Is the market going to crash? Is the market going to crash? - Page 5 - Talk of The Villages Florida

Is the market going to crash?

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  #61  
Old 06-11-2021, 07:10 AM
BrianNotFromNYC BrianNotFromNYC is offline
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Originally Posted by Becca9800 View Post
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.
There are so many variables, and since no one here knows your situation or age, answers are perfect, or perfectly wrong. The allocation in your fund is not what I would pick, but an advisor picked it based on your fear of the future value, versus the goals of maintaining original value. Risk. The allocation you have is like, bonds are blah but safe, stocks are less safe but have been growing, and stable or cash is like, useless but quickly available? So leave it all where it is and start doing some reading on allocation choices over time. Then decide to change if you want. But to your original question, the stock market is long overdue to "correct" meaning go down some, or a lot. The main reason it has not is that no one wants to be in Bonds. They pay historically low interest. But, if I had a less foggy crystal ball, I can predict with certainty that eventually inflation is going to come home to roost due to the excess spending and stimulus money in the USA. When it does (it is already) and the Fed tightens money supply to try and check it, Bond Rates will rise. Fear will begin to move money from stocks to bonds, and the market will "correct" for 6 months to a year. When? Well it is overdue and the crystal ball is foggy. If you are scared of all this and can't do more research, consider moving some investments out of mutual funds and into direct stock ownership. Allocate that money to blue chip dividend payers. These will pay you dividends regardless of the ups and downs of the individual stock price. Meaning, let's say you put 5000 in pretend stock XXXX that buy 500 shares, each paying $1 dividends annually. If in five years the "value" dropped to 3,000, you still will get $500 annually in dividends because you still own 500 shares. If that same 5000 was put in mutual funds that tanked 30 or 40%, you will own less "shares" in the fund, and get less dividends. I dislike Mutual funds, but understand that do more asset diversification. But it comes at a cost (fees) and never, ever, fare will in a correction. And when the market recovers again, you never fully recover. Back to stock XXXX, you owned 500 shares as the price went up and down, and the only opportunity you los, is selling at a profit if you just sit tight.
  #62  
Old 06-11-2021, 07:14 AM
rustyp rustyp is offline
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Do not use LPL Financial (there is an office in Spanish Springs). After years of having an account up north with them I decided I wanted it transferred to TV. I had to interview with them to accept me. Accept what - I am a customer now ! When I told them I wanted to park my money in a money market fund they politely advised me we were probably not a good match. That is when I decided to move on to another organization. It took over 30 days for them to perform a transfer of funds and $180 charge to to do so. Get this $15 FedEx to send a check. Send a check - you are in the finance business. Hit the computer button. $125 paperwork fee. $40 yearly account charge of which I just paid the 2020 fee less than 30 days prior but now I have to pay all of 2021 - not a proration. Run for the hills from LPL Financial.

Last edited by rustyp; 06-11-2021 at 07:20 AM.
  #63  
Old 06-11-2021, 07:17 AM
Accidental1 Accidental1 is offline
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Default Please find an advisor

Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 View Post
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.
Please talk to friends, ex-colleagues from work, and family to try and find an advisor you can trust. Then tell him about your market fears and give him all the information he needs to do his job (assets, income, debt, anticpated longevity etc.). Allow him to put together a plan and execute it. You can read along the way if you want to learn more about the markets. The plan will need to change over time due to changes in your age and market conditions. I'm 63 and have been with my advisor for about 20 years. At one point I thought I'd try and manage my assets myself but quickly learned I didn't have the stomach for it, or knowledge to do it. My advisor has talked me down several times when I wanted to cash out of stock funds (at the wrong times) and he's been right every time. Also, please ignore opinions found here on your asset allocation. Nobody here has enough of your personal information (which you shouldn't share anyway) to make any resonable judgements. Hire an advisor; in my opinion it's well worth the cost for folks that don't have the inclination or knowledge to do it themselves.
  #64  
Old 06-11-2021, 07:22 AM
Proveone Proveone is offline
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Where are you "reading" the Stock Market is going to "Crash"? Did you instead hear it on Fox Noise or Noise Max cable. You better get another financial adviser.
  #65  
Old 06-11-2021, 07:25 AM
JanetMM JanetMM is offline
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Keep in mind if any investment advisor had all the answers they wouldn’t still be working. They would be retired with everyone else working for them. No one can really predict “the Market” because it runs off emotion al reaction to real and unreal events and a world wide reaction to those events. It will go up, it will go down, it will self-correct. “Spread your wealth around” then don’t watch the market daily. That is what your financial guy is supposed to do.
  #66  
Old 06-11-2021, 07:33 AM
ProfessorDave ProfessorDave is offline
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Default Grumpy and Tom gave good advice

Few things. Bases on what you shared you got good advice from Tom and Grumpy. Ignore the cheap seats advice like knowing your age. You explained enough to know a conservative portfolio is best for you. Don't try to time the market. Stick with your plan. Good luck. And chill... you are in The Villages... God's gift to retirees.
  #67  
Old 06-11-2021, 07:36 AM
JoelJohnson JoelJohnson is offline
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A finance professor once told my class to "never invest beyond the sleeping point", in other words, if you have so much invested in the stock market that you can't sleep at night, take some out until you can.
  #68  
Old 06-11-2021, 07:36 AM
Albrita Albrita is offline
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Default Your asset allocation is fine but definitely conservative.

Having said that, 27/73 would be considered very conservative but may be appropriate if it lets you sleep at night. However, most advisors say you need at least 40-50% equities (stocks) to keep up with inflation.

I would suggest you visit bogleheads.org . John Bogle was the founder of Vanguard. Spend some time on the forum. Introduce yourself and ask questions. Explore the Wiki. There is also a recommended reading list.

I relied on Vanguard for three decades and even consolidated Fidelity to Vanguard. Everything was converted to a IRA. I have no idea what Lincoln has for fees for the Mutual funds you probably have but Vanguard has the lowest in the industry the best I can figure. Go to Vanguard.Com as they have a lot of free information, meaning even without an account. I also use Vanguard Brokerage and trade for free. They have helped me sleep better!

Hope that helps.[/QUOTE]
  #69  
Old 06-11-2021, 07:37 AM
Fltpkr Fltpkr is offline
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My suggestion is to check out the forum on Bogleheads. There are many sharp folks that post there with practical advice. Look for threads dealing with newbie or novice investors. Like any forum, do a lot or reading and form your own plan if you can. Otherwise, a fixed fee financial advisor who is a fiduciary may be a good starting point.
  #70  
Old 06-11-2021, 07:43 AM
ronl911 ronl911 is offline
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Default a fixed fee financial advisor who is a fiduciary may be a good starting point!

This is the best answer in the entire thread. Pay the fee, see what they have to say, and go from there. A fiduciary is required by law to act in your best interests. Most likely, you will agree with their recommendations.
  #71  
Old 06-11-2021, 07:46 AM
collie1228 collie1228 is offline
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I would have three comments. One, your investment mix is far from aggressive. In fact, I would consider it quite conservative. Two, everyone talks about a "market crash", but that is very misleading. Market "corrections" (a ten percent or more decrease in overall value) are a normal occurrence, and most knowledgeable investors know that they are actually healthy for markets. Trying to time investments around market corrections is a fools errand. And three, you should find a fiduciary financial advisor who must put your interests before their own. In other words, a fiduciary must give you advice without concern for their possible commissions from investments they suggest. You will have to pay this advisor, but you can generally trust the advice.
  #72  
Old 06-11-2021, 07:53 AM
jcgrether jcgrether is offline
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Default Where to get advice on my 403b?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 View Post
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.
Many good suggestions on how to learn about investing or finding an advisor. However, there may be an easy way to get reasonable advice.

A 403b account is an employer sponsored plan that was typically provided by health, education and governmental type employers. It is, or was, also known as a tax sheltered annuity and used to only be offered through annuity companies. Today, I think many or most 403b plans have both annuity companies (like Lincoln Financial) and mutual fund companies (like Vanguard and Fidelity) to choose from. Before you try and find a professional advisor (a great suggestion by the way) you might contact your HR department at your employer as they may have assistance available.

Annuities are not bad investment vehicles for some situations, but they are more expensive than using a straight low-cost mutual fund family like Vanguard or Fidelity. Some annuities do have the ability to limit the downside potential of market volatility and for some people, this might be attractive.

I would start with your employer and see if they have someone that can help explain the fundamentals that should be considered in your situation.

Good luck
  #73  
Old 06-11-2021, 07:54 AM
Joe C. Joe C. is offline
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I'm by no means a financial wizard. Been retired 19 years, and have only used 30k of my principal in my retirement fund. My recommendation is to contact Blackston Financial (they are on Rt.466) and talk with one of their fiduciary persons. You have nothing to loose, and a lot to gain as far as finances and knowledge. Do it now, before the crap hits the fan.
  #74  
Old 06-11-2021, 07:56 AM
cj1040 cj1040 is offline
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Agree
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  #75  
Old 06-11-2021, 07:57 AM
Becca9800 Becca9800 is offline
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Wow! I'm overwhelmed by the many responses AND by all the knowledge out there. I've read every word of every response, please know that I sincerely appreciate your tips and your time to respond. THANK YOU!!!

Alrighty then, I feel better knowing my money is safe where it's at. It may not be in the best place but I no longer feel an urgent need to move it. And while I didn't want to have to know this stuff, I recognize that I must have at least a basic understanding. Next order of business: read the recommended books (I'm actually a bit excited by the idea of new knowledge) and then begin the hunt for a trusted advisor.

Thanks to each of you again!
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