[Henryk]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

The 12Z cycle of the NWS Spectral code takes Irma up the east coast of FL with landfall near the GA/SC border. This is consistent with the 06Z cycle. The simulation puts Irma directly east of The Villages (on the east coast) around 5AM Monday Morning. This is still out at 6 days into the future so there can be substantial uncertainties. Everything considered, this would be a good outcome for The Villages (windy with several inches of rain), less so for others. The 5PM Forecast discussion by the NHC should be an interesting read. The ECMWF code runs a bit later than the NWS code.

For those who are wondering what a "model" is, here is brief description. Essentially a "model" is a computer code that solves the 3-dimensional equations for fluid motion that describe the atmosphere. These are basically conservation equations for momentum, pressure, temperature, and several moisture variables. These are time dependent partial differential equations so they can be numerically integrated from an initial state to simulate the future state of momentum, pressure, temperature, and moisture. For the NWS code, the initial state is created every 6 hours using various data sources around the globe. Forecasters will then look at the solutions and create the "worded" forecast that you hear/read on various media sources.

Thank you for your definition and expertise in following the models. Although I couldn't repeat it, I think I understood it..., sort of, kind of..., uh, not really. But really, thanks very much.

[patfla06]

///

[patfla06]

Originally Posted by Bjeanj

Well, this helps!

Funniest post ever!

[justjim]

Originally Posted by affald

Clean the bathtub with Clorox and if Irma comes this way fill it with water. Good to flush and drink if need be.

Good thought. Most have other containers too around the house you can fill up with good ol' tap water. Should I mention you might want to put any lawn ornaments you have in the garage?

[Putt4Dough]

Irma hits Barbuda island

Huracan Irma entrando a Isla Barbuda. - YouTube

[coffeebean]

Originally Posted by patfla06

This is exactly the scenario we would worry about.

Being inland you obviously don't get storm surge like the coasts. But if you get rain stalled will be a big problem. Yes going over land helps but Florida is flat and doesn't slow it as much.

Wind over 100 mph is a frightening thought.
All those loose items in your yards should be taken in.
(A reason I don't like all those rocks people put in their
Landscaping).

Praying it does not hit us or anyone else.

We lived in South Florida during Andrew. I distinctly remember Brian Norcross telling us anything along the ground would not become a missile. He told us to turn our large potted plants on their sides etc. Tornadoes, however, can make anything become a missile no matter where it is. I'm surely hoping the landscape rocks will stay put. There is an awful lot of them in TV.

[jsw14]

Originally Posted by justjim

Don't panic! If Irma comes up through the center of Florida, it will be much weaker by the time it gets to The Villages. Start planning for a "hurricane party"! My friends just went shopping and no bottled water left. Some people panic yesterday and carried most of it out of the stores. Selfish and greed... No problem---just fill up containers with tap water. Cheaper and better for the environment anyway.

I'll be there at the Party Jim, my tap water is the same as your's...We can share the Water tooo.......

[DeanFL]

I only have one question:

Who has the key to close up the TV DOME when it's time?

[Carl in Tampa]

Originally Posted by justjim

With all due respect, leaving a window open or even cracked is one of those hurricane myths. Google this to find out what it says about leaving a window open.

We have been through 3 hurricanes while living in Central Florida and The Villages is one of the safest places to live. That said, there could be some damage. Power failure, some roof shingles, tree damage, and flooding low areas such as tunnels etc. Hurricanes do sometimes spawn tornadoes and that could be more dangerous than the hurricane itself.

Bottom line, nobody knows for sure where this is going to make landfall---too early to know. By the end of this week, we will have a better idea about the path of Irma.

Opening windows inside of a house is for tornadoes, not hurricanes. An approaching tornado brings a low pressure which causes houses to explode outward from internal air pressure.

Simply have food and water, and be prepared to live without electricity for a few days.

[DARFAP]

Yellow font is virtually unreadable.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[jsw14]

Originally Posted by DARFAP

Yellow font is virtually unreadable.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

... Just make it BOLD.......

[tuccillo]

Don't bother, it is a myth and scientifically doesn't hold up. The pressure difference isn't enough.

Originally Posted by Carl in Tampa

Opening windows inside of a house is for tornadoes, not hurricanes. An approaching tornado brings a low pressure which causes houses to explode outward from internal air pressure.

Simply have food and water, and be prepared to live without electricity for a few days.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

Don't bother, it is a myth and scientifically doesn't hold up. The pressure difference isn't enough.

Tuccillo are you here in The Villages now? What are your plans so we can do the same thing.

[tuccillo]

Yes, I am here. I have a tee time on Sunday morning - I am planning on shooting even par or perhaps a few strokes over ;-)

Regarding Irma, I will wait a few more days to see how the numerical guidance firms up. There is still a lot of "slop" in the solutions. I don't believe, at this time, that there will be any reason to leave but you never know. I suggest sitting tight and watching the weather forecasts. We are still 6 days out and nothing is certain, albeit I don't like the trends.

Originally Posted by graciegirl

Tucillo are you here in The Villages now? What are your plans so we can do the same thing.

[njbchbum]

Originally Posted by Carl in Tampa

Folks, for Florida, the center of the state is the safe place.

Here is how you prepare for a hurricane.

1. Have an adequate supply of drinking water. Depending upon how many people are in your household, go out and buy a few cases of bottled water. Enough for several days. Just in case.

2. Have an adequate supply of canned food for the entire family for several days.

3. Plan on losing household electricity. Have some candles, and perhaps a Coleman camp lantern for illumination. Have a couple of flashlights and fresh batteries.

Have a battery operated radio for the likelihood that you will lose cable or satellite TV due to losing electricity.

You can go for days without electricity. Pretend you are out camping in the woods, except you have a nice house to stay in instead of a tent.

The odds are you will still be able to cook on your gas stoves.

(I have camp stoves and a propane gas grill. Cooking is no problem. Mainly I heat up soups and other canned goods.)

4. Fill up the gas tanks on your car and your golf cart. After a few days you may need to go get water or groceries.

You can handle this.

Great recommendations - all of which were used during Superstorm Sandy!

Also used our outdoor solar path lights for nightime lighting - they charge during the day and are effective after dark.

We also made sure the propane tank for the gas grill was filled - often used as food defrosted in the freezer - made for some "fun" neighborhood smorgasbords!

Also had a small supply of kitchenware that could be used on the grill - learned to make what I call Cowboy Coffee:

Fill coffee filter with maximum/desired amount of grounds;
Secure with twist tie;
Toss into pot, bring appropriate amount of water to boil;
Boil to desired strength!

It's hard enough to cope with inconvenience - but doing it without morning coffee - no way!

Re cellphones and laptops - we have car chargers for each so that they can be used thru power failures.