[CoachKandSportsguy]

Colleague in MA just sold his home to move. Current process: a batch of houses come on the market Mon and Tue, open house on the weekend. Bids due by Sunday night, winner and losers announced Monday morning, rinse and repeat.

winning bids have no contingencies and no inspection requirements and are over asking. . .

Current nation wide state of affairs for all those not following the actual outside the bubble housing market. . .

[Babubhat]

Lumber prices now down 66% since May. Let’s see if builders pass along that savings. It equals 13% of average house construction costs per today’s article

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by Babubhat

Lumber prices now down 66% since May. Let’s see if builders pass along that savings. It equals 13% of average house construction costs per today’s article

"Average" are typically not block constructed homes...

And yes, I know that TV also has "stick built" homes...

[MrFlorida]

Housing prices are high, but you can still live cheap in other areas. But....don't forget, your neighbors will also be cheap, if you get my drift....

[Woodbear]

Originally Posted by Babubhat

Lumber prices now down 66% since May. Let’s see if builders pass along that savings. It equals 13% of average house construction costs per today’s article

I will know when we have our design appointment the first week of August. We were rough quoted a build cost near $405K. Lumber spot price in May was ~$1600. Today lumber spot price was $521(down another 13% in one day).

Knowing we are building a block home lets assume the lumber costs are 6.5% of the house construction. Our lumber cost in May would have been $26,300. In todays market those costs would be reduced to $8,600. That would make for a very welcomed savings of $17,700.

[Babubhat]

I hope they pass the savings along. Many builders are going to keep this as extra profit

[Woodbear]

Originally Posted by Babubhat

I hope they pass the savings along. Many builders are going to keep this as extra profit

If they gave it to us, I would be much inclined to spend it elsewhere on the build. If the savings are kept, we will be disappointed for sure. The way limber is crashing its spot price may be at 1/4 of what we saw in May.

[Koapaka]

Reminds me of the early 80's when the price of sugar soared and they passed the cost along to consumer.....sugar prices went back down...the cost of everything containing sugar never was adjusted again. Remember when the same candy bar that use to cost a nickel or dime shot up....to 25 cents each???? Same candy bar now cost over a buck now..I would be happy to see the cost adjust accordingly as the price of lumbar comes back down, but if history repeats itself (and it does more often than not) you only see it adjusted when it is in can "justify" the requirement for price INCREASE.

[Normal]

Originally Posted by Woodbear

If they gave it to us, I would be much inclined to spend it elsewhere on the build. If the savings are kept, we will be disappointed for sure. The way limber is crashing its spot price may be at 1/4 of what we saw in May.

I get it, but in the villages almost all the newer homes are cement block construction any how. Only the inside walls and trusses are wood. That said, construction materials made for other things have been hit by the inflation bug.

In the long run, I don’t really see prices going down much or at all. Maybe they will stabilize? You see, it isn’t some kind of financial bubble as much as it is supply and demand. When the supply does catch back up, how hard do you feel demand will effect the market? Prices won’t be dropping quickly or hard. In fact, we could be on the cusp of inflation, then all bubble theories are garbage.

[Timothyimitchell]

Originally Posted by Normal

I get it, but in the villages almost all the newer homes are cement block construction any how. Only the inside walls and trusses are wood. That said, construction materials made for other things have been hit by the inflation bug.

In the long run, I don’t really see prices going down much or at all. Maybe they will stabilize? You see, it isn’t some kind of financial bubble as much as it is supply and demand. When the supply does catch back up, how hard do you feel demand will effect the market? Prices won’t be dropping quickly or hard. In fact, we could be on the cusp of inflation, then all bubble theories are garbage.

As long as mortgage rates are low, homes will remain as high as the demand. The real question is how much longer the FED can manipulate the marketS!! Yes, plural.

[Normal]

Originally Posted by Timothyimitchell

As long as mortgage rates are low, homes will remain as high as the demand. The real question is how much longer the FED can manipulate the marketS!! Yes, plural.

For sure, I question that too! We saw the primary pressures of inflation on used cars. They account for a little over 1/3 of our reported numbers for June. The Fed is right to wait, but when will they see the “Whites in their eyes” and pull the trigger? Will it be a rifle, shotgun, cannon or nuke?

If fuel prices continue an upward trend, that will drive the economy and inflation to a breaking point. We can then all open up our Billy Beer can stash and reminisce about which was worse, the 70s or now.

[vintageogauge]

Originally Posted by Timothyimitchell

As long as mortgage rates are low, homes will remain as high as the demand. The real question is how much longer the FED can manipulate the marketS!! Yes, plural.

Over 50% of homes sold in TV are cash deals, a rise in mortgage rates won't have the same effect here as in other areas.

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by vintageogauge

Over 50% of homes sold in TV are cash deals, a rise in mortgage rates won't have the same effect here as in other areas.

It will if the sale of their previous home is needed to make that "cash deal"...

[Tim C.]

We just went under contract for our house in Tampa. Went up on realtor.com Saturday night at 8 pm. Sunday we had 11 showings and 3 offers. By the end of Tuesday, it was up to about 30 showings and more offers. We signed a contract yesterday morning for approximately $40K above our asking price and it was incentive-laden -- worth at least another $5k to us. The market is still hot. now we have to be out in a month and we will be in TV full-time

[vintageogauge]

Originally Posted by JMintzer

It will if the sale of their previous home is needed to make that "cash deal"...

Most of those that I know sold their homes after buying their new home in TV, I'm sure some will need to sell ahead of time but not all of them. Four years ago homes up north were selling easily, not at the prices they bring today but there was no problem selling them in a reasonable amount of time. Also TV have been selling 7 new homes and 7 re-sales on average for the last 3 years and only recently went up a little higher. This place is unique and there are still 10,000 boomers reaching retirement age every day and they only need a handful and I'm sure there are more then a handful that have the cash.