[vintageogauge]

Originally Posted by CountryFox

If you can wait until April/May. Prices in high season always seem to go up, then right size over the summer.

We thought that when we bought in May of 2017 but found that the year before there were more homes sold here in both May and July than any other month of the year. We were very fortunate to get in on the ground floor south of 44 when the real bargains were available.

[Viperguy]

Check some listings in the Bay Area of CA. Now they are unreal. Market forces

[rustyp]

Originally Posted by Catalina36

Oh yes and don’t forget your not just buying a home. Your buying a Life Style.

And as a bonus double taxes will be included with your home's new assessment.

[OhioBuckeye]

That’s right, what’s the point. Buy somewhere where you can afford. They sound like they want to live in a well to do neighborhood on a very minimal wage! So don’t move to TV.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Asset inflation, everywhere, which is much different than consumables living CPI inflation, is everywhere. In the chart below, you will see that the liquidity from the FED has pushed assets to redonkulous levels, housing prices are not CPI, but owners equivalent rent is, so there will be increases in CPI but that will level off as well and fall back to near normal records. .

The interest rate increases will change this asset valuation levels, so for those looking, best to just wait, as the prices will return to about the 2019 ending levels, there about. . just have your cash ready and please have patience. . . check on your FOMO, (Fear Of Missing Out) you haven't in any way, just wait.

Chart is price to sales ratio of SP500 historical ratio. . . truest measure of valuation as revenue is most scrutinized for fraud.

[rustyp]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Asset inflation, everywhere, which is much different than consumables living CPI inflation, is everywhere. In the chart below, you will see that the liquidity from the FED has pushed assets to redonkulous levels, housing prices are not CPI, but owners equivalent rent is, so there will be increases in CPI but that will level off as well and fall back to near normal records. .

The interest rate increases will change this asset valuation levels, so for those looking, best to just wait, as the prices will return to about the 2019 ending levels, there about. . just have your cash ready and please have patience. . . check on your FOMO, (Fear Of Missing Out) you haven't in any way, just wait.

Chart is price to sales ratio of SP500 historical ratio. . . truest measure of valuation as revenue is most scrutinized for fraud.

This makes sense to me. What I see is rapid asset inflation not wage inflation. Hopefully a housing crash does come. If not we will have a whole generation of people that won't be able to afford to buy a house. That will cause unrest. If a new home is in your near future then:
- Don't sell high and buy high now
- Don't sit and do nothing (your present house value will also go down)
- Sell now and rent (anywhere) until the crash comes then buy

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by rustyp

This makes sense to me. If it does to you and a new home is in your near future then:
- Don't sell high and buy high now
- Don't sit and do nothing (your present house value will also go down)
- Sell now and rent (anywhere) until the crash comes then buy

Correct!


You can't buy a house low without selling your current house high first!

The typical response is to hold onto high prices but investing being counter intuitive, you have to sell high prices in order to afford low prices later. . . of course there is effort to do so, some inconvenience, and the people in the villages with the high asking prices are properly following the rule above.

finance guy

[MX rider]

Originally Posted by rustyp

This makes sense to me. What I see is rapid asset inflation not wage inflation. Hopefully a housing crash does come. If not we will have a whole generation of people that won't be able to afford to buy a house. That will cause unrest. If a new home is in your near future then:
- Don't sell high and buy high now
- Don't sit and do nothing (your present house value will also go down)
- Sell now and rent (anywhere) until the crash comes then buy

I don't see a "crash" coming anytime soon. The current real estate market is nothing like 2008. Will it level off at some point or even back down a bit? Yes. But right now demand far out paces supply, and not just in Florida.
And even though interest rates will go up some, I don't see going from 3% to even as high as 4.5% being much of a deterrent. That's still historically low.

Waitng out the market has it's own downside. Who knows when it will cool off? What if it's 5 years? That's a crapshoot in itself. In the meantime we'd be putting off our dream, and that's something we don't want to do.

Even though my wife and I are very fit and healthy, who knows what tomorrow brings. Everyday is a gift for us. So we went a ahead bought a place. You can argue whether it's a good move or not until the cows come home. Everyone's life situation is different, and nobody truly knows what will happen tomorrow.

We have many more years behind us than ahead of us. So we live accordingly. Worrying about whether our home in TV will appreciate or depriciate is something we could care less about at this point. For us it's about enjoying the years we have left. Our kids can deal with our home when we're gone. I'm sure they'll come out just fine.

All that said, it's just my opinion. lol

[Babubhat]

Unless you have something special it doesn’t matter. Most houses will go up and down lockstep with the others. The price of your last house is irrelevant if you stay to your expiration

[BlueStarAirlines]

Originally Posted by rustyp

If a new home is in your near future then:
- Don't sell high and buy high now
- Don't sit and do nothing (your present house value will also go down)
- Sell now and rent (anywhere) until the crash comes then buy

This is exactly what we did. We sold at the peak when there was a frenzy. House had some big ticket repairs/replacements coming in the next year or so and buyers waived all inspections. Crazy! We took the money and got a two year lease on a rental in TV. We're looking to buy our home, but are in no rush.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by BlueStarAirlines

This is exactly what we did. We sold at the peak when there was a frenzy. House had some big ticket repairs/replacements coming in the next year or so and buyers waived all inspections. Crazy! We took the money and got a two year lease on a rental in TV. We're looking to buy our home, but are in no rush.

that's the way to do it. . we thought about it, but want to experience TV full time first. . getting closer

[DAVES]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Asset inflation, everywhere, which is much different than consumables living CPI inflation, is everywhere. In the chart below, you will see that the liquidity from the FED has pushed assets to redonkulous levels, housing prices are not CPI, but owners equivalent rent is, so there will be increases in CPI but that will level off as well and fall back to near normal records. .

The interest rate increases will change this asset valuation levels, so for those looking, best to just wait, as the prices will return to about the 2019 ending levels, there about. . just have your cash ready and please have patience. . . check on your FOMO, (Fear Of Missing Out) you haven't in any way, just wait.

Chart is price to sales ratio of SP500 historical ratio. . . truest measure of valuation as revenue is most scrutinized for fraud.

Interesting BUT.......... When to buy and when to sell THAT IS THE QUESTION.
The S&P year to date has fallen nine percent. The Russell 2000 has fallen 14% year to date. The CPI consumer price index has hit 8%. Assuming you are AVERAGE and lost 9% in the market. We ALL are paying 8% more for goods some of which we can decide not to buy at this price others like food and gasoline will get painful for those who cannot afford to pay more, NET loss not sure how the math works is it 9 plus 14 average 9+14=23 divided by 2= 11.5%. No it is not as the same stocks are in both indexes. So using the S&P as average normal and CPI as average effect on all it is like anything else FUZZY MATH 9+8%=9.72% lost. In REAL MONEY almost 10% has DISAPPEARD.

[rustyp]

Originally Posted by DAVES

Interesting BUT.......... When to buy and when to sell THAT IS THE QUESTION.
The S&P year to date has fallen nine percent. The Russell 2000 has fallen 14% year to date. The CPI consumer price index has hit 8%. Assuming you are AVERAGE and lost 9% in the market. We ALL are paying 8% more for goods some of which we can decide not to buy at this price others like food and gasoline will get painful for those who cannot afford to pay more, NET loss not sure how the math works is it 9 plus 14 average 9+14=23 divided by 2= 11.5%. No it is not as the same stocks are in both indexes. So using the S&P as average normal and CPI as average effect on all it is like anything else FUZZY MATH 9+8%=9.72% lost. In REAL MONEY almost 10% has DISAPPEARD.

However only 55%of Americans are invested in the stock market. Just a hunch retirees are invested much higher in bonds than equities thus the "AVERAGE" of 9% bis not accurate across the entire population. The fuzzy math needs to get fuzzier.

[DAVES]

Originally Posted by rustyp

This makes sense to me. What I see is rapid asset inflation not wage inflation. Hopefully a housing crash does come. If not we will have a whole generation of people that won't be able to afford to buy a house. That will cause unrest. If a new home is in your near future then:
- Don't sell high and buy high now
- Don't sit and do nothing (your present house value will also go down)
- Sell now and rent (anywhere) until the crash comes then buy

HUH? Sell now and buy later? Then, rather than betting on the stock market and real estate, you are betting on the fiat dollar which I read somewhere or other has lost 12% this past year. Oh and add to that you will likely pay TAX on what you sell.

Everyone has their own financial reality. For those who own a home and want to sell it and buy in the villages, the home they own is also INFLATED in value so it is a wash or partial wash.

As far as people not being able to buy homes. Under CAPITALISM, if people can't afford to pay the price the price will either drop or the goods will not be produced.

Turn up the violin music. When first married I owed 13,000 in college loans. In today's dollars that is roughly 7x so 91,000. We lived in a dive and I worked 6 and 7 days a week. I PAID MY LOAN. We SAVED money to buy a home. A truly strange concept for many. We need to live and be happy with what is not with what we think should be.
Should be is a moving target and thus will never be.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by DAVES

Interesting BUT.......... When to buy and when to sell THAT IS THE QUESTION.
The S&P year to date has fallen nine percent. The Russell 2000 has fallen 14% year to date. The CPI consumer price index has hit 8%. Assuming you are AVERAGE and lost 9% in the market. We ALL are paying 8% more for goods some of which we can decide not to buy at this price others like food and gasoline will get painful for those who cannot afford to pay more, NET loss not sure how the math works is it 9 plus 14 average 9+14=23 divided by 2= 11.5%. No it is not as the same stocks are in both indexes. So using the S&P as average normal and CPI as average effect on all it is like anything else FUZZY MATH 9+8%=9.72% lost. In REAL MONEY almost 10% has DISAPPEARD.

CPI isn't asset inflation. . .
apples and oranges

nothing to do with this point to be perfectly blunt