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  #106  
Old 03-04-2020, 05:44 PM
ColdNoMore ColdNoMore is offline
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Like a rollercoaster!


Whooda thunk, that the biggest news of last night...would make the markets rise so much today?


A lot of 'experts' say though, that you don't get this much volatility, regardless of the short-term news cycle...if the foundation is strong.
  #107  
Old 03-05-2020, 01:30 PM
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....We are so Screwed.

Energy, Finance, MOVE, Repo
  #108  
Old 03-05-2020, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by ColdNoMore View Post
Like a rollercoaster!


Whooda thunk, that the biggest news of last night...would make the markets rise so much today?


A lot of 'experts' say though, that you don't get this much volatility, regardless of the short-term news cycle...if the foundation is strong.
Agree, even though the market is up for the week, the level of volatility is not a good sign.
  #109  
Old 03-06-2020, 05:00 PM
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The Fed tends to catch the falling knife on Fridays at 3:00 PM in order to avert panic selling on Mondays.

What experts? Which ones? Maybe we should all turn on our Idiot Box and have parasitic chimps like little Jimmy Cramer scream at us
  #110  
Old 03-06-2020, 10:49 PM
CoachKandSportsguy CoachKandSportsguy is offline
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Default I am ecstatic that the market is falling

As a long time market participant, who has made a lot of money and lost even more money, I have been in cash and bonds waiting for a correction to get stawks back to a reasonable valuation to re-invest. Traders learn from watching stawks go up and down, why they tend to go down and tend to want to buy them low and then sell them high. I am very short in the market, offsetting some high dividend reits. After buying in TV for retirement, I can't lose money again, as I won't be able to replace it with earnings. Therefore, I do sell when markets are over valued, and wait for the lower prices to buy again. You might think that recent history of the last 30 years of nearly positive yearly returns will last forever, but humans and greed always screw it up. I am short $SPY TSLA, and SQ. am I making a lot of money, no, am I losing any money, hell no!

sorry if your financial advisor might have his best interest at heart at your expense.

sportsguy
  #111  
Old 03-07-2020, 06:57 PM
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I truly hope you are not in the market heavy for Monday. The usual progressive disclosure is slowly taking place. I am not at liberty to disclose my source but I can pass on info a step above hearsay. Do with it what you want.- a major northeastern university is making plans to have any employee capable of working from home to do just that. Is also considering closing the semester after spring break. No students abroad at present aloud to return to school for the remaining of the semester. These are some serious impacts to the economy long term. Expand this thought process ! As a disclosure before being lambasted my primary concern is for all and I truly emphasize all of us here in TV to be healthy. But very concerned about our financial health. Until I see a good bounce back in the market of at least 2 - 3 consecutive days. I see nothing on the near term horizon that warrants that bounce.
  #112  
Old 03-07-2020, 07:32 PM
ColdNoMore ColdNoMore is offline
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I truly hope you are not in the market heavy for Monday. The usual progressive disclosure is slowly taking place. I am not at liberty to disclose my source but I can pass on info a step above hearsay. Do with it what you want.- a major northeastern university is making plans to have any employee capable of working from home to do just that. Is also considering closing the semester after spring break. No students abroad at present aloud to return to school for the remaining of the semester. These are some serious impacts to the economy long term. Expand this thought process ! As a disclosure before being lambasted my primary concern is for all and I truly emphasize all of us here in TV to be healthy. But very concerned about our financial health. Until I see a good bounce back in the market of at least 2 - 3 consecutive days. I see nothing on the near term horizon that warrants that bounce.
Since the DOW's record closing of 29,551.42 set on Feb. 12, 2020, as of yesterday it is down about 12.5% from that high.

While I haven't shorted anything, the adjustments that I made about a year ago...have at least resulted in less than 1/4 of that loss.

While a loss nevertheless, I'm not changing anything soon and am satisfied with staying the course, even though certain people are touting this..."as a great time to buy."

There were those saying the exact same thing and touting that "the fundamentals are sound"...all during 2008 also.

Then again, those are mostly the ones who get paid for the trading itself...regardless of which way the market(s) move.
  #113  
Old 03-07-2020, 09:50 PM
OrangeBlossomBaby OrangeBlossomBaby is offline
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I have some Intel stock. Got it in the late 1970's when it was worth less than 50 cents a share. It's worth over $50 per share now, down from an all-time high of $73-something, back in 2000. It's down just a couple of points over the past month and Intel isn't going out of business any time soon, so I'm not worried.
  #114  
Old 03-08-2020, 06:45 AM
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I’m buying Royal Caribbean and American Airlines on Monday.
  #115  
Old 03-08-2020, 07:25 AM
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I’m buying Royal Caribbean and American Airlines on Monday.
Just before the closing bell...I hope?
  #116  
Old 03-08-2020, 09:10 AM
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Default The defacit

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Originally Posted by Bucco View Post
I, and this is just me who is a pure amateur in this area, the affect of the budget deficit which continues to grow at record pace.

Seems we had a group of people on this forum and in congress (tea party) that absolutely warned us of the dangers of this deficit, yet today are silent.

My little knowledge says this is the most pressing problem because of the time it will take to "fix". Really not sure but that deficit is now in a territory it has never been before.

Realize, we are being had. Say something often enough and people think it is true and it makes sense. We are being told the deficit is. truth I am loosing count, 26 Trillion dollars? Stop, think realize do we understand what one Trillion dollars is let alone 26 Trillion? Who do we owe that money to? Most of us would say China. I looked it up a while ago, actually we owe slightly more to Japan but more important, together Japan and China together hold roughly 20% of our National Debt. More shocking is that Social Security holds 40% of the national debt. All of this is simply insane accounting. If a company, a corporation was doing this we would expect, we would demand that our government close them down. The same government that is feeding us this same
information.
How to pay this debt? The answer is simple. You cannot pay this with a few $10,000 toilet seats. You have to cut the big stuff and that is Education, Military, and Welfare (Social Security) of course the people will scream. What they will say, what we will say is cut him not me. Increase his taxes not mine.
So far we've paid the deficit with slight of hand. Interest on a 10 year treasury is below 1%-the lowest in American history. Our Fed is telling us they want a 2% rate of inflation.
Oh and you, if you buy a Treasury pay whatever your highest Federal tax rate in that below 1% that they will pay you.
You are, we are being had.
  #117  
Old 03-08-2020, 09:25 AM
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Default I Do Not have solutions but

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Originally Posted by ColdNoMore View Post

I would proffer that to "distort" a fact, there needs to be at least...a grain of truth.

With a 1,000 point drop of the DJIA, that grain of truth in "great"...does not exist in any form of the definition.
Far as stock market losses. I don't recall the number but we've been told ??? 3-4 Trillion have been lost. I dare to ask, I dare to see, if money is real it cannot simply disappear-E=MC2. Thus, it is not real. In fact 80% or so of the dollars floating about do not exist as coins or worthless paper-just computer figures.
Current screaming about a 15.00 minimum wage. Since the dollar is not a true standard as is an inch, a yard, or in metric a centimeter etc all that matters is how long you need to work to buy ?????? People simply do not understand reality. If, you/we raise the minimum wage, everyone earning more than minimum will want, will demand a raise.
The result is a loss of real value of the American Dollar. Simple slight of hand, will reduce the real value of the national debt.
We are being had and it is not one party doing it.
  #118  
Old 03-08-2020, 09:32 AM
CoachKandSportsguy CoachKandSportsguy is offline
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um, i would not be in a rush to buy based upon a level of any number at the moment. Why? the bond market rates are telling us that something is happening of which we do not know, but will know sometime in the future. The interest rates on treasury bills and notes and bonds are the lowest since the depression, and that was a long time ago and through a lot of ups and downs. It is true that the treasury is managing the supply to keep the interest rates low, and that the current environment is that the world can buy treasuries, which are a lot more customers than just the us domestic population, which distorts the demand to supply relationship of the past.

The interest rate on the 10 year note is below one percent, about 0.78% which means that if you have $1M dollars and bought 10 year us government bonds, you would get $7,800 a year in interest for the next ten years. and in 10 years, that will be $5,600 of buying power in todays world after inflation.

What this means is that smart investors are pricing in a credit event, similar to 2007, somewhere, and the two most likely places are the oil industry, and the hospitality industry. The oil industry due to the actions of Saudi Arabia late last week, driving down prices and increasing supply being ****ed at Russia for not participating in the opec supply cut, and the probability of bankruptcies in high debt , marginal cash low hospitality companies, large and small, primarily in the corporate debt market.

So just like buffet sat on his hand for two years and did nothing in the early 70s, until the valuations were ridiculous cheap, now is not the time to try to catch a falling knife, as the future shape of the economic recovery may be an L versus a V. Hence my not owning much equities and waiting for a large devaluation before buying again.

YMMV

sportsguy
  #119  
Old 03-08-2020, 09:44 AM
rustyp rustyp is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAVES View Post
Realize, we are being had. Say something often enough and people think it is true and it makes sense. We are being told the deficit is. truth I am loosing count, 26 Trillion dollars? Stop, think realize do we understand what one Trillion dollars is let alone 26 Trillion? Who do we owe that money to? Most of us would say China. I looked it up a while ago, actually we owe slightly more to Japan but more important, together Japan and China together hold roughly 20% of our National Debt. More shocking is that Social Security holds 40% of the national debt. All of this is simply insane accounting. If a company, a corporation was doing this we would expect, we would demand that our government close them down. The same government that is feeding us this same
information.
How to pay this debt? The answer is simple. You cannot pay this with a few $10,000 toilet seats. You have to cut the big stuff and that is Education, Military, and Welfare (Social Security) of course the people will scream. What they will say, what we will say is cut him not me. Increase his taxes not mine.
So far we've paid the deficit with slight of hand. Interest on a 10 year treasury is below 1%-the lowest in American history. Our Fed is telling us they want a 2% rate of inflation.
Oh and you, if you buy a Treasury pay whatever your highest Federal tax rate in that below 1% that they will pay you.
You are, we are being had.
The national debt is $23.4 trillion. That is how much the government owes total. The deficit for 2020 is projected at over $1 trillion. The deficit is the difference between how much we spend in a year Vs how much we collect. Thus for 2020 we are projecting to add another $1 trillion to the debt making it close to $25 trillion.

Now for the scary part. You are correct that most people do not realize what a trillion is. Here is a good way to visualize a trillion. It uses time as the base:

- A million seconds = a little more than 12 days
- A trillion seconds = 32,000 years (yes I said 32 thousand no decimal point error).
  #120  
Old 03-08-2020, 10:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAVES View Post
Realize, we are being had. Say something often enough and people think it is true and it makes sense. We are being told the deficit is. truth I am loosing count, 26 Trillion dollars? Stop, think realize do we understand what one Trillion dollars is let alone 26 Trillion? Who do we owe that money to? Most of us would say China. I looked it up a while ago, actually we owe slightly more to Japan but more important, together Japan and China together hold roughly 20% of our National Debt. More shocking is that Social Security holds 40% of the national debt. All of this is simply insane accounting. If a company, a corporation was doing this we would expect, we would demand that our government close them down. The same government that is feeding us this same
information.
How to pay this debt? The answer is simple. You cannot pay this with a few $10,000 toilet seats. You have to cut the big stuff and that is Education, Military, and Welfare (Social Security) of course the people will scream. What they will say, what we will say is cut him not me. Increase his taxes not mine.
So far we've paid the deficit with slight of hand. Interest on a 10 year treasury is below 1%-the lowest in American history. Our Fed is telling us they want a 2% rate of inflation.
Oh and you, if you buy a Treasury pay whatever your highest Federal tax rate in that below 1% that they will pay you.
You are, we are being had.
Agree with a lot of what you stated, specifically that our countries deficit/debt level is the most toxic cloud hanging over our country’s future. There is no way to reduce our deficit and pay down our debt without severe pain. The longer our leaders take to finally address the problem, the bigger the bubble gets. The bigger the bubble gets, the worse the explosion will be when the bubble finally bursts.

Long standing financial theory has been thrown out the window. Interest rates used to be set so that bond holders would earn a REAL rate of return, above the inflation rate. If inflation was expected to run at 2%, interest rates used to be set around 3 1/2 to 4%. When the economy was good, higher rates would keep the economy from overheating and keep inflation in check. Good economy’s were not fueled by low rates and cheap debt, but rather real fundamentally solid underlying economic growth. Then when the economy began to slow down, and inflation resulantly became less of a concern, there was adequate room to lower rates TEMPORARILY to reignite the economy while still providing bond holders with a positive REAL, inflation adjusted, rate of return. During strong economies, our country ran a budget SURPLUS and PAID DOWN our debt, leaving comfortably breathing room to run TEMPORARY deficits during periods of economic slowdown.

Unfortunately, sound historical financial and economic logic and theory has been abandoned. Interest rates are no longer set to allow bond holders to earn a REAL rate of return, we run huge budget defects every year regardless of the strength of the economy, our national debt never gets paid down but instead grows at an exponential pace, and economic growth is fueled by cheap borrowing and ever increasing debt, not strong underlying fundamentals. We learned nothing from the last severe housing market economic crisis fueled by cheap and poorly underwritten debt and unstainable leverage. Instead of learning from our mistakes, our country doubled down on the same mistakes. Unsustainable economic practices can survive for a long time and nobody really knows when the bubble will finally burst, just that eventually it is inevitable.

One thing about the above post that I can’t let go and have to comment on is the statement that social security is welfare. Both social security and Medicare are often referred to as entitlements and in lesser references welfare. Both programs are in the crosshairs of the easiest way for the government to cut it’s out of control spending. Welfare is designed for the needy that are not capable of providing entirely for themselves and entitlements are handouts to people who did little or nothing to earn them. As someone who paid into both of those programs for my entire working career, I do not feel that I am entitled to receive benefits and the benefits I am owed certainly are not welfare. The benefits I expect to receive from these programs are OWED to me as repayment for all the money I paid into the programs over my working career. If I was able to keep all the money I paid into those programs, and invest it myself, then I wouldn’t need the benefits or be owed anything.
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