralway

There is always a bull market somewhere.

Today, there is a bull market FOR betting AGAINST a bull market.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by rsmurano

A lot of bad information in this thread.
For 1, if you are suffering, it’s your own fault. Everybody saw this coming. I got out last January when it was at its high. I hope this market crashes in 2023 because it’s going to be 1 heck of a buying opportunity later on. I do my own investing. If you are worried about riding the bad times out, you could have put trailing stop losses on your equities so if they go down X amount or X%, they would be sold. This takes the emotion out of buying and selling.
Or you could have sold everything.

As for the comment about all etfs being good or that’s all you need, is false. There are thousands of etfs and I bet right now most have fallen the same % as the market has. What is an etf but a collection of individual company stocks and the stock market is 10-30% down overall. Sure, there are some etfs making money because the company stocks that make up the etf are making money, but they are the minority.

This year, cash is king. I invested in 1 fund 2 different times this year and made close to 30% in 2 months each time then got out.

Some investors will tell you you can’t time the market which I agree. Like I said early on that I saw a disaster coming a year ago and acted on it. Now when things turn around, maybe the end of 2023 or maybe 2024, when I get back in, I will make a 30% or more profit instead of waiting for the market to make back 30% just to get even from the late 2021 highs.

To me, this was a high-quality post with a lot of good usable advice. I would just like to add my comment.........the ORIGINAL ETFs like SPY and QQQ will DEFINITELY go down as much as the general stock market because they ARE the general stock market. There are some ETFs that are a subsector of the market, like maybe all the coal stock or all the chips stock or etc that MAY go up or down more or less than say SPY.