[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Andyb

I think the one thing that is keeping the market going right now is the spending of the baby boomers. The Boomers for the most part, lived during the best economic times in America and have accumulated a lot of wealth. The Boomers are in the fourth quarter of life and are not holding back in their spending in retirement. When this cycle ends, watch out. No political party is going to solve the problem, we are too far gone.

The way I read about it, US people over 65 represent ONLY about 6% of the population. I thought that companies marketed to the under-30 crowd because they are a large % and they need more toys so they spend more.

[spinner1001]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

LOL! i have tried to get some programming logic out of it, and it took several attempts. . and some of the answers are flat out wrong, but some will find it helpful as they better learn prompt design to get the best answer out of it. .

The ChatGPT financial portfolio is NOT doing well, last i read and looked. . so again, its very early stages, but also a very dangerous piece of software. It will enable people who want to perform evil to do so more easily, as well as give Dunning Kruger types information which they won't know how to use properly. .

Are you using ChatGPT 3.5 or 4? ChatGPT 3.5 is the free version. The pay version is ChatGPT 4. I recall that 4 costs $20 per month. I have not subscribed. I hear that 4 is noticeably better than 3.5.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by nn0wheremann

Well, the market returns have usually beat my mattress's returns, though it seems for the last 24 months I am down 10% after expenses. Might be time to change horses.

Or mattresses.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by rsmurano

The famous line 1.5 years ago: even a 12 year old could have seen this downturn coming. I sold out most everything 1/1/2022 and got back into oil fund last year for a few months, money market fund that pays over 5%, got into apple late last year and got out a couple months ago, in a tech index fund, and bought into an AI company. Most of our money is in 5.x% money market.
IMO, we are heading for a crash, just as big as 2007/2008. Consumer debt, China downturn, insolvent banks, only 7 stocks supporting the whole market, federal reserve is clueless, corrupt administration.

I would have to disagree. The Fed Reserve is NOT clueless. The current administration is doing well on the economy and trying to provide jobs to the vanishing middle class where jobs are most needed.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by Boomer

Fly first class or your kids will.

Boomer

the proper term is to ski

"spending kids' inheritance"

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by spinner1001

Are you using ChatGPT 3.5 or 4? ChatGPT 3.5 is the free version. The pay version is ChatGPT 4. I recall that 4 costs $20 per month. I have not subscribed. I hear that 4 is noticeably better than 3.5.

3.5, as I don't have a huge need to pay for this service. .

[CoachKandSportsguy]

btw, for anyone reading the individual posts,

The trading robot developer I follow, who basically mints money with about a 20% return per year, and his robots have been trained on data starting in the 1980s,

gave CRASH warning with a 70% down probability / 30% up probability for tomorrow, Tuesday, Aug 21st. .
a crash is more than 1% move i believe. . . currently, the robots have a full hedge on his portfolio. .
the hedge started at 4390 last week. . crash not confirmed by second robot. .

for those who don't always believe that the market is impossible to forecast, we will see. .
I am positioned $SPY for the 30% up for other reasons, with a full hedge on with NOV SPY puts, using a friend's 39 day market trading cycle expecting a blast up as also confirmed with some options cyclical patterns i found looking for 1% days to trade. .

might work, might not work. . and if nothing happens. . . all good as well. .

[HandyGrandpap]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

btw, for anyone reading the individual posts,

The trading robot developer I follow, who basically mints money with about a 20% return per year, and his robots have been trained on data starting in the 1980s,

gave CRASH warning with a 70% down probability / 30% up probability for tomorrow, Tuesday, Aug 21st. .
a crash is more than 1% move i believe. . . currently, the robots have a full hedge on his portfolio. .
the hedge started at 4390 last week. . crash not confirmed by second robot. .

for those who don't always believe that the market is impossible to forecast, we will see. .
I am positioned $SPY for the 30% up for other reasons, with a full hedge on with NOV SPY puts, using a friend's 39 day market trading cycle expecting a blast up as also confirmed with some options cyclical patterns i found looking for 1% days to trade. .

might work, might not work. . and if nothing happens. . . all good as well. .

Hey OP, you need to reprogram you AI robot as tomorrow is the 22nd! opps, (a bit of levity) thanks

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by HandyGrandpap

Hey OP, you need to reprogram you AI robot as tomorrow is the 22nd! opps, (a bit of levity) thanks

i'm retired, i actually just go by the day of the week,
the numbers are so many i can't keep up with them each month. .

seriously

[Mrfriendly]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

I would have to disagree. The Fed Reserve is NOT clueless. The current administration is doing well on the economy and trying to provide jobs to the vanishing middle class where jobs are most needed.

Curious, what type of jobs is the government trying to provide to the vanishing middle class?
All I see is the tremendous amount of spending with no end in sight and it follows that with a positive spin rhetoric I don’t believe.

[Caymus]

Does the robot consider increases in theft? I notice that Dick's is down over 20% this morning based on theft concerns.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

I would have to disagree. The Fed Reserve is NOT clueless. The current administration is doing well on the economy and trying to provide jobs to the vanishing middle class where jobs are most needed.

Fed could do a much better job, way to late trying to curb inflation. These higher interest rates will cause structural problems in ways nobody is even talking about.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by Caymus

Does the robot consider increases in theft? I notice that Dick's is down over 20% this morning based on theft concerns.

doubtful, but so far what ever the robots saw, hasn't materialized yet, and I closed out my longs this morning. .

Interestingly, the robots are programmed to buy stocks at extremely undervalued prices, which can be more reasonably programmed versus an over valued overhyped stock where the fundamentals don't matter. . bargains can be programmed as a value play, bubbles cannot be. .

CA theft is ridiculous, and all the stores should leave CA and see how the government and their constituents like the results of their decisions.

The other point to remember is that Passive ETFS buy and hold and are price INSENSITIVE. . . so who then causes price movement? active fund managers. .

as passive is about 50% of the stock ownership, active owns the rest, and active as a percentage of tradeable float, which is total float minus passive holdings, creates increased volatility, due to 50% of the float being tradeable. .

So where as Dick's might have been a 10% correction today, it turned into a 20% correction due to about 50% of the shares being held in passive accounts. . who don't care what the price is. .

This is where an individual stock has a much higher event risk stock movement, as seen today with Dicks, which is why the diversified ETF by industry is always the better purchase. .

[Boomer]

The most recent episode of PBS WealthTrack was an interview with Burton Malkiel who wrote the classic A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 50 years ago. (I think this episode first aired a little over a year ago, but I cannot imagine this guy has changed his mind.)

Sounds like he and Bogle were buddies. It is interesting to hear what happened when Bogle first introduced the index fund.

Malkiel’s book has had several updates, but his basic strategy still holds true — in spite of robots and formulas and ESG investing and all that other stuff that’s out there to talk about now.

I am throwing this info in here because I think some of you might want to see this interview, especially those who really like their index funds.

If you are interested in old-school, simple investing advice, you might want to Google wealthtrack.com and Burton Malkiel and you will find the episode. Besides, an old man with real knowledge and experience is a lot more fun to listen to than a robot.

Boomer

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Mrfriendly

Curious, what type of jobs is the government trying to provide to the vanishing middle class?
All I see is the tremendous amount of spending with no end in sight and it follows that with a positive spin rhetoric I don’t believe.

Road repair and road construction.