[poromo]

There are many well off people living in TV and I've heard it said that TV is recession proof. The declining stock market and layoffs are taking a tremendous toll on the nation's economy. My questions are at what point, if at all, will TV be affected? Is it possible stores and restaurants could close as they have in other parts of the country? I hate to say it but could the town squares become ghost towns?

[ConeyIsBabe]

Looking forward to the responses ........ However, it seems logical to me that the continued influx of well-to-do retirees moving into TV, with large incomes, will support all the stores and restaurants

In my middle/low income small-town community there are vacant stores already evident !

[Muncle]

Where the individual controls where his money invested, I would think the vast majority of Villagers would be relatively light in the market, especially individual stocks. Now is the time in our lives when we should not be gambling. Most of our investments should be in relatively safe securities.

This, of course, does not count the paper losses so many of us have in our older homes. The place we paid $50,000 for in the '70s that was selling for $1.2 Mil in 2004 is now worth $775,000. That's not a loss of $425,000. It's still a profit of $725,000. (unless you already took the money by refinancing)

[Boomer]

I watch TV, from a distance, so far. And I know there has been some concern among property owners that house prices are dropping in response to the real estate market everywhere and now additionally because there may be a lot of sitting tight going on with potential buyers.

Someone who lives there can add details or corrections to what I am about to say here, but I think I have a general idea about this.

I think when the market in TV was hotter than hot, the developer built in language in contracts to purchase that would discourage speculators. I am not sure exactly how it worked, but I think something was done to prevent flippers from coming in and taking over.

While you might say that the developer did this only to protect his own interest in selling new properties, it also protected the interests of those who live there and plan to stay.

Speculators have killed many developments. I know a young couple who did everything right when they bought a Ken and Barbie house in Arizona. They correctly mortgaged. They did not buy over the amount they could afford. They had a down payment. All that stuff.

But speculators and people with stupid mortgages were in there with them. Now they are surrounded by foreclosures. Properties are neglected. Swimming pools make mosquitoes. The county sometimes brings in mosquito-eating fish. Water in pools evaporates pretty fast in that climate. -- You know the rest of that one. And there are even multiple families living in some houses now.

And there they are, watching their investment evaporate like the water in those smelly swimming pools. And they did nothing wrong.

Like I said, I think TV was fairly protected from flippers. Flippers are often leveraged to the hilt. -- most of them leveraged to the hilt is my guess. And many have now collapsed.

So even though you may see your property not as highly valued as it was even a year ago, I also think TV will not find itself full of foreclosures due to speculation.

And as far as the developer dropping prices on those new homes goes, that is nimble market response. The developer is probably quite able to cut his profit margin. By doing so, more houses sold will bring more people to keep those stores and restaurants and golf courses going. So as aggravating as I know it must feel sometimes to see those price drops on the new homes, it really is better for the big picture. TV is not one of those places where a developer comes in, throws up a few houses, and runs. It's a much bigger picture there.

So anyway, as we all know, the market will bear what the market will bear. And I know it is no fun to watch your house prices drop some. But I have to think that TV owners may be somewhat buffered, in part because flipping has been discouraged.

I hope somebody will let me know if I don't know what I am talking about here. But when I was there a year ago, I remember something about that contract language that would make flipping hard to do -- and I remember thinking that it was a good thing.

Does anybody have the details on this?

Boomer

[graciegirl]

I think you are close to the money as usual Boomer.

And CIB, the people who are financially well off have taken the biggest hit in this terrible mess.

[The Great Fumar]

The economy will turn around in the second quarter of "09" Some of the numbers are in place to see the shortest recession in years...
remember , you heard it from old fumar....... If it doesn't , you can complain to my next of kin............


glass half full fumar

[villages07]

Boomer,

I believe you are referring to sales contract language that stated if you sold your new house within the first year, any profit above the original sales price would go to the developer. That language in itself might discourage some speculators, but, it is essentially a moot point since values have not gone up in the last couple of years. I think the bigger reason for so few foreclosures in TV was the developer's requirement for 20% down payment... that really scares off speculators and encourages responsible home ownership.

As to the original question, I think you will see further repercussions from the national economic woes here in TV....maybe not too deep, but, will be noticeable. Rental contracts cancelled; restaurants not quite as busy, folks who've been here awhile on non-indexed pensions struggling to afford ever increasing costs (amenity fee, food costs, energy costs). Folks who are managing their own retirement fund seeing their overall value erode and worrying how long their money will last. Folks still maintaining 2 houses and finding it increasingly expensive to do so and getting rid of whichever one will sell first. In my humble, and nonexpert, opinion, economic troubles will be noticeable here but not crippling. Stores and restaurants will continue to come and go. That new big strip center across from Home Depot may struggle to attract tenants and customers...it may be an example of too much commercial building. Time will tell.

[JohnN]

I think demographics of the boomers will shelter TV from the brunt of the recession, this is a very unique attractive place to live. However, it's apparent that America is going to learn/relearn how to be thrifty, it's really not a bad lesson to live below your means.

[The Great Fumar]

BOOMER
You must keep a house one year from the date of purchase . If you sell before the anniversary of the date of purchase , The Villages has the right to buy it back at the purchase price and anything you have done to the house such as LANAI'S , BIRDCAGE'S , SHRUBS, ETC, ETC. are all lost...........
This was done a couple of years ago because of all the speculators buying houses and flipping them ( mostly courtyard villa's) .....
They were buying bare bones and then decorating them inside and out and making a tidy profit...........
They were buying two and three at a time and had a nice business going until the village Realtors started complaining that all the houses were being gobbled up and so THE VILLAGES stepped in and made some changes to stop it ....And (don't quote me on this ) a new rule was introduced that you can only buy one house a year.....I was told this buy a realtor..but it does make sense............

I catch myself rambling on and on like this............

fumar

[Villages Kahuna]

I had the major window sub-contractor doing some service work here at our house today and I asked him whether sales had slowed with the bad economic news. He replied, "No way. We're blowing and going." I asked whether he meant just on the new places adjacent to Lake Sumter Landing. he said, "No, all over. We're building 6-7 days a week there as well is out in Hemingway and points west along CR 466A."

Is this place immune from the economic conditions thruout the rest of the country? It sure appears that way. But if prospective buyers can't sell their houses up north and their investment portfolios have taken a major league hit...then how in the world are they buying all these places down here?

I can't quite figure that out.

P.S. I sure hope you're right on your projection for the economy, Fumar. But I'd be willing to bet that you're off on your timing by at least a year, maybe longer.

[villages07]

I'm with you Kahuna....it seems like TV is still building houses faster than they are selling. They don't release sales info and the one unofficial source, the 'welcome to newcomers' monthly list in Rec News, isn't being printed any more. So, it's hard to tell. I'd like to think that the Developer and his marketing team have a pulse on supply and demand so that they don't ever get stuck with an unmanageable oversupply.

[downeaster]

I looked at the Sales List on the Sumter County Appraiser's web site. This includes all of Sumter County but is still an indicator of sales here. It also includes resales.
In Jan 2006 and we were booming. Jan 2007 showed a definite slowdown then in Jan 2008 it looks like it bottomed out and 2008 sales have been pretty steady and hardly shabby.
IMHO, prices have moderated here enough so the person who must sell to buy here can justify taking a lower price on their current home. Furthermore, because of the moderation in prices, some people are biting the bullet and buying here before selling their current homes.

[MelZ]

I am confident that with the new administration coming in January the economy will turn up very soon after.

Since the executive branch and legislative branch will be of the same party. A politican's first duty is to get himself reelected, since there is no else ot blame they had better fix the problem.

I actually thing the recession end and the economy will turn up by Q2 2009. I expect and prices and the markets will stabilize. Those who are selling house up north need to be patient.

Most losses are paper losses until locked in by a personal action.

[tbsoccer]

Six months ago, I was about 85 percent certain that we'd sell our house next spring, rent for a few months in TV until we decided on which village we wanted to live in an what style of home we wanted to buy and then make the move in the fall. We probably would purchase a previously owned home with more mature landscaping and the upgrades that we wanted. However that changed drastically two months ago when the market started its death spiral. Between the erosion in my 401(k) and the latest PBGC rate of 4.75 percent, my retirement nest egg has dropped an equivalent of 2.5 years of salary. Like I told my boss, the only thing making money in my portfolio is me. Hugh lay-offs are announced daily and the pending demise of the American auto industry could put even more pressure on unemployment through out the country. Although housing costs in Pittsburgh have only dropped a slightly, it still looks like our move is going to be delayed by a year or so.

[F16 1UB]

I too thought we'd sell our home. 7 months now & new agent. Price dropped 10%. Ready to go 20%. New home sitting vacant in TV. Neighbor behind and beside us both have homes for sale in TV. I don't see the housing market turning around until mid/late 2010. I sure as hell hope I'm wrong.