[Velvet]

I don’t see why house prices would decrease in TV because of the virus. The same number of people still need to live somewhere. Most of the owners are retired and not employed in the first place. We did not lose any significant number of people to death. The place is one of the safest from crime and virus in the country. In a few months all the fun will be back our amenities can buy. A lot of people will still need to retire from all over. People are chomping at the bit to rent or own here. So why would the home prices in TV decrease?

[retiredguy123]

Originally Posted by Velvet

I don’t see why house prices would decrease in TV because of the virus. The same number of people still need to live somewhere. Most of the owners are retired and not employed in the first place. We did not lose any significant number of people to death. The place is one of the safest from crime and virus in the country. In a few months all the fun will be back our amenities can buy. A lot of people will still need to retire from all over. People are chomping at the bit to rent or own here. So why would the home prices in TV decrease?

I think they will decrease because they are artifically high as compared to 5 years ago. Why would a house that cost $400K in 2015 be worth $600-650K in 2020? The inflation rate is nowhere near that high. Also, potential buyers have lost money in their investments, and they will not be willing to spend as much on a house, especially when the future is so uncertain. So, I believe that sellers will need to accept a lower profit on their house. But, nobody really knows.

[Koapaka]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

I think they will decrease because they are artifically high as compared to 5 years ago. Why would a house that cost $400K in 2015 be worth $600-650K in 2020? The inflation rate is nowhere near that high. Also, potential buyers have lost money in their investments, and they will not be willing to spend as much on a house, especially when the future is so uncertain. So, I believe that sellers will need to accept a lower profit on their house. But, nobody really knows.

This PLUS the fact as some owners pass on, their families/estates that will inherit the place will probably want to liquidate.
Facts are MOST folks here will not be "looking to have to live somewhere else" when their home becomes vacant. For those of us living in age restricted communities, this is just a fact of life. We bought at the high end of the market, but for us it is irrelevant, as what is left to the kiddos is left to the kiddos, be it more or less. We bought what we wanted and will enjoy until it becomes an estate asset for our kids. I too would wait and catch the wave action, UNLESS you want to move down and enjoy now specifically, and then the option is yours to enjoy based on desire. None of us is promised tomorrow.

[npwalters]

I have noticed more houses on the market north of 466A than previously. I have NO data to back that observation up but it seems that way to me.

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

I’ve own 14 new homes , I would never put more then 20% down even if I planned on staying in a house , use the money for whatever else you choose, let the house go up in value even during a downtime your house will eventually turn a profit.

[tophcfa]

IF I was in your shoes, I would wait this out.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by Velvet

I don’t see why house prices would decrease in TV because of the virus. The same number of people still need to live somewhere. Most of the owners are retired and not employed in the first place. We did not lose any significant number of people to death. The place is one of the safest from crime and virus in the country. In a few months all the fun will be back our amenities can buy. A lot of people will still need to retire from all over. People are chomping at the bit to rent or own here. So why would the home prices in TV decrease?

There are always two sides to every economic valuation, supply and demand. You are only looking at the demand side of the equation. There is also the supply side

Current Demand issues:
The simplifying assumption of "Most of the owners are retired and not employed in the first place." may not quite hold up as thought. Most people relocating are coming from an existing job. Potential retirees laid off unexpectedly, and have to draw down their nest egg/potential down payment, which will reduce the potential demand on the size of the house. Current house prices are falling, albeit slowly at the moment, so people wanting a certain price on their existing home to move will have to wait longer. Current housing sales are slower, so if the potential TV retiree can't sell their house as quickly as anticipated, sales will slow in TV, causing the developer cash flow issues.

Current Supply / Developer issues:
The developer has had quite a few custom homes purchasers back out of the contractor, forfeiting their deposit. There are houses owned by the developer down $75K from the initial sale price. The developer is paying interest or forgoing future home development on the unsold, high end house just sitting there.

Finally, some people are conflating recent past housing sales trends with future sales trends. No doubt the housing sales / pricing / demand in the future from the virus will be affected by the economic recovery, or lack of one. We are effectively only two months into the lockdown created recession, and the economic effects are really yet to be understood. Most recent housing sales trend reports haven't been effected by the virus due to the purchase to loan cycle being one to two months and primarily centered around employment changes. Some banks are now pulling out of the housing loan markets due to the uncertainty of the fiscal support and the uncertainty of the recession.

So although the last housing cycle bust was 10 years ago, this event is completely outside the banking industry failures and self inflicted collapse, so the recovery will be completely different than 2008-2009, as will the depth of the collapse, if there is one.

Keep an open mind and adapt to the changing economics, which may be hard to do outside the industry.

sportsguy's opinion

[RoadToad]

If you are ready to occupy the new home, you should buy and move in.
You would "profit" by not wasting rent output of thousands (assuming you are renting as posh as you imply you were living) per month.

[retiredguy123]

I would just point out that the entire U.S. economy is collapsing. The Government has already spent $3 trillion to try to hold it together. Why wouldn't house prices in The Villages decline? Buying a house in this economy is risky.

[rlcooper70]

If you listen to the "experts" we are about to enter either a recession or a mini-depression with 20-25% unemployment and a drop in GDP of 20%. Does that sound like a time to buy? Or would you take a chance on waiting until the markets have a chance to digest what is said to be coming?

You are looking to buy a pre-owned house. The only question is whether someone will be selling. I'd take a chance and buy after the reality of this economic situation hits people.

[jrm4081@juno.com]

We live on Day Lily Run in the V. of Duval. We have quick access to both Brownwood and Lake Sumter. The house is a Gardenia, in great condition without too much done so you can do your own decorating. It is on the lower end because the people have purchased another smaller place. The address is 2652 Day Lily Run. The neighborhood is fantastic socially and all of the homes are $$$. The asking price is $324+.

[stadry]

if rusty's correct, there's still a drop coming in home $$,,, i think the same - rising tides lift all boats & the opposite's also true

[tjboxer79]

Normally there would be a price reduction during the summer, but after quarantining in this event, anyone close to retirement will do so and there will be a ton of people looking to get out of major cities...looking to buy in FLA. and likely here. I think the demand may outstrip supply, do prices go up...substantially. This guess will be enhanced if there is social unrest.

[davem4616]

Originally Posted by tvbound

Thanks for your thoughts.

I agree about the potential for a recession, which is the only reason we haven't already bought. In fact, instead of just paying cash for the house we are also thinking of taking out a partial mortgage in case the stock market tanks big time, which that extra money could then be invested. That would give us even more money to play with, so the kids will have a bigger inheritance when the time comes. Particularly since home mortgages are at record lows right now and it wouldn't take much return from stocks, to come out way ahead in the long run going in that direction.

This will definitely be our last home and as we heard many times from the full-time residents when we rented, I guess that will officially make us "frogs."

Wow, you are still willing to do without so that your adult kids will have an inheritance???

I invite you to move on to the next phase of life...live your life...your job raising the kids is over

We put all 5 through college on our dime, bought them cars, paid for the weddings, helped them get on their own feet....job done! Actually made a new house rule that kids are welcome for dinner anytime, but only grandchildren can sleep over...they laughed, but didn't push back

Our 5 know that IF there is anything left after we've enjoyed having the best possible time of our lives anything remaining is theirs...but they'd rather listen to the stories we tell them about our adventures


now, new vs. preowned in TV

Many of the 'pre-owned' homes are in great shape, however many will require substantial $$$ to renovate. Having contracted for renovations in FL and in the northeast I will say that there is no comparison...things are really different in FL (and not always in a good way so be very careful choosing a contractor in FL)

If you go new you're also going to spend money...we went new designer home and have spent 50K in upgrades with local contractors over the past 3 years

We had a small mortgage when we 1st bought here....once we no longer were itemizing our taxes we just paid it off...okay so cash reserves went down, however monthly expenses also went down

Nobody can predict the future with accuracy, however in the past home prices in TV seem to be insulated to an extend from what was going on everywhere else

Good luck...you've got some serious decisions to make...I hope it all works out for you

[Travelhunter]

Originally Posted by tvbound

Recognizing that no one can accurately predict the future, we're still interested in the opinion's of those that have been here a while to see if it would be better to purchase say by the end of June or wait until around November to see what this nasty virus does to the home-buying in The Villages.

After renting a couple of times now (up by Glenview and Sabel Chase area), we'll be looking primarily north of 466A (even though we know the bridges will go in soon) so was curious as to the price and demand in the older sections versus the new homes on the other side of the freeway.

All guesses appreciated.

Suggest you buy in the newer areas and purchase a new home
A new home lets you design it and pick out all the fixtures
The increase in prices in Fenney, both new and resale have increased in value beyond expectations and the same is true in the other areas being built
Everything is new including your neighbors