[RRGuyNJ]

Originally Posted by SoCalGal

I asked my smartest friend, Grok3. Here's what it said.

Bird flu, particularly the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strain H5N1, has indeed disrupted egg supplies in the U.S., leading to shortages and rising prices. However, its impact on butchered chicken meat availability and prices is less pronounced, and there’s a straightforward explanation for this rooted in how the poultry industry operates.

The key distinction lies in the two separate segments of the poultry industry: egg-laying hens (layers) and chickens raised for meat (broilers). These are different birds, bred and managed for distinct purposes. Layers are older hens optimized to produce eggs over a longer lifespan, typically starting at 18-20 weeks and remaining productive for a year or more. Broilers, on the other hand, are younger chickens raised specifically for meat, reaching slaughter weight in just 6-8 weeks. When bird flu strikes, it often hits layer flocks hardest because their longer lifecycles and dense housing in egg production facilities make them more vulnerable to outbreaks. Since 2022, over 157 million birds have been affected in the U.S., with a significant portion being egg-laying hens—over 20 million were culled in the last quarter of 2024 alone. This culling drastically reduces egg supply, driving up prices.

But what happens to the meat from these culled laying hens? Generally, they don’t enter the consumer meat market in large quantities. Laying hens are not bred for meat production; their bodies are leaner and less muscular than broilers, making them less desirable for butchering. When flocks test positive for bird flu, U.S. regulations require rapid culling—often within 24 hours—to contain the virus. The carcasses are typically disposed of through methods like composting, incineration, or burial, not processed for human consumption. Even if some were butchered, the volume would be negligible compared to the broiler industry, which raises about 9.4 billion chickens annually for meat. Moreover, the USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service ensures that sick or infected birds don’t enter the food supply, and cooking poultry to 165°F kills the virus anyway. Therefore, there's no significant influx of “infected egg hen meat” affecting the chicken meat market.

Why isn’t there a shortage of chicken meat then? Broiler production has been far less impacted by bird flu. USDA data shows that since February 2022, less than 0.0005% of U.S. broiler production has been affected. Broilers’ shorter growth cycle means farmers can replace culled flocks quickly—within weeks—compared to the months it takes to raise new layers and restore egg production. Plus, the industry maintains substantial reserves of frozen chicken in warehouses nationwide, buffering against supply shocks. This resilience explains why chicken meat shortages haven’t materialized despite the bird flu crisis.

As for prices, chicken meat costs have remained relatively stable compared to eggs. Egg prices soared from $2.17 per dozen in January 2022 to over $4 by late 2024—a 135%+ increase—due to the direct loss of layers. Chicken meat prices, however, haven’t seen a comparable spike. Broiler supply disruptions have been minimal, and factors like feed costs, labor, and inflation have a bigger influence on meat prices than bird flu does. Studies from Poultry Science analyzing 2005-2023 data show that while poultry prices (including chicken meat) rise during outbreaks, the effect is less severe and shorter-lived for meat than for eggs. The frozen stockpile and rapid broiler replacement cycle keep supply steady, preventing the scarcity-driven price surge seen with eggs.

To summarize, the bird flu isn’t causing a chicken meat shortage or significant price hikes because broilers are a separate, less-affected population with a faster recovery time and a robust supply chain. The culled laying hens don’t meaningfully contribute to the meat market, and strict safety measures ensure infected birds stay out of your grocery store. You’re not eating “infected egg hen meat”—you’re eating broilers, and there’s still plenty of them to go around.

Prices of chicken breast in NC has almost doubled since this whole thing started. Currently $3.69 per lb vs $1.99 avg last year. Chicken breast from Sams Club is $2.79. We're not that desperate, yet. The last batch we got from there was terrible. I have a feeling they are steroid rich birds.

[Lottoguy]

As of today 3/4/25 egg prices will be the least of your worries.

[Topspinmo]

Long life question which came first the chicken or egg? Less laying chickens results in less eggs. I wills be surprised if bird flu not man made failure and another plague for mankind. Seems like biological/chemical warfare does more harm when there no wars?

[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by Lottoguy

As of today 3/4/25 egg prices will be the least of your worries.

Why? Have to go to doctor? Or is meteor about to hit?

[TheWatcher]

Originally Posted by Susan1717

That is a good question! Regardless if a hen is raised for eggs or its meat, how can there be a shortage and disease of one and not the other?!

The Broiler chickens have shorter life-span to market than the Layer chickens. So less exposure time in completely different facilities.

The Broilers are housed in what is essentually a P3 Lab like facility (they call it 'Biosecurity'). Workers 'scrub' in (shower and change clothes)and wear containment outerwear. May be required to do the same leaving. HEPA filtration is used. A poultry farm near us up north has their access roads marked and blocked with cones to prevent unauthorized access. Genetics plays a part.

Originally Posted by Susan1717

And why are ducks and other birds not affected?

But, they are. And they are spreading it, too. The problem here is how the disease(s) spreads and transmission to other nonavian species. For example, so far there are isolated cases reported from cows (positive virus testing of milk). The milk before pasturization has infected human dairy farm workers by direct contact as conjunctivitis. The virus does not affect other species the same. But the virus has not acquired the ability for widespread infectivity in other species. Read that as higher morbidity and mortality.

[Bill14564]

Originally Posted by RRGuyNJ

Prices of chicken breast in NC has almost doubled since this whole thing started. Currently $3.69 per lb vs $1.99 avg last year. Chicken breast from Sams Club is $2.79. We're not that desperate, yet. The last batch we got from there was terrible. I have a feeling they are steroid rich birds.

Highly questionable number for last year when the average price in the US was around $4/lb.

UNLESS, NC is a major producer of chickens and production was affected by the hurricane last year. That might have eliminated an artificially-low price.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Susan1717

That is a good question! Regardless if a hen is raised for eggs or its meat, how can there be a shortage and disease of one and not the other?! And why are ducks and other birds not affected?

Wild birds especially aquatic birds like storks, geese, and duck ARE infected with bird flu. So, maybe people should not feed them.

[fdpaq0580]

Originally Posted by Topspinmo

Long life question which came first the chicken or egg? Less laying chickens results in less eggs. I wills be surprised if bird flu not man made failure and another plague for mankind. Seems like biological/chemical warfare does more harm when there no wars?

Egg came first! Without a doubt!

[fdpaq0580]

Originally Posted by Bill14564

I heard it was TRILLIONS!!

He was tired of hearing all the clucking. Turned out it was just tinnitus. 😒

[fdpaq0580]

Originally Posted by Pballer

The government plans to address the problem by increasing imports of eggs from foreign countries. Our largest foreign source of eggs is Canada. I'm sure that Canada is eager to bend over backwards to accommodate us.

Well, they certainly don't want to bend over foreword!!

[fdpaq0580]

Originally Posted by Topspinmo

Why? Have to go to doctor? Or is meteor about to hit?

All of the above and more. 😞

[davem4616]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Trying to talk my wife into buying some baby chicks and raise them to become egg layers.

Should be able to clean up as long as my wife agrees to do the cleaning.

Stu, I'd love to hear the audio of the conversation you had with her my friend ... lol

[LianneMigiano]

Originally Posted by asianthree

Not a problem, one does not eat the hen that lays the egg, only the chicken that crosses the road, in about 8 weeks.

The only time a hen became Sunday dinner was they were so mean, you killed them to save yourself.

Why is it "not a problem" when the bird flu can affect your "chicken that crosses the road, in about 8 weeks" too? The bird flu isn't selectively singling out "egg-laying" chickens - so why hasn't the price of chicken meat increased just as eggs have? I wonder if this soaring egg price is either caused by some kind of media hype or by greedy farmers. I've never considered our farmers as a greedy bunch - so.....

[Bill14564]

Originally Posted by LianneMigiano

Why is it "not a problem" when the bird flu can affect your "chicken that crosses the road, in about 8 weeks" too? The bird flu isn't selectively singling out "egg-laying" chickens - so why hasn't the price of chicken meat increased just as eggs have? I wonder if this soaring egg price is either caused by some kind of media hype or by greedy farmers. I've never considered our farmers as a greedy bunch - so.....

Because, as mentioned in several previous posts, broilers (the "chicken that crosses the road") is harvested at something like 45 days (less than 8 weeks).

But yes, it's all media hype. The price in the store is not really $6+, it's really about $2.79, but the media hype has you believing the eggs are more expensive. The media hype is even so good that the electronic cash registers believe the prices is much higher than it really is!

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by davem4616

Stu, I'd love to hear the audio of the conversation you had with her my friend ... lol

Good to hear from you. We ought to get together.