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-   -   Tariff Stare Down (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/tariff-stare-down-357929/)

Aces4 04-10-2025 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danube (Post 2422877)
Nope.

About 9.8% of China’s foreign trade in 2024 was with the United States.

It's no longer the 70's.

China's products are all over America. They just got clever and ship them out through different venues.

AI Overview
Some countries, like Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Malaysia, have been identified as playing a role in facilitating the export of Chinese products to the US, potentially to evade tariffs, by shifting assembly operations to these countries and then exporting finished goods to the US from there.

Aces4 04-10-2025 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by opinionist (Post 2422886)
Tyrants cannot understand that they don't have the leverage. Yes, China can shut off the few goods imported from the US. Can they sell their cheap stuff elsewhere? We will find out.

The EU has advised China not to plan on dumping their extra product on them and hurting their economy.

coconutmama 04-10-2025 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by coralway (Post 2422868)
Nothing to do with tariffs. Market manipulation. Those who were in the know before tariffs were announced sold, and avoided the slaughter. Pure market manipulation.

Insider Trading

Aces4 04-10-2025 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paper1 (Post 2422891)
Someone on this forum will have to explain to me how replacing foreign made goods with union made US products is going to tame inflation. Two weeks ago China was allowing us to purchase real goods and products with freshly printed US dollars that have nothing backing them up. Heavily criticized Walmart has kept more families in middle class than anything I’m aware except for those freshly printed dollars. The old saying comes to mind, “be careful what you ask for”. IMHO

We get such a deal don't we? While we buy low quality stuff from China and save all that money, we then peel out a fortune in taxes at home for the jobless, Medicaid, food stamps, housing/rental assistance and so forth.

coconutmama 04-10-2025 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillyGrown (Post 2422913)
Tariffs certainly put Japan in their place back in the early 70s. Thankfully everything seems to be handled well so far. There are too too many microeconomic views here on this forum while our leadership has a much more macroeconomic view that will help us all in the long run. Alas, is instant gratification creeping into our senior population?

No. Not instant gratification. We want to be alive to see our economy & 401K’s get back to where they were a few months ago.

Normal 04-10-2025 09:14 AM

About right
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2422944)
We get such a deal don't we? While we buy low quality stuff from China and save all that money, we then peel out a fortune in taxes at home for the unemployed, Medicaid, food stamps, housing/rental assistance and so forth.

Yes, that’s what it amounts to. Walmart and Dollar General will have to establish new supply chains. Actually Dollar General should be named Chinese Mart.

The CHIPs and American Science Act Boondoggle of waste is now being replaced with action and reality. If only we could claw back that 200 billion in waste. Hopefully we get chip manufacturing up and running fast enough here. We actually had great numbers for inflation this month at negative.1 percent.

Aces4 04-10-2025 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rustyp (Post 2422908)
I agree. Let's not forget prices were to be lower day 1. Day 1 of what ? How long will it take to build a factory, hire, train, modify supply lines, etc. Now how does that compete with cheap labor ? Keep feeding us the smoke and mirror tricks. Eggs down 79%. Well that means they are still higher. So what is the strategy? Prices will dramatically increase fairly quickly then we announce some stop gap plan and inflation rate slows some over the short term chaos that was just created. At the same time we start selectively removing the new tariffs that were just incorporated. There you go - success. Smoke em if you got em. I have a list of a dozen goods like grocery, gas, auto, etc all from local venders in our area on Jan 19 2025. I'll publish that list Jan 19 2026. Any bets - prices up or down.

When factories were closed down and moved overseas, it wasn't because the American worker quit.. it was because of the artificially low priced products being dumped here from offshore manufacturing. Artificially because we all pay out of our pockets for the jobless population, big time.

I miss the high quality products from American hands. Shoes, clothing, machinery, furniture.. you name it. Now we have a lot of disposable cr*p.

Aces4 04-10-2025 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by coconutmama (Post 2422945)
No. Not instant gratification. We want to be alive to see our economy & 401K’s get back to where they were a few months ago.

If you're over 65 and still at the casino shooting craps, (stock market), you've been exposed to volatility when you should be in safe investments and FDIC insured.

The market will recover, it always does eventually. If you are invested in China, you may be out of luck.

SoCalGal 04-10-2025 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kkingston57 (Post 2422801)
Islands inhabited with penguins only were 1st in line.

You understand why uninhabited islands were included, right?

Tariffs, which imposed a baseline 10% tax on imports from over 180 countries and territories, included remote and uninhabited locations like the Heard and McDonald Islands, an Australian territory in the sub-Antarctic with no human population. Several explanations have emerged for this unusual decision.

One key rationale, articulated by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, is the aim to close potential loopholes in trade policy. Lutnick argued that listing even uninhabited territories prevents other countries from exploiting them as conduits to ship goods into the U.S. and evade tariffs. This perspective suggests a deliberate strategy to ensure no region, regardless of its population or economic activity, could be used to circumvent the tariffs, drawing from past experiences where countries like China rerouted exports through third parties during Trump's first term.

SoCalGal 04-10-2025 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danube (Post 2422877)
Nope.

About 9.8% of China’s foreign trade in 2024 was with the United States. It's no longer in the 70's.

In the early 2000s, the U.S. was a much larger destination for Chinese exports, often accounting for 20-25% of China’s total export market. By 2018, this had already dropped to around 19% of exports (still higher than the 2024 figure). Total trade (exports plus imports) with the U.S. made up a larger share as well—closer to 13-15% in the mid-2010s. The decline reflects China’s growing trade with regions like Southeast Asia, the EU, and Belt and Road countries, alongside trade war tariffs and supply chain shifts starting in 2018.

A 70% share would imply an overwhelming dependence on the U.S. market, which never materialized. China’s trade has always been spread across multiple partners—Hong Kong, Japan, Europe, and others—even before its modern diversification push. The U.S. influence was substantial but never approached that extreme level, even in the most U.S.-centric years.

rustyp 04-10-2025 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2422949)
When factories were closed down and moved overseas, it wasn't because the American worker quit.. it was because of the artificially low priced products being dumped here from offshore manufacturing. Artificially because we all pay out of our pockets for the jobless population, big time.

I miss the high quality products from American hands. Shoes, clothing, machinery, furniture.. you name it. Now we have a lot of disposable cr*p.

My Toyota Camry delivers me all the quality I require.
My $198 50 inch Onn tv works just fine.
My Whirlpool dishwasher broke in December.

jimjamuser 04-10-2025 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoMo50 (Post 2422844)
Not naive at all. This was a move on the global chessboard thought out well in advance. And yes...the "saving face" aspect plays into the anticipated response.

China's economy simply does not work without the markets in the USA. Period. They have effectively been placed into a box, all alone. We'll see how they respond.

I am wondering how this global economic fight initiated by the US helps world economics. And then is there any :unintended consequences that get reflected back on the US. We certainly are NOT making any FRIENDS in the free world. And I wonder if we are making any friends in the non-free world?

GWilliams 04-10-2025 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MorTech (Post 2422723)
Looks like China and the EU are the only ones not to blink :)

Negotiations are ongoing.

fdpaq0580 04-10-2025 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GWilliams (Post 2422996)
Negotiations are ongoing.

Tariffs on hold for 90 days? Sounds like "we (?)" blinked when they didn't.

fdpaq0580 04-10-2025 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by waterflower (Post 2422900)
Currency war

AKA "economic terrorism" by some.


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