[Laker14]

you will never know the exact perfect time to buy until it has passed.

[asianthree]

Originally Posted by justjim

“Good time to buy”? Since 2006 I have “watched” the real estate market in The Villages. Many many houses are over priced IMHO. Even the Developer is discounting some new homes south of 44. Inventory of new homes is high in part because of the lack of commercial (supermarket, restaurants, etc.) south of 44 and high interest rates. Those that have a mortgage with a low rate but would like to move up into a “pricey” new or resale home won’t pull the trigger until interest rates move lower. No, I would wait to buy until the second or third quarter of 2024 unless I had cash and had to have a home immediately.

Things are greatly changing in the villages as younger residents move in. Their main concern is not commercial and retail. They are looking for a better lifestyle something that will improve their health or keep them healthy. Retail definitely going by the wayside hoping for better fitness venues than stores.
Why go to grocery when you can order anything you need, delivered when you want. My parents at 90 don’t even waste time in a grocery.

As far as retail new gens rarely go to brick and mortar. I’m not sure if our grandkids shop in a brick and mortar, LuLu Lemon just arrives at your door step.

[Babubhat]

Meaningless statistic. So many south of 44 flippers asking absurd prices

[Robbb]

Originally Posted by billethkid

The point being?

Ths point is last year this time there were app 300 homes for sale, today over 1,200. The end is coming.

[Robbb]

Originally Posted by Normal

Inventory is trending up across the state. Perhaps the lull or peak buying time will be July or August? Analyst’s predictions are all over the place after that. For sure, now isn’t the time to buy. Prices are dropping in almost every market, not just here.

The problem with buying now is the preowned are way overpriced and new construction is basically in the northern suburb of Miami. I drove from Brownwood to Lake Denham, it felt like a half hour.

[Bogie Shooter]

Originally Posted by Robbb

Ths point is last year this time there were app 300 homes for sale, today over 1,200. The end is coming.

Here is your post from Jan 2023, are you sorry you finally bought in TV? Some would call all this fearmongering,

"Default The end is near?
Of the rental market that is. I'm staying in Richmond on a small block, in that block 4 of the 12 homes are rentals, 2 of which are rented. Today on one of the rental sites there are 49 homes for rent in March. With new rentals coming on the market every day, Ya gotta wonder if home rentals in the Villages are the soon to be crash that everyone is fearing."

[Normal]

Originally Posted by Robbb

Ths point is last year this time there were app 300 homes for sale, today over 1,200. The end is coming.

Most of us saw this initiate fruition the 2nd or 3rd week of September as the absolutes in hard data were pouring in. Expect some equilibrium of availability soon as far as stats with a growing reserve of sellers waiting for market opportunities to change before attempting liquidation.

There will be a strong possibility of FSBO (For Sale By Owner) postings to offset some losses.

If I was just retiring, there would be zero rush to buy or sell. Chill like the true hunter and sit in one place. If you want to sell, then sell, but I wouldn’t repurchase. It would be better to rent because rental prices will and are decreasing in almost every market.

Hopefully prime season is mid to late summer.

[blueash]

....

[callalily]

Originally Posted by blueash

I wonder what qualifies as a VLS new home? All new homes sold in TV are not available to VLS agents only to Villages sales agents. As I am not familiar with how zillow does its inventory.... I must be misunderstanding something

If there are 443 total, then how are there 492 preowned and 445 new?

Zillow shows pre-owned houses listed on MLS (multiple listing service). Realtors have access to those, but not the VLS. VLS new and pre-owned are only accessible to Villages sales agents. There's 3 types of listings - MLS, VLS new and VLS pre-owned.

[Pballer]

Originally Posted by Bogie Shooter

Here is your post from Jan 2023, are you sorry you finally bought in TV? Some would call all this fearmongering,

"Default The end is near?
Of the rental market that is. I'm staying in Richmond on a small block, in that block 4 of the 12 homes are rentals, 2 of which are rented. Today on one of the rental sites there are 49 homes for rent in March. With new rentals coming on the market every day, Ya gotta wonder if home rentals in the Villages are the soon to be crash that everyone is fearing."

And exactly why should we fear some sanity returning to the housing market?

[Craig Vernon]

Originally Posted by billethkid

The point being?

My point is exactly what I wrote there are more listings than I have written down every Friday morning for a year.

[Craig Vernon]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

either trying to time the market, works for pricing but stuck with the current inventory available at that time.

or

wants to buy but can't pull the trigger,

(friends of ours did the same and took them 5 years to buy their house)

Not trying to time the market I cannot buy until I retire in or around December of this year. Which unless something major happens is definitely our plan and then moving to TV full time...

[Craig Vernon]

Originally Posted by Caymus

Do you know what it was in late 2019 (pre-covid)?

I did not write down the numbers in 2019 but I was watching back then..

[Craig Vernon]

Originally Posted by Laker14

You should be able to find something that suits you among all of those choices.

Like you, I kept a close eye on the TV real estate market for many (like 13) years before pulling the trigger. I was working up in NY State and the time was not right for me until a few years ago, post-retirement.

An interesting thing I found was that while the number of homes listed seems like a crazy high number, we scratched off about 70% right away because we had a specific idea of where we wanted to be, which for us was south of LSL, north of 466A, and not too far from the Odell Circle-Bailey Trail loop. Then we removed all of the villas, because we didn't want a villa. I wanted a golf cart garage (which I didn't get but I did get an expanded garage which covers my needs), then I wanted a floor plan with the guest suite separated from my bedroom, and it had to be over a certain square footage, and under a certain number of dollars....and after all my wants and don't wants, the inventory was not that big, so....

If you are really really interested in TV, now may be the time to make a jump, and find a place that adequately meets your criteria.

My wife and I have been doing the same visiting for about 10 years now. We will be down in February and again in May. We are really looking toward a December 2024 retirement and move to TV... Thanks for the insight and sensible comment.

[Craig Vernon]

Originally Posted by asianthree

Since this is your dedicated hobby, over the last few years, your stats have reach the highest level, in January 2024. So what is the monthly percentage from last quarter of 2023 to January 2024.

Did the percentage grow each month in that percentage, making the statistics higher for January? Or did January increase greatly from the last quarter months.

Wouldn’t the new on the market be consistent as builds are released, was there a plateau on new vs preowned.

Are the new unsold homes in a certain areas, that seemingly are making new buyer take pause.

When Richmond East is released, bet there will be10 plus names on the list, village will be sold out in an hour of release. So new builds could just be a stall due to location.

In 2021 & 2022 there was so little new and preowned on the market stats weren’t really available. Our home like many others never hit online statistics since many were sold within days.

With rates still high, our financial guy thinks it will be end of 2024 before housing comes back to normal. But that’s his prediction, and he did tell us that home sales would greatly slow starting in November of 2023. Which it seems they have.

So in addition to your regular stats separate out new build by village, for comparison to see what is sitting or selling. That would give you a better idea on market for new homes.

So, I will give it a shot.
Oct 1 2023 zillow 363/VLS preowned 396/VLS New 298
Nov 3 2023 384 421 304
Dec 1 2023 422 427 346
Jan 12 2024 443 492 445

I am just watching the market because I plan on buying probably around the end of 2024. I was just posting an observation.