Where is the Bottom to Dow Jones?

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  #46  
Old 03-20-2020, 02:58 PM
wyealbert wyealbert is offline
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Originally Posted by karostay View Post
That's the million dollar question
Try TRILLION dollar.
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  #47  
Old 03-20-2020, 03:19 PM
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Topspinmo Topspinmo is offline
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Wall Street big Ponzi scheme ran by billionaires. They control the market. At first hint of crisis they sell off which drive the markets way down, after all the peons have panic and lost most of they investments, the insiders Billionaire with Hugh cash buy in when its low enough for them to make Hugh profit. Now that the real players have brought back in it drives the market up. Now they wait for the next fabricated crisis. The smart little guy figures this out and sells off while market high before the insiders sell off And cause crash. You’re stock broker only cares about his fees that they suck off you’re Investment could care less if you make any money but keep you suckered in for his fee’s.
  #48  
Old 03-20-2020, 04:10 PM
valuemkt valuemkt is offline
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It can;t go below zero unless you trade on margin.
  #49  
Old 04-06-2020, 08:18 AM
DougandLaddi DougandLaddi is offline
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With all the negative news of getting ready for a couple of real bad weeks coming, you would of thought the DOW would be in a futures nose dive this morning but it is up over $700 so just maybe !! I normally would less likely to think this way but the market will be the first one to know.
  #50  
Old 04-06-2020, 08:23 AM
retiredguy123 retiredguy123 is online now
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Originally Posted by DougandLaddi View Post
With all the negative news of getting ready for a couple of real bad weeks coming, you would of thought the DOW would be in a futures nose dive this morning but it is up over $700 so just maybe !! I normally would less likely to think this way but the market will be the first one to know.
The stock market has already "factored in" the bad weeks coming. That is the way it works, and why it is so difficult to time the market.
  #51  
Old 04-07-2020, 07:47 AM
collie1228 collie1228 is offline
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Trying to time the market bottom is a fool's errand. From the famous words of one of the most esteemed investors in history, Warren Buffett, to be a successful investor, “simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful (Mar 6, 2020).” Stocks are on sale right now, and there is nothing wrong with investing during a crisis. It will end at some point, and stocks will rise in price. It may be today, it might be next year, but stocks will rise again.
  #52  
Old 04-14-2020, 10:38 AM
Two Bills Two Bills is offline
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Originally Posted by collie1228 View Post
Trying to time the market bottom is a fool's errand. From the famous words of one of the most esteemed investors in history, Warren Buffett, to be a successful investor, “simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful (Mar 6, 2020).” Stocks are on sale right now, and there is nothing wrong with investing during a crisis. It will end at some point, and stocks will rise in price. It may be today, it might be next year, but stocks will rise again.
Absolutely, and with the prospect of some restrictions being lifted shortly, now may be the time to buy.
What to buy I haven't a clue.
Personally, went into cash bonds when retired to avoid this rollercoaster stuff.
However if I was still in the game, I would punt very soon.
Fiirst bit of goverment 'good news' and it will be 'Wacky Races' time.
JMO.
  #53  
Old 04-14-2020, 10:58 AM
OrangeBlossomBaby OrangeBlossomBaby is offline
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I only know about my own stocks. One, Lane Bryant, dissolved years ago, and my stock certificate is just a piece of nostalgia now, with no value at all.

I traded in my Israel bonds a decade after they matured, so I got a net profit from that.

Water Company was bought out by another company, which bought out all shareholders for pennies over the most it had ever traded for. So while I would've liked to remain invested another decade, I got to enjoy quarterly dividend checks for many many years, and I got the initial investment of $500 plus another $10,000 back.

Intel has been through a roller coaster since I got my first 10 shares. Doubled and split, then doubled again and tanked, then went up and down again, recession, dot-com bubble and bust, tech innovations, the current administration's back and forth against Huwei, and now the COVID-19 situation. After all is said and done, my stock is hovering near $60/share. That's pretty much where it's been for the past couple of years. It's also around $20/share more than it had been, except for an enormous spike around 2000/2001.
  #54  
Old 04-14-2020, 03:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Dcurrie911 View Post
I’m predicting two lows. The first will be directly related to the virus which I think will bottom at about 17500. The markets will start to recover but then the economic impacts will surface maybe 1-2 qtrs later sending the market down again. 13000-15000 depending on how long and how much more is shut down. IMHO
April 14

Dow 23949 +2.39%
NASDAQ 8515 +3.95%
S&P 2846 +3.06%
  #55  
Old 04-18-2020, 03:21 PM
ColdNoMore ColdNoMore is offline
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As of yesterday, the DOW closed at 24,242.49.

After watching it run up on Thursday, but not stay, I decided to put everything into a fixed fund that guarantees only 3.5%.

Ironically, since I did it online after closing on Thursday it didn't take effect until after Friday's close so I actually saw an increase...over what I thought I had "locked in."

I'm very happy with what I've made since 2009 after a very steady and substantial rise after the Great Recession, but am afraid that when the realization that the massive stimulus currently being sent out will still result in thousands of businesses going under...it's going to be really ugly in a few months.

While I hope I'm wrong, I wouldn't be surprised to see the DJIA down in the 14,000-15,000 range by June.

And if I'm wrong and miss out...so be it.

The only thing I know for a fact regarding my investments is that I'm not going to worry about them...for a while.
  #56  
Old 04-18-2020, 10:31 PM
DON10E DON10E is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Two Bills View Post
Absolutely, and with the prospect of some restrictions being lifted shortly, now may be the time to buy.
What to buy I haven't a clue.
Personally, went into cash bonds when retired to avoid this rollercoaster stuff.
However if I was still in the game, I would punt very soon.
Fiirst bit of goverment 'good news' and it will be 'Wacky Races' time.
JMO.
Consider being very careful about holding bond funds. The ten year treasury bond is selling close to .6%. Not 6% but point-6 %. There's not a lot of room to drop from here. If rates go up the value of bond funds will drop. A rate increase from .6 to 1.2 could cause a 50% drop in the value of bond funds, depending on the bond maturities. Rates have never been lower in our lifetimes (well, mine anyway).

You said you're in cash bonds. Cash is an asset class and bonds are an asset class, but cash bonds is not an asset class, so decide how much of this post actually applies to you. Be careful. Also, feel free to ignore anything I say.

Good luck. Wash your hands!
😄
  #57  
Old 04-18-2020, 11:00 PM
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We will never know where the real bottom of the market is unless the Fed stops artificially supporting it by pumping unprecidented amounts of liquidity into it. A real market is supported by underlying economic fundamentals, not the Fed. There seems to be a very large disconnect between Main St. and Wall St.
  #58  
Old 04-18-2020, 11:03 PM
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Originally Posted by DON10E View Post
Consider being very careful about holding bond funds. The ten year treasury bond is selling close to .6%. Not 6% but point-6 %. There's not a lot of room to drop from here. If rates go up the value of bond funds will drop. A rate increase from .6 to 1.2 could cause a 50% drop in the value of bond funds, depending on the bond maturities. Rates have never been lower in our lifetimes (well, mine anyway).

You said you're in cash bonds. Cash is an asset class and bonds are an asset class, but cash bonds is not an asset class, so decide how much of this post actually applies to you. Be careful. Also, feel free to ignore anything I say.

Good luck. Wash your hands!
Totally agree, bonds are a suckers play at these rate levels, especially with the eventual inflation that has to occur (declining value of the US $) because of how much the Fed is increasing the money supply. And that is only talking about US Treasury bonds, Corporate bonds will have it much worse with increased default rates.
  #59  
Old 04-19-2020, 12:39 AM
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Personally, I couldn't care less. I got out of that money-making (or losing) roller coaster a long time ago and have never been so relaxed about my finances. I don't have to get rich, but I do have to live without constant worries about money. Retirement should be just that and not be about getting richer. Try to enjoy it.
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  #60  
Old 04-19-2020, 12:53 PM
Paper1 Paper1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tophcfa View Post
We will never know where the real bottom of the market is unless the Fed stops artificially supporting it by pumping unprecidented amounts of liquidity into it. A real market is supported by underlying economic fundamentals, not the Fed. There seems to be a very large disconnect between Main St. and Wall St.
Clearly there are a number of people contributing to this thread that know a hell of a lot more than I do about economics but you have identified the root case of what I think is going to eventually have a devastating impact on this economy and stock market when bill comes due. I have been concerned about the reckless election year stimulus spending for this virus and wondered why with this level of added debt, unemployment skyrocketing at never before seen rate, and people dying from the virus that the stock market is recovering at record rate. The answer is the same reason bank CD's have been paying 1% for years and will continue to do so unless economy crashes altogether. Since 2008 Fed has been enabling and seemingly encouraging congress's complete disregard for national debt. This is not about market fundamentals.Thank you for letting me add my two cents.
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