[BillyGrown]

Market? There is no market here. Everything is flatlined. I’m thinking we are at rock bottom until prices change. The train has left the station and you were either on it or left behind.

[jrref]

It makes me laugh when I look at a re-sale house in an area where the the homes are 10+ years old. The realtor shows you all the nice upgrades like closed-in lanai, plantation shutters, crown molding but the home still has the original appliances, HVAC system is going to need to be changed out soon and the original water heater is a ticking time bomb in the garage, paint job is original and will need to be done soon. Forget about the roof lol. Lots of mold that could have been removed for free if the homeowner called in a claim.

[Normal]

Originally Posted by Runway48

There appears to be a normalization of housing prices. The average cost of housing over the past 30 years has increase around 4.5% but this is an average and includes some wild upwards and downwards swings. We are just exiting a wild upward swing that occurred during the COVID years where sellers were seeking and getting annual increases of 20-40%………If you bought recently, you will probably have to wait a while until you can expect to sell it for more than you paid.

A well kept home that sold in 2018 (Pre COVID) for 300,000 dollars would be valued today (2025) with a 4.5 percent inflationary point annual increase at about 400,000 to 410,000 dollars. That’s using average numbers as if we didn’t have the pandemic interruption of supply.

Some homes today are priced well above and beyond those reasonable numbers. Granted, annual inflation is supposed to be much less than 4.5, but percentages are adjusted upward about 1.5 percent to include inferred upgrading costs. Doing this attenuation gives simplicity to generalize what home prices need to settle at.

[Byte1]

Neighbor's home sold recently for about $90K less than what the Villages agent told them originally to list it for. Took them months to sell it and many price reductions. They still realized a profit on it over what they originally purchased it. Folks are being chased out of Florida by greedy insurance companies and their increasing home insurance cost.

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by jrref

It makes me laugh when I look at a re-sale house in an area where the the homes are 10+ years old. The realtor shows you all the nice upgrades like closed-in lanai, plantation shutters, crown molding but the home still has the original appliances, HVAC system is going to need to be changed out soon and the original water heater is a ticking time bomb in the garage, paint job is original and will need to be done soon. Forget about the roof lol. Lots of mold that could have been removed for free if the homeowner called in a claim.

& the folks who live in thos 10+ year old homes laugh hysterically at the folks who bought into The Villages' marketing and believe Sawgrass is going to be the center of all that's good about The Villages.

For 100's of years, real estate values have been about 1 thing ... location, location, location.

There's only one thing about a home you can't fix, correct, modify or make up for .... land & location.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by Normal

I also use algorithms. The matrix may drop differently, but data is only so accurate. One person puts in a pool, or pavers, or skylights, or a fireplace wall. Another changes to all tile flooring and does closets. Maybe the outside landscape is totally redone, none of which is recorded in county clerk records.

There has to be a standard deviation formula for human interaction verses years living in a place; please let me know if you ever come up with that.

So the flaw in my algorithm was that most of the comparables were updated / modernized with new kitchens, or flooring, appliances, etc. My parents house was structurally near perfect for 60 years old, but never updated for 60 years, with 20 year old appliances, 50 year old linoleum flooring, 50% of the windows with broken seals and cloudy, etc. Out of 14 comparables, only 2 were not upgraded, which means that the comparables were really not very comparable. I had a variable for modernized/updated but there weren't enough data points to get an accurate reduction in FMV for lack of upgrades.

So the algorithm overstated the FMV by probably 50-80 k to account for the cost of modernization, which I understood but would have to create some randomized data to account for the differences, which i didn't attempt. . . so the buyer's agent had the output of the model, and used it to buy the house slightly below the estimate, with someone who was dying to get into the town. . and they even waived the inspection after their real estate agent went through the house herself before the sale.

It only takes one buyer to get it done for reasons which is known only to them. .

[villagernewbie]

After lurking here for a couple of years (while renting), we also started getting serious on buying about a year ago. We definitely watched prices coming down and decided to make the plunge this summer. While we feel like we paid a reasonable price for our pre-owned, the concern was that maybe if we waited prices would come down even more. While prices probably will come down more, we found a place that was perfect for us and went ahead and jumped on it. The moral for us being, since we're going to be frogs, jumping in with both feet shouldn't be predicated on paying the absolute lowest price.

[Jayhawk]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

There's only one thing about a home you can't fix, correct, modify or make up for .... land & location.

That's 2 things.

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

& the folks who live in thos 10+ year old homes laugh hysterically at the folks who bought into The Villages' marketing and believe Sawgrass is going to be the center of all that's good about The Villages.

For 100's of years, real estate values have been about 1 thing ... location, location, location.

There's only one thing about a home you can't fix, correct, modify or make up for .... land & location.

Originally Posted by Jayhawk

That's 2 things.

1 1/2 things.

If I had said "2 things", this being ToTV, someone would have said "land & location of land" is the same thing

[raananh]

Is it possible that buyers back-out because, if they wait, houses will be cheaper?

This is what happens in a real estate crash/correction.

P/S: in the good old days, not in TV, my friend put a large down payment on a new house being built, and the builder backed-out ... because they could sell the house for more now.

[Joecooool418]

Originally Posted by BillyGrown

Market? There is no market here. Everything is flatlined. I’m thinking we are at rock bottom until prices change. The train has left the station and you were either on it or left behind.

The Villages has a loooooooooooooooooong way to go before catching up with the rest of the downturn in Florida.

I've had my house for sale in South Florida for 11 months now. I've dropped my price to 60% of the original listing price, and still no takers.

I'm in the new section here in the villages and have few neighbors because I'm surrounded by unsold spec homes.

[BillyGrown]

Originally Posted by Joecooool418

The Villages has a loooooooooooooooooong way to go before catching up with the rest of the downturn in Florida.

I've had my house for sale in South Florida for 11 months now. I've dropped my price to 60% of the original listing price, and still no takers.

I'm in the new section here in the villages and have few neighbors because I'm surrounded by unsold spec homes.

I know parts of Florida haven’t been hit as hard in home prices as some areas like West Palm Beach or Cape Coral. Friends in Coconut Grove have it so bad they have pulled their house off the market. It’s all related though. It seems many are attempting to move back up north with their families for their last final years. Things just aren’t great for anyone trying to move away from Florida right now.

[Boomer]

Where have all the buyers gone?

There is so much uncertainty in the economy now that not many people are making moves. That's true across the country. Businesses are facing uncertainty. The job market is showing signs that are not good.

In TV, just as some of the early boomers, and those who are older, might be beginning to think about heading back home, a lot of younger boomers and early retiring GenX are deciding to stay put in their elsewhere homes, for now.

Also, those who still want to move to TV need to find buyers for their present houses. That is not so easy anymore, anywhere.

This slow real estate market is not really about the interest rate. This one is about uncertainty.

Boomer

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Just wait until the first cases of childhood communicable diseases show up. .

Come to Disney for the entertainment
Leave with a few childhood diseases. .

No grandchildren will visit? find someplace else to live. .

Third World country (hyperbole for the literal - ati!)

[Caymus]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Just wait until the first cases of childhood communicable diseases show up. .

Come to Disney for the entertainment
Leave with a few childhood diseases. .

No grandchildren will visit? find someplace else to live. .

Third World country (hyperbole for the literal - ati!)

So, the lines will be shorter?