I'm sitting here next to the fireplace in a wool shirt and long pants soaking up the ambiance and warmth of a roaring fire. That's right, we just heard a "freeze" warning on the radio. In our home in the Villages that would mean covering up the citrus trees and some plants. Up North it means, should I winterize the freshwater system on the boat and confirm our flight to Orlando. Oh well, next Sunday its back to paradise, friends and neighbors care of Continental Airlines.

Perhaps Kahuna or another poster with financial and/or economic expertise can explain to me how Obama's 33% increase in capital gains and dividend taxes is going to help the economy and markets at this point in time. I admit being strictly an amateur investor with some retirement investment cliffhangers stubbornly clinging to the edge of the abyss. It occurs to me that the implications of a hike in the capital gains and dividend tax rate could be a sinister (remember Snidely Whiplash) if not disastrous force for already strained markets.

In the past, lowering the capital gains taxes created government revenue because investors regularly cashed in profits at lower rates filling government coffers and feeding the economy with big ticket purchases. If Obama is going to raise capital gains by 33% as he has stated, I would think one of three negative scenarios or combination of the these disincentives, plays out. First, investors in the markets at all levels will consider pulling out mostly or entirely before Obama gets in to capitalize on the obvious advantage. Result....market down. Second, investors stop taking profits resulting in less revenue opportunity for taxation reducing government receivables. Result, less revenue and consumption. Third, why would people make investments into the markets knowing the usurious rate of taxation on capital gains and dividends? Result.... market down.

Can anyone tell me what the upside of raising the capital gains tax is? McCain, love him or hate him is on the record as saying he will reduce capital gains to 7.5%. Whether he will actually be able to do that is questionable. All opposing perspectives and opinions are welcome.

I thought Peter Ferrara's representation of the Obama tax plan was interesting.

Mr. Ferrara, who served in the White House Office of Policy Development under President Reagan, works for the American Civil Rights Union and the Institute for Policy Innovation explains:

-- Obama proposes to increase the top individual income tax rate by 13% and the second individual income tax rate by 10%.

-- Obama proposes to increase the capital gains tax rate by 33%.

-- Obama proposes to increase the tax rate on dividends by 33%.

-- Obama proposes to raise the top payroll tax rate by between 16%-32%.

-- Obama proposes a new payroll tax on employers to help pay for national health insurance.

-- Obama proposes to reinstate the death tax, which is being phased out under current law, with a new top marginal tax rate of 45%.

-- Obama proposes tax increases for corporations as well, such as the windfall profits tax on oil companies.

-- Obama’s protectionist trade policies even suggest higher tariff taxes.

The Tax Policy Center estimates that Obama’s tax plan would raise taxes by $627 billion over 10 years.

Herbert Hoover Obama

Well, Cabo35,

Even though you put out a call in your thread for posters with financial expertise, you got me anyway. Actually, you got me with the title of the thread. I have had great concerns about this one, even before the obscenity of this economic mess came home to roost. I have no financial expertise but somehow, bumpkin though I may be, I saw this one coming. I have an interest in this stuff.

Taxes may be the issue that causes always moderate Republican me to tear up that “Dear John” letter I wrote when he made the VP choice. I cannot decide if I am going to have to forgive him or if, in light of all the mess, all bets are off anyway, and they will all tax us into oblivion, in one way or another.

I honestly do not know what I will do with my vote. I did figure out though why I have been forced to beat myself up so much over this one. A couple of weeks ago, I saw something discussing what has happened with gerrymandering over the years. The idea being that gerrymandering gone wild is what has led us to what is turning into extremist politics. And all that gerrymandering has also made it almost impossible to throw the bums out. But I digress.

So anyway, I just wanted to add here what I recently read as a boil down on the candidates’ tax proposals. The source is a little 16-page publication that I subscribe to.


From Kiplinger’s Retirement Report, October 2008, p. 15:

The Candidates’ Tax Proposals

The lead says, “This comparison, drawn from official documents, lays out the presidential candidates’ major ideas.”

McCain: Income Tax
Maintain current tax rates of 10% to 35%.

McCain: Capital Gains/Dividends:
Keep maximum at 15%.

McCain: New Tax Cuts
Immediately double the dependency exemption to $7,000 for married couples with incomes less that $50,000; gradually increase it for higher earners.

McCain: Estate Tax
Raise exclusion to $5 million per person; cut rate to 15%.

McCain: Social Security
No change in taxable wage base.


Obama: Income Tax
Boost top tax rate to 39.6% on joint income more than $250,000

Obama: Capital Gains/Dividends
Raise maximum to 20%, but only for investors with incomes more than $250,000

Obama: New Tax Cuts
$1,000 rebate to offset high energy costs; up to $1,000 credit to offset Social Security taxes for low wage earners; eliminate income tax for seniors making less than $50,000; double college credit to $4,000.

Obama: Estate Tax
Set exclusion at 3.5 million per person; keep rate at 45%

Obama: Social Security
Impose added tax on earnings exceeding $250,000


Well, at least that's what was supposedly going on when the issue went to press anyway. Who knows how it has changed, only to change again.

I am still watching this closely. And still thinking. . .far too much.

Boomer

Cabo....

This is what I got from the Obama website...I cut and pasted the captial gains tax part but I also included the link to the website if you want to look at it. Where did you get the info about the 33% hike in capital gains taxes?

Eliminating Capital Gains Taxes for Entrepreneurs and Investors in Small Business. Barack Obama understands that small businesses are the engines of our economy, and he will eliminate all capital gains taxes on investments in small and start up firms.

Capital Gains: Families with incomes below $250,000 will continue to pay the capital gains rates that they pay today. For those in the top two income tax brackets – likewise adjusted to affect only families over $250,000 – Obama will create a new top capital gains rate of 20 percent. Obama’s 20%
rate is equal is the lowest rate that existed in the 1990s and the rate that President Bush proposed in 2001. It is almost a third lower than the rate that President Reagan signed into law in 1986.






http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/taxes...Plan_FINAL.pdf

Notwithstanding the various accusations of Obama's tax plan, he has said and the non-partisan experts who have reviewed the plans say the same thing...

Unless you have annual income of greater than $250,000 per year you won't pay any additional capitals gains taxes or taxes on dividends from tneir current levels. And unless your estate is $3.5 million or more, you won't see a change in estate taxes. (Oops! Sorry. You won't see them under any circumstances.)

In addition, if your taxable income is less than $250,000, you will see a tax cut.

Given that well-documented summary, my personal opinion is that neither of the candidates is going to be able to cut taxes because of our hugely unbalanced budget and the massive national debt. Those problems can't be fixed with spending cuts alone, particulalrly when the country faces the extraordinary costs of fixing Social Security and Medicare and re-building the armed forces after they come back from wherever they're fighting.

Cologal....research on the capital gains tax plan for both candidates is difficult to nail down with finality. They have gone through a metamorphosis throughout the campaign. Obama tends to want to raise them and McCain wants to hold or reduce them. The 20% rate for those over $250,000 is consistent with the 33% increase in Peter Ferrara's, a conservative policy analyst, explanation in my post. It's just a spin on numbers. http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=28875

Actually Obama was thinking much higher capital gains taxes for everyone before he realized it was not politically prudent .....and.... that is what concerns me if he wins. Which Obama is going to pull the switch on capital gains. Will he go for a higher rate backed by Pelosi and Reid, will he lower the bar from taxpayers earning over $250,000 to those that earn $150,000? $100,000? How will he decide "how to spread the wealth"? Who is he going to give the reapings to?

Obama's original plan, since modified, not withstanding Kahuna's articulate and accurate current assessment, called for Obama capital gains increases as high as 28% on everyone. There was no bright line cut off at $250,000. His flip flop was done ex post facto to soften his tax and spend, spread the wealth criticisms. I may be the only person on the planet that believes he will find a charming and articulate way to resurrect his original plan if elected, but, that's just me...and maybe Boomer.

This is a pretty big change for Obamanomics. Economic advisers Austan Goolsbee and Jason Furman, in today's Wall Street Journal, now say that Barack Obama's tax plan will do the following:

1) It will increase capital gains and dividend tax rates, to 20 percent, only for families making over $250,000. Before, Obama was hinting at rates as high as 28 percent for everyone.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-...-on-taxes.html

In August, the new Obama position was talking 28% capital gains. http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalra...clarifies.html

McCain has been holding the 15% rate for everyone and I heard him say that he would even consider dropping it to 7.5% to encourage investment and help the economy recover.

McCain also proposed cutting in half the tax rate on capital gains from stocks and other assets held for at least a year from 15 percent to 7.5 percent. "This vital measure will promote buying, raise asset values, help companies, and shore up the pension plans for workers and retirees," he said. http://www.boston.com/news/politics/...n_unveils.html

I am not sure he would be able to do it and don't know how much it would help the economy.

At this late stage, I suspect a lot of "swing" voters and unhappy moderate R's, who were not pleased with a McCain candidacy and some of his decisions, are now starting to come home because.....""better the devil you know than the angel you don't know ."

Got to close up the shore house and get ready to head home to the Villages before the frost dusts the pumpkin. Adios.

Look at the trillions of dollars in debt the Republicans have run up in the last 8 years. I think Americans have got to face the music at some point. The debt is just not going to go away on its own. I think eventually we are going to have to pay higher taxes no matter what each of the candidates are saying.

Originally Posted by rekop

Look at the trillions of dollars in debt the Republicans have run up in the last 8 years. I think Americans have got to face the music at some point. The debt is just not going to go away on its own. I think eventually we are going to have to pay higher taxes no matter what each of the candidates are saying.

"WE are going to have to pay higher taxes" Sen. Obama is in favor of taxing only one segment of society, those that earn above $250,000.

Some how Obama, and all Democrats, want to stay in power using "Class Warfare". Some how those that make over $250K are suppose to make life "fair" for those that make less. Warfare from those who make less, against those that make more.

LIFE isn't fair!!! Get over it!

"The society that puts Equality before Freedom will end up with neither. The Society that puts Freedom before Equality will end up with a greater measure of both" Quote Milton Friedman

We are ALL, in America, Free to Choose. Free to behave or misbehave as children. Free to study hard or not to finish school. Free to go to college, buy paying our way ourselves through work or by grants or buy loans. Free to work hard at our jobs or to continue school for advancement at work. Free to choose careers that offer high pay or just satisfy what we enjoy doing.

Just because some people seem to "do it right" in life and make their fortune, doesn't give the government the right to take their earnings away from them to make life "fair" for everyone.

I remember when Bill Clinton ran on cutting taxes for the middle class. A promise he made I believe. Very shortly after he was elected he imposed a rather hefty tax increase for everyone including the middle class. I know my paycheck went down a couple notches. Not only that he made it retroactive before he even took office. Nice touch there Bill.

Obama already said he's roll back the Bush tax cut straight out of the gate. If my math is correct that would be a tax increase on the middle class.

When he's done fleecing my paycheck then he'll come after the mean nasty rich people that make over 250k a year. That would be the guy who signs my paycheck. But that's ok, I'm sure he won't lay anyone off.

Don't forget one thing. The first six years of Bush in spite of the war on terror, the economy was doing pretty darn good. The last two years after power shifted in congress is when things started going south.

Who was it that was running Freddie and Fanny that started this mess? Who was it that said everything was just dandy and not to worry? Not the GOP.

If Obama gets elected I think the American people are in for quite a shock. Be careful what you wish for... you may get it.

Originally Posted by dklassen

I remember when Bill Clinton ran on cutting taxes for the middle class. A promise he made I believe. Very shortly after he was elected he imposed a rather hefty tax increase for everyone including the middle class. I know my paycheck went down a couple notches. Not only that he made it retroactive before he even took office. Nice touch there Bill.

Obama already said he's roll back the Bush tax cut straight out of the gate. If my math is correct that would be a tax increase on the middle class.

When he's done fleecing my paycheck then he'll come after the mean nasty rich people that make over 250k a year. That would be the guy who signs my paycheck. But that's ok, I'm sure he won't lay anyone off.

Don't forget one thing. The first six years of Bush in spite of the war on terror, the economy was doing pretty darn good. The last two years after power shifted in congress is when things started going south.

Who was it that was running Freddie and Fanny that started this mess? Who was it that said everything was just dandy and not to worry? Not the GOP.
If Obama gets elected I think the American people are in for quite a shock. Be careful what you wish for... you may get it.

This is an article i found on Freddie Mac

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27266607/

Being a lifelong democrat I hate to, but have to agree with dk. The first 6 years of republican control wasn't great but not that bad considering the problems that had to be dealt with during that time.

I don't agree with rekop's statement that the republicans are solely responsible for running up the national debt the last 8 years. The democratic party controlled congress the last two years and in this last two years the national debt has skyrocketed. If you claim to be a democrat and can't accept your party has allowed, for the last two years, the national debt to climb out of control, and for the last two years, the economy going to pot then shame on you.

I do agree with rekop that the national debt has to be dealt with now, not at a later date.

We the voters have to remember one thing, Campaign promises are just that, campaign promises that IMHO are made only to influence your vote, nothing more. Almost every elected official has made promises to get elected knowing they can't guarantee the promises will be enacted. The informed voter knows this and keeps it in prospective.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MGT_cSi7Rs

Notice Bill's comment at the end.

Here is an interesting graph on national debt.

i think it shows alot of what you hear in the news

http://zfacts.com/p/461.html

That's a great graph - really shows how things changed under the various presidents.

As has been documented many places, Bush did three things to skyrocket the debt from $5.7 trillion to $10 trillion:
1. He lowered taxes on the rich (by far the biggest item).
2. He invaded Iraq instead of winning in Afghanistan-Pakistan (another $600 B).
3. He loosened controls on Wall Street.
Interestingly, McCain backed all three policies. Obama didn't.

I have a simple question. Name one civilization in the history of the world that ever taxed itself into prosperity?

Here’s another. When has a poor person ever offered you a job? Great idea, let’s tax the job producers even more.

One of my favorite quotes from Walter Williams.

“My definition of social justice is you keep what you earn and I keep what I earn. Do you disagree? Then tell me how much of what I earn belongs to you and why?

I am certainly FAR from ever being rich and find myself about dead center in the “working middle class.” I figure when you add everything up, almost 50% what what I earn get’s taken from me in some form of tax. That’s just not right. Obama now wants to take even more.

It’s interesting because when the subject of tax cuts come up the Democrats always say the government simply can’t afford it right now. I don’t recall ever being asked by the Federal Government if I can afford it.

If Obama rolls back the Bush tax cut like he says he will, that alone will cost me $3000 a year.

btw, tax cuts don’t cause national debt, congress spending too much of our money does.

dklassen - It is refreshing to hear straight forward talk instead of excuses, finger pointing and defenses for the indefensible.