[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by RoadToad

Inflation was settling before our new economic policies.
Probably not so much going forth.

[CybrSage]

Originally Posted by crash

Dream on when the tariffs hit prices will soar. I am sure you have heard this but probably don’t believe it but tariffs are a tax.

Tariffs literally are not a tax, only Congress has taxing authority.

VAT is a tax and the EU has it on US goods. Why not complain about that actual tax in goods out allies have in place?

[RoboVil]

Tariffs not yet figured in to the inflation report. Expect grain and gasoline/diesel prices to decrease (which affects everything) and just about everything else to increase in the short term. We do seem to be getting a lot of new investment in the country, but it will be a while before that translates into new permanent jobs. Negotiating new trade rules is not a bad idea, but the way it was done was not a good idea. Thanks to Musk, Dimon, and Ackman for getting a change in course. Going to be a wild ride for the next few months at least

[ithos]

Producer Prices Plunged Most Since COVID In March | ZeroHedge

With government spending being abated, maybe we will luck out and the Fed might actually start lowering rates.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Recession impact

Odds of recession = 50 : 50 right now, not zero, and i would estimate much higher than that, but lets start with even.

Recession means negative earnings growth . .
Recession means lower earnings multiplier.

Take the lower earnings numbers and put a lower earnings growth multiple and you can easily get an SnP500 index number which starts with a 4, and at the extreme, which would be 100% all in time to buy, an index number which starts with a 3.

The kick when down would be if the foreign buyers don't buy the US treasuries as they have in the past with the current low interest rates we have right now. . The treasury may have to increase interest rates to sell the bonds to foreigners. .

That is the risk right now for the US economy. . . growth can't be financed cheaply any more. MMT might just be an academic theory which doesn't scale in the real world.

Which means that the bond market, with interest rates which have been in a down trend for 40 years, can't continue to have interest rates in a down trend any longer, after it reached near zero during the pandemic.

So a balanced portfolio with stocks and bonds may not have an increasing value. . that is the current risk. . . doesn't mean it will happen, just means that the odds/probability of it happening are higher. .

good luck to us. .

Investors are running away FROM US treasuries because the rest of the world VIEWS the US as becoming UNSTABLE.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

Investors are running away FROM US treasuries because the rest of the world VIEWS the US as becoming UNSTABLE.

Unstable if you are a headline reader.

Stronger if you understand.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by kkingston57

Dow up 3k on 4-9. Dropped again 4-10 in the AM by around 800. Tariff impact still not known and too many people out there who can't spell economy and believe everything they hear from their favorite news source.

At least now the good CEO's will/should earn their pay in order to plan out the uncertain future. How many children/s toys are made in China and what will they cost when they reach the US?

People tend to believe that our imports from China are LARGER than they really are. In 2016 it was 21% of total imports. Today it is ONLY 13% .

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Normal

CPI for March is negative 0.1 percent. Inflation is finally settling because of our new economic policies.

In general, people may NOT be spending in April because of the unpredictability of the current situation. If we were a CEO thinking of building a new factory, we more likely "table" that idea because of uncertainty. Why NOT hold cash and wait? If businesses and regular people PULL BACK on expenditures, then the economy grinds to a HALT. There could be massive worker layoffs. Then the small % of people with available cash could buy up EVERYTHING at a DISCOUNT.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Dahabs

A little too early for the current admin's policies to be reflected in the March numbers. Shouldn't be too long now.

True. The March numbers are not very meaningful. April numbers may hit like a sledgehammer!

[Whatnext]

Originally Posted by CybrSage

Tariffs literally are not a tax, only Congress has taxing authority.

VAT is a tax and the EU has it on US goods. Why not complain about that actual tax in goods out allies have in place?

VAT is charged on the consumer in Europe on nearly all goods.
Not at point of import or by importer, and definitely not just on US goods.
VAT as an average over Europe is about 20%. It is a Purchase Tax.
Ranging from 8+% in Switzerland, to 27% in Hungary.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by CybrSage

Tariffs literally are not a tax, only Congress has taxing authority.

VAT is a tax and the EU has it on US goods. Why not complain about that actual tax in goods out allies have in place?

A tariff IS a tax on imported products.

[rsmurano]

“Investors are running away FROM US treasuries because the rest of the world VIEWS the US as becoming UNSTABLE.”

This is exactly what an investor wants to hear! This is when you can make some good money. Remember the famous quote from Warren Buffet: "be greedy when others are fearful".

You think the Oracle’s, Broadcom’s, Nvidia, Amazon’s, and thousands of other great companies are going broke/or going out of business? Of course not.
Have cash ready to get into some of these great companies that people are afraid to invest in

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Pballer

Government spending being abated? Congress is proposing tax cuts that far exceed any spending cuts. Defense spending is going up. And no, tax cuts have not and will not pay for themselves. Musk initially claimed that DOGE would save 2 trillion dollars; he has now scaled that back to only 150 billion dollars. I think that number is still inflated.

Agreed. Tax cuts for the RICH NEVER "trickle down". They won't help our MASSIVE debt problem. (actually make a bad thing........WORSE).

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

Agreed. Tax cuts for the RICH NEVER "trickle down". They won't help our MASSIVE debt problem. (actually make a bad thing........WORSE).

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, it does trickle down.
Top 10% account for 50% of consumer spending.

The top 10% is about the only ones paying down the massive debt.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by rsmurano

“Investors are running away FROM US treasuries because the rest of the world VIEWS the US as becoming UNSTABLE.”

This is exactly what an investor wants to hear! This is when you can make some good money. Remember the famous quote from Warren Buffet: "be greedy when others are fearful".

You think the Oracle’s, Broadcom’s, Nvidia, Amazon’s, and thousands of other great companies are going broke/or going out of business? Of course not.
Have cash ready to get into some of these great companies that people are afraid to invest in

Good, big companies will endure. Small and inefficient companies may NOT survive. The trick is to TIME your stock purchases. Buying after 2 consecutive quarters of NEGATIVE GNP would be a possible method. If it is a "V" type of recession, then it would take a quicker reaction to buy.