[CS1987]

I read an old letter to the editor dated April 1st the other day. It was from a retired doctor staying with friends in The Villages. She expressed alarm that social distancing didn't start until 7 days prior. She warned that because of that The Villages would have up to 30,000 cases of COVID 19 and between 1000 and 5000 deaths. The latest figures I've seen show 72 cases. I'm not sure about the number of deaths but I believe it is less than 12.

[billethkid]

Remember trust but verify.
An opinion plus doctor's title does not = expert......in this case just another erroneous, uninformed extrapolation.

[Arlington2]

I suspect the doctor is disappointed by the lack of deaths, but will never say that out loud.

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by CS1987

I read an old letter to the editor dated April 1st the other day. It was from a retired doctor staying with friends in The Villages. She expressed alarm that social distancing didn't start until 7 days prior. She warned that because of that The Villages would have up to 30,000 cases of COVID 19 and between 1000 and 5000 deaths. The latest figures I've seen show 72 cases. I'm not sure about the number of deaths but I believe it is less than 12.

Nice judgement call. I, for one, am glad that she is retired

[Arctic Fox]

but we needn't worry because, according to our hospital, "covid-19 is in the rear view mirror"

[Love2Swim]

Originally Posted by CS1987

I read an old letter to the editor dated April 1st the other day. It was from a retired doctor staying with friends in The Villages. She expressed alarm that social distancing didn't start until 7 days prior. She warned that because of that The Villages would have up to 30,000 cases of COVID 19 and between 1000 and 5000 deaths. The latest figures I've seen show 72 cases. I'm not sure about the number of deaths but I believe it is less than 12.

We don't even know if it was actually a "she" and if the person was actually a doctor. People misrepresent themselves online to make themselves and their opinions appear more credible.

[vintageogauge]

We can all look back and say "I told you so" or "this is how I would have done it". I'm looking to the future and thankful that TV has good numbers

[allsport]

And that would have been true if we had not shut down totally. That is what saved us and the carelessness of reopening will cause the numbers to spike.

[coffeebean]

Originally Posted by CS1987

I read an old letter to the editor dated April 1st the other day. It was from a retired doctor staying with friends in The Villages. She expressed alarm that social distancing didn't start until 7 days prior. She warned that because of that The Villages would have up to 30,000 cases of COVID 19 and between 1000 and 5000 deaths. The latest figures I've seen show 72 cases. I'm not sure about the number of deaths but I believe it is less than 12.

Thankful the good doctor was out in left field with her calculations.

[youngerday]

:Anyone can say anything. does not mean they know anything

[sipops]

That's why a doctors business is called a Practice.

[Joanne19335]

Originally Posted by Arctic Fox

but we needn't worry because, according to our hospital, "covid-19 is in the rear view mirror"

Wanna bet?

[IvorT]

I read a piece yesterday, reminding us that epidemiology and virus modelling, etc. Are not sciences in the same way that Physics is a science. They are more like economics, where there are many variables, any of which can drastically affect the end conclusion.

[Joanne19335]

Originally Posted by allsport

And that would have been true if we had not shut down totally. That is what saved us and the carelessness of reopening will cause the numbers to spike.

Finally, someone who understands reality. If we let our guard down and wrongly believe we are in the clear, we are in for what Dr. Bright said would be “the darkest winter in history.” I listen to the scientists—not our present leadership.

[Holpat39]

I'll keep in mind a month from now whether opening early will cause a spike in the Covid19 illness Another person who can predict the future.