[roscoguy]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

Sorry, but it was pretty obvious from the type of vaccine, it's mechanism of action and the nature of coronaviruses in general that the outcome would be what it was. The only thing that surprised me was HOW EFFECTIVE the vaccine was in the real world.

Obvious to you but no recognized authorities? Right...

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

As far as your posts, of course you're joking. If you were serious you'd be suffering from advanced dementia

Likewise, I knew you couldn't actually believe that drivel you wrote unless your degree came in a box of Cracker Jacks. The bottom line still is that a vaccinated person CAN infect someone else, even if the odds are against it. (This was the original difference of opinion, if you recall) You threw in the "fully vaccinated" as well as took the imperious position that "you CANNOT get the virus, you CANNOT spread the virus, and you CANNOT infect others. Period. PERIOD!!!!!"

Looking at the numbers you most recently posted from another perspective, and totally disregarding to extent what these 5800 were "infected", that means you have roughly a 1 in 13,000 chance of still getting Covid. Fairly long odds, but nowhere near vanishingly small, I'm sure you'd agree.

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by roscoguy

Obvious to you but no recognized authorities? Right...

Likewise, I knew you couldn't actually believe that drivel you wrote unless your degree came in a box of Cracker Jacks. The bottom line still is that a vaccinated person CAN infect someone else, even if the odds are against it. (This was the original difference of opinion, if you recall) You threw in the "fully vaccinated" as well as took the imperious position that "you CANNOT get the virus, you CANNOT spread the virus, and you CANNOT infect others. Period. PERIOD!!!!!"

Looking at the numbers you most recently posted from another perspective, and totally disregarding to extent what these 5800 were "infected", that means you have roughly a 1 in 13,000 chance of still getting Covid. Fairly long odds, but nowhere near vanishingly small, I'm sure you'd agree.

It's easier to snatch a bone back from a Doberman than for you to admit defeat and move on. 0.008%---seriously, you can't be hanging on to that as a chance of getting and spreading COVID.

[bobdeb]

My neck is getting a workout watching this tennis match...

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

.0008 is infinitely larger than 0.

There's "no chance"
there's "virtually no chance"
there's "essentially no chance" "barely any chance at all" "nearly impossible" - the only difference between any of these terms, is that "no chance" means "no chance." All the others mean "at least some chance."

.008 is not "no chance." It is "at least some chance." No matter how minute, anything higher than 0 is still - higher than 0.

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

.0008 is infinitely larger than 0.

There's "no chance"
there's "virtually no chance"
there's "essentially no chance" "barely any chance at all" "nearly impossible" - the only difference between any of these terms, is that "no chance" means "no chance." All the others mean "at least some chance."

.008 is not "no chance." It is "at least some chance." No matter how minute, anything higher than 0 is still - higher than 0.

You too? I expected better from you.

[Bill14564]

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

.0008 is infinitely larger than 0.

There's "no chance"
there's "virtually no chance"
there's "essentially no chance" "barely any chance at all" "nearly impossible" - the only difference between any of these terms, is that "no chance" means "no chance." All the others mean "at least some chance."

.008 is not "no chance." It is "at least some chance." No matter how minute, anything higher than 0 is still - higher than 0.

The words "hotels.com" flashed through my mind at this.

If we take .008% and multiply that by the population of the US we would get 26,400. That number is pretty close to the number of deaths expected from a typical flu season. But the .008% number is not the rate of deaths after vaccination, it is the rate of infection after vaccination. The rate of deaths is about 1.2% of those infected or 337.

So if everyone in the US was vaccinated but somehow the virus was still circulating then with the numbers recently reported by the CDC, there might be 26,400 breakthrough cases and 337 deaths.

Of course 337 is not zero, but it is less than one half the current daily count, 100 times less than the 35,000 we expect from flu, and almost 2,000 times less than the current count of 560,000. Compared to the 2M to 4M that was projected a year ago, 337 is pretty close to zero.

[roscoguy]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

It's easier to snatch a bone back from a Doberman than for you to admit defeat and move on. 0.008%---seriously, you can't be hanging on to that as a chance of getting and spreading COVID.

1 in 13,000 is defeat? Not at all. By that 'logic', one could say that one CANNOT get a blood clot from the J&J vaccine. Period. PERIOD!!!!!, which is more than 70 times more likely, given the last data that I've heard. You prefer to use the percentage number, perhaps because it sounds so much smaller than the rate of incidence. The trouble is, 1/13000 or .008% are both greater than '...CANNOT ... Period. PERIOD!!!!!'. Don't ya' hate it when math & reality come together to smack down your victory dance?

Well, honestly, dock, I'm glad to know that you can take a good-natured ribbing, but we've worn this discussion out! Let's just agree that you were wrong & move on.

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by roscoguy

1 in 13,000 is defeat? Not at all. By that 'logic', one could say that one CANNOT get a blood clot from the J&J vaccine. Period. PERIOD!!!!!, which is more than 70 times more likely, given the last data that I've heard. You prefer to use the percentage number, perhaps because it sounds so much smaller than the rate of incidence. The trouble is, 1/13000 or .008% are both greater than '...CANNOT ... Period. PERIOD!!!!!'. Don't ya' hate it when math & reality come together to smack down your victory dance?

Well, honestly, dock, I'm glad to know that you can take a good-natured ribbing, but we've worn this discussion out! Let's just agree that you were wrong & move on.

Well, yes, but clearly YOU are the one who is wrong! (You cannot extrapolate group epidemiologic data and apply it to a few individuals)

[Bay Kid]

Heading to my boat today for a little cruise on the beautiful Chesapeake Bay. Drinks included.

[billethkid]

Working at 6 or more decimal places one can make a case for/against/about anything.

An obvious percentage risk tolerance/acceptance is that of being killed or maimed in an auto accident.....every time one gets in the car.....and this one is in very large whole numbers

Introduction - Injury Facts

[roscoguy]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

Well, yes, but clearly YOU are the one who is wrong

The old "I know you are, but what am I?" defense, eh? Well, everyone knows there's no counter to that!!

[tvbound]

Originally Posted by roscoguy

1 in 13,000 is defeat? Not at all. By that 'logic', one could say that one CANNOT get a blood clot from the J&J vaccine. Period. PERIOD!!!!!, which is more than 70 times more likely, given the last data that I've heard. You prefer to use the percentage number, perhaps because it sounds so much smaller than the rate of incidence. The trouble is, 1/13000 or .008% are both greater than '...CANNOT ... Period. PERIOD!!!!!'. Don't ya' hate it when math & reality come together to smack down your victory dance?

Well, honestly, dock, I'm glad to know that you can take a good-natured ribbing, but we've worn this discussion out! Let's just agree that you were wrong & move on.

"Let's just agree that you were wrong & move on. "

That could be difficult, when someone is prone to deal in absolutes such as -

"BTW, ever notice that when someone is driving 50 in the far left lane of an interstate, or making a parking turn, or sleeping at a green light they are ALWAYS driving a Prius???"

[Two Bills]

Well!
That was interesting.
Off to de-flea the daughters cat.
Definitely a bigger than 5% chance I am going to get savaged.
Give me vaccinated Covid odds any day!

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by Two Bills

Well!
That was interesting.
Off to de-flea the daughters cat.
Definitely a bigger than 5% chance I am going to get savaged.
Give me vaccinated Covid odds any day!

Not really.

It was more like someone sitting in a concert hall waiting for an encore 3 hours after the lights went out and the janitor went home. The show is over, there's no more music, there was never going to be any more, but yet there they sit, completely baffled that their favorite song was a flop.

PS. Always a Prius was a hyperbole, but I feel safe in stating that it is a Prius more often than the percentage of Priuses on the road.

[Malsua]

This whole tennis match I found quite amusing.

People that repeat the "you can still give it if you're vaccinated" simply don't understand how immunity works on a cellular level. I would also go further as to say that even among the 5% there is _SOME_ immune response. It's a spectrum, not binary.

Using the .008 number, which strikes me as about right and adding in the chance of dying, you're starting to get out into the Six Sigma area. For people who don't understand what 6 deviations from the mean, means, this is that flat area of a bell curve, way, way out at the end.

The airline industry safety profile is at about six sigma, at least major carriers in western countries anyway. People have no problem getting on airplanes every day, but sure, some still do crash.

It reminds me of the scene from Dumb and Dumber.


LLOYD (CONT.)
I'm gonna ask you something flat out
and I want you to answer me honestly:
What do you think the chances are of
a girl like you and a guy like me
ending up together?

Mary is obviously thrown by this question.

MARY
Lloyd, that's difficult to say. I
mean we hardly --

LLOYD
--I asked you to be honest, Mary.

MARY
But Lloyd, I really can't --

LLOYD
--Come on, give it to me straight. I
drove a long way to see you, the
least you can do is level with me.
What are my chances?

MARY
Not good.

BEAT

LLOYD
You mean not good, like one out of a
hundred?

MARY
I'd say more like one out of a
million.

BEAT

LLOYD
(Duh)
So you're telling me there's a
chance?