[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

Some housing markets have been crazier than others but most have gone up substantially. Several factors which vary from market to market have driven price increases. To name a few - historically low interest rates (preposterously low IMHO), Baby Boomer retirees relocating to warmer climes, bigger and nicer homes desired by those who work at home made possible by technology and due to the pandemic, people migrating from high cost areas to lower costs areas and for better school systems for their children, recent shortages and cost increases in lumber and other building materials, increased wages due to worker shortages in construction and other industries, during this last year much higher fuel and food prices, high inflation, an increasing number of shortages of critical items and so on.

I own a house in a small town in Northern Idaho in which my son and his family reside. I bought it in late 2017 for $390K. At that time our real state agent apologized for the price as it would have sold for $290K in 2016. Zillow now values the house at $868K and my son believes I could get more, much more for it. An LLC in which I hold a share just sold a Maryland commercial property for twice what I thought it might bring at best. Indeed it sold for 40% over what the highly experienced commercial real estate brokers specializing in that type of property believed it would go for.

You just convinced me we are in a bubble for sure.

[manaboutown]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

You just convinced me we are in a bubble for sure.

And we listed the Maryland property a bit above what the brokers recommended. We had 12 solid offers all over our asking price within a week or two. The brokers recommended we get a second round of bids. We received six, all well above asking price. It was a clean, easy deal, too.

My barber of 30 years back in Southern California with whom I remain in touch told me his grandson just got a house under contract as a buyer in Carlsbad, CA. 18 offers in two days. Four were cash buyers including him. His was not the highest offer but near the highest. He had no contingencies or inspection conditions so the sellers accepted his offer. It is just ridiculous now.

[VApeople]

Originally Posted by Rainger99

In March, 2015, a Cedar in Dunedin was $282,000; a Gardenia in Dunedin was $352,000; and an Ivy in Dunedin was $415,000.

Those prices seem high to me.

When we were choosing a model to have built in May 2016, a basic Iris was $258K and a basic Laurel Oak was $289K. These prices do not include the price of the lot.

[MartinSE]

Well, more interesting would be normalized for inflation numbers. I was going to say based on square footage, but that won't work either since the houses built 10 years ago aren't the same as those built today in many way. A single example is the poured concrete walls.

But, anyway, inflation sucks and every time it comes around, people focus on it.

[Garywt]

Without comparing the same 3 models each timeframe this really does not say anything.

[Rainger99]

Originally Posted by VApeople

Those prices seem high to me.

When we were choosing a model to have built in May 2016, a basic Iris was $258K and a basic Laurel Oak was $289K. These prices do not include the price of the lot.

What were lots going for in May, 2016? No view lots backing onto a house and view lots on a golf course, pond, or nature preserve. I don’t think construction costs have gone up as fast as lot prices.

[rustyp]

Originally Posted by rustyp

Is the bubble about to burst ? See advice at 4:48.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sbgyBhI4wo

Originally Posted by manaboutown

Some housing markets have been crazier than others but most have gone up substantially. Several factors which vary from market to market have driven price increases. To name a few - historically low interest rates (preposterously low IMHO), Baby Boomer retirees relocating to warmer climes, bigger and nicer homes desired by those who work at home made possible by technology and due to the pandemic, people migrating from high cost areas to lower costs areas and for better school systems for their children, recent shortages and cost increases in lumber and other building materials, increased wages due to worker shortages in construction and other industries, during this last year much higher fuel and food prices, high inflation, an increasing number of shortages of critical items and so on.

I own a house in a small town in Northern Idaho in which my son and his family reside. I bought it in late 2017 for $390K. At that time our real state agent apologized for the price as it would have sold for $290K in 2016. Zillow now values the house at $868K and my son believes I could get more, much more for it. An LLC in which I hold a share just sold a Maryland commercial property for twice what I thought it might bring at best. Indeed it sold for 40% over what the highly experienced commercial real estate brokers specializing in that type of property believed it would go for.

Did you look at the video ? It says we are at the beginning of the end. Mortgage rates are at 5%. Houses in TV are no longer being offered over asking. Author's advice if you are going to sell do it now.

[VApeople]

Originally Posted by Rainger99

What were lots going for in May, 2016?

The basic lots with no view and kissing lanai were $5K.

Our quarter acre lot on a cul-de-sac was $60K.

The lots that backed up to a golf course or a water view were about $90K thru $140K.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by VApeople

The basic lots with no view and kissing lanai were $5K.

Our quarter acre lot on a cul-de-sac was $60K.

The lots that backed up to a golf course or a water view were about $90K thru $140K.

Home prices increase at fastest rate in 34 years in December, but rising mortgage rates remain a threat - MarketWatch

[Two Bills]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

home prices increase at fastest rate in 34 years in december, but rising mortgage rates remain a threat - marketwatch

[justjim]

A good friend of mine favorite phrase was “everything is relative”. Truer words have never been spoken especially when it comes to real estate. In the last five years, the average house in TV has doubled in price. Some maybe a bit more if you own on the golf course. There are no golf course lots currently for sale. However if you sell and purchase another new home it’s all “relative” as my friend has said. You get more but you pay more for another. Fore!

[Chi-Town]

You don't have to go back very far to see the pricing boom on homes south of 44.

[rustyp]

Originally Posted by Chi-Town

You don't have to go back very far to see the pricing boom on homes south of 44.

How far back does one have to go to see the pricing boom north of 44 ?

[Boomer]

When the last bubble popped, TV seemed to slow down a little but I don’t think it was ever hit like the rest of the country.

When the LSL area took off, people were lining up, frantic to buy. Many of those LSL buyers were already Villagers but just wanted to move to the brand new area or wanted a different size than their first TV house. Another group of those LSL area buyers were from the beginning of the baby boom, newly retired or ready to be.

As LSL went on and reached 466A, it was then 2007–2008 and TV adapted to the slowing of the market up north. But TV never stopped in its tracks — like everywhere else did.

The rest of the country is now in the throes of extremely low inventory, but TV always has houses for sale, not only due to the continued building but also due to the demographic that eventually will move back home or to a care community or to the next world.

Although this market is not being caused by dangerous lending practices (drive-by appraisals and stated assets loans and a frenzy in the secondary mortgage market — reeling those mortgages in the front door and selling them out the back door at high speed) this market has one element in common with the last one — a ridiculously low mortgage rate. Now, that is changing — by the day. . .

And those rate increases will have to slow the market elsewhere. TV buyers are often cash buyers because they have harvested a ton of equity out of houses they had owned forever, so TV buyers often choose not to mortgage. But the TV market is affected by the markets retirees leave behind. Real estate cash might not be flowing as freely as it has been.

Boomer

PS: Not a one of us knows where this weird real estate market is headed, but some of us (including me) think it is fun to talk about.

[rustyp]

[QUOTE=Boomer;2082807]When the last bubble popped, TV seemed to slow down a little but I don’t think it was ever hit like the rest of the country.

I will challenge this a bit - however there is an exception to every rule and maybe this is the exception.

Here is the selling history of a courtyard villa off of Delmar I rented when we first came to TV:
1992 - $81K
1999 - $108K
2007 - $249K
2009 - $150K
2015 - $179K
2022 - $249K

FYI - $81K invested at 7% in 1992 would have yielded $616K today