[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by ElDiabloJoe

If you are in a house or the market for more than a decade or two, you should be little concerned by this.

Even if you bought a house at the very very highest peak of the 2006/2007 market before the epic 2007/2008/2009 crash, that price would be an amazing bargain in today's market.

In So Cal, I know a guy who bought weeks before the crash for a then-whopping $750,000!!! Sure, it was worth only $600,000 on paper for a few years. That same house now goes for $1,750,000, a full million dollars more than he bought it for at the then-peak. This example is not unusual.

My current Tennessee house was $650,000 brand new in 2007. I bought it in 2019 for $705,000 - not much of a gain. Currently valued at 1,250,000. Viewed in today's market, even its peak-pre-crash price of $650,000 would be an incredibly bargain today.

If you are in the game for the long-haul, if you are looking to live in the house rent free while it gains equity or hand it down to your heirs, the market price when you buy matters little as long as you are getting it for a competitive price at the time and market of your purchase.

Real Estate, like the stock market, will bounce up and down but over time it has always gained value. Would you buy IBM or Apple or anything else today at the price it was in 1980? I bet cash money you would. I would buy any house I've ever owned for what it may have gone for in 1990, whether it was a bargain or the highest in the neighborhood. Any of those prices would be significantly cheaper than today's costs.

What does Warren Buffet say? "Buy, hold, and don't watch too closely."

I think it applies to real estate as well.

Anecdotal information and not consistent with the facts.

According to NAR, the average existing homes in the USA have appreciated an average of 3.7%, from 1968 - 2009. Great deal, huh? The general rate of Inflation was 4.5%. There goes your "profit".

According to the Case - Shiller Index, the average existing home appreciated 3.4% from 1987 - 2009. Great deal, huh? General rate of Inflation was 2.9%. Oooops, there goes your profit again!

There are surely regional differences, but guaranteed real estate appreciation is a myth.

Historical real estate appreciation rate in the United States (There are a multitude of additional sources, but the basic facts don't change).

[MrChip72]

Originally Posted by margaretmattson

JI live in the North and the numbers are about the same. I happen to be in my sixties as are 50% or more in my village.

About 25% of my neighborhood still works because they're not retirement age yet. There's even a couple in the 40's across the street from us. I've never heard of any neighborhoods like that north of 466A.

Anyone can see the difference when in the Northern parts of the Villages.

[MrChip72]

Originally Posted by kansasr

Not even close! If you look at the registered voters in Sumter County (which is a pretty good representation of full time residents and the only easy way I know to quantify the age of a resident) the largest percentage of under 60 is indeed south of 44, but only 21.4%. This does not include west of the turnpike, where the percentage is 15.9%. Next you have South of 466A and South of 466 at 6.8% under 60 and finally north of 466 at 8.4%.

Where you do see difference is in the percentage of 70 and over.....South of 44 it's only 34.5%, west of the turnpike it's 42.3%, south of 466A it's 68.5%, south of 466 its 76.2% and north of 466 it's 73.2% that are 70 and over.

My guestimated numbers were off but the point is still proven by your data. Anyone that claims that the Northern parts are as young as the southern parts would have to be visually impaired.

[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by MrChip72

My guestimated numbers were off but the point is still proven by your data. Anyone that claims that the Northern parts are as young as the southern parts would have to be visually impaired.

Maybe I should buy a new pair of eyeglasses or check the voter cards of my neighborhood. But, I do not have to. I ACTUALLY LIVE in the north and am not watching from afar. What do some of you not comprehend? Preowned homes come available EVERY DAY because the owners have passed, are widowed, extremely ill, or have gone to assisted living. Realtors do not advertise this because they believe it will scare off potential buyers. Today there are approx 400 preowned homes for sale on MLS. What do you think happened to the owners?
They are jealous of the south? And now, want to move there?

Get a grip on reality. We are an elderly population. We are ALL headed to the same place. None are going to escape it! In a few years, residents in the older southern neighborhoods will become a certain age. Maybe then, you will understand. When this happens, who do you believe will buy their homes? Think hard! (If you need help, answer is: younger retirees) Our demographics change EVERY DAY.

BTW, living next to a few older residents has an advantage. They are a wealth of reliable information. You can easily avoid the mob mentality and mistakes of the younger generations.

Example: you are in need of medical attention and are not certain where to go. Who would you rather be living beside? Someone who has experienced the same issue with great results. Or, a younger neighbor who just moved here and likes the smile of their new doctor?

[frayedends]

Originally Posted by margaretmattson

Get a grip on reality. We are an elderly population. We are ALL headed to the same place.

Not all of us.

[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by frayedends

Not all of us.

Can I please have some of that miracle drug you are taking? I want to live forever like you.

[frayedends]

Originally Posted by margaretmattson

Can I please have some of that miracle drug you are taking? I want to live forever like you.

I was making a joke implying some go to heaven and some go to the other place. Just some morning humor.

[Dusty_Star]

Originally Posted by frayedends

I was making a joke implying some go to heaven and some go to the other place. Just some morning humor.

I got it the first time, & thought it was funny. Sadly all jokes die (no comment on where they go) when explained.

[ElDiabloJoe]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

Anecdotal information and not consistent with the facts.

According to NAR, the average existing homes in the USA have appreciated an average of 3.7%, from 1968 - 2009. Great deal, huh? The general rate of Inflation was 4.5%. There goes your "profit".

According to the Case - Shiller Index, the average existing home appreciated 3.4% from 1987 - 2009. Great deal, huh? General rate of Inflation was 2.9%. Oooops, there goes your profit again!

There are surely regional differences, but guaranteed real estate appreciation is a myth.

Historical real estate appreciation rate in the United States (There are a multitude of additional sources, but the basic facts don't change).

By the way, the source you linked has not been updated in 15 years (2009), so big grain of salt there. Anyhow...

Unless this is taking into account houses in the sparse regions of Wyoming and South Dakota or maybe including permanent-burn areas like downtown Detroit, I find these numbers crazy talk.

Your sources are telling you that in over 50 years, housing has only appreciated under 4%? So the average 1970 home price of $25,000 has only gone up to approximately $1000? so now the 2019 average home price was $26,000?

Even if that 4% (rounding up) is compounded annually, the 2019 average home price, according to your sources, is $178,000? That might be a more believable number, and your post and your data should indicate the results were from interest compound annually. However you would have to live in a mighty rural or economically depressed area (or in a single-wide, or a 50+ year old rambler, or up a 'Haller' in Appalachia where I actually do have a house) to find a $178,000 house. Averaged out across ALL housing - including tiny homes and cardboard boxes - maybe we reach your sources's numbers.

Or, maybe I should buy a lottery ticket because I have always made money - and lots of it (25-150%) on every home I've bought, owned, lived in, and sold.

Your sources do not, in my humble opinion, reflect the experience of neither anyone I'm familiar with nor anyone frequenting this forum, nor even residents of The Villages, generally.

Quite frankly, I don't believe the source's data reflects the average appreciation, over time, of The Villages or any area with an average income over $50,000/year.

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by ElDiabloJoe

By the way, the source you linked has not been updated in 15 years (2009), so big grain of salt there. Anyhow...

Unless this is taking into account houses in the sparse regions of Wyoming and South Dakota or maybe including permanent-burn areas like downtown Detroit, I find these numbers crazy talk.

Your sources are telling you that in over 50 years, housing has only appreciated under 4%? So the average 1970 home price of $25,000 has only gone up to approximately $1000? so now the 2019 average home price was $26,000?

Even if that 4% (rounding up) is compounded annually, the 2019 average home price, according to your sources, is $178,000? That might be a more believable number, and your post and your data should indicate the results were from interest compound annually. However you would have to live in a mighty rural or economically depressed area (or in a single-wide, or a 50+ year old rambler, or up a 'Haller' in Appalachia where I actually do have a house) to find a $178,000 house. Averaged out across ALL housing - including tiny homes and cardboard boxes - maybe we reach your sources's numbers.

Or, maybe I should buy a lottery ticket because I have always made money - and lots of it (25-150%) on every home I've bought, owned, lived in, and sold.

Your sources do not, in my humble opinion, reflect the experience of neither anyone I'm familiar with nor anyone frequenting this forum, nor even residents of The Villages, generally.

Quite frankly, I don't believe the source's data reflects the average appreciation, over time, of The Villages or any area with an average income over $50,000/year.

Anecdotal and undocumented information about an individual's personal experience, doesn't indicate a "trend" nor nullify the economic data.

The numbers are the numbers, but if you'd like more recent data, here you go:

2023: https://money.usnews.com/investing/a...higher-returns

2024: Real Estate Vs. Stock Investments – What’s Better? - MarketBeat

Real estate in the USA over the last 100 years, has generally returned a rate of 4%-5%. Some years, significantly higher, some years not so much.

The point is, "investing in real estate" is for investors and carries risk.

Buying shelter is a horse of a different color.

[Altavia]

This market is nothing near "average."

There are 10,000 people retiring a day. Many own their current home and/or have 401K's in the millions looking for a safe, active retirement in the sunshine. More than 70/wk still choose The Villages.

Some Pre-retirement people can now work from home further expanding the market. And now there is Middleton.

At the end of the day, results are what counts. Villages average home sales 2023 were over $2.5 billion.

Pre-owned:
Avg 48/wk = 2,500 homes @ $465 = $1.2 Billion

New Home sales:
Avg 60/wk = 3,100 homes @ $420K = $1.3 billion

[ElDiabloJoe]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

Anecdotal and undocumented information about an individual's personal experience, doesn't indicate a "trend" nor nullify the economic data.

The numbers are the numbers, but if you'd like more recent data, here you go:

2023: https://money.usnews.com/investing/a...higher-returns

2024: Real Estate Vs. Stock Investments – What’s Better? - MarketBeat

Real estate in the USA over the last 100 years, has generally returned a rate of 4%-5%. Some years, significantly higher, some years not so much.

The point is, "investing in real estate" is for investors and carries risk.

Buying shelter is a horse of a different color.

Well, I must either be a brilliant savant or I am incredibly lucky and need to start paying the stupid tax (buying lottery tickets).

[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by Altavia

This market is nothing near "average."

There are 10,000 people retiring a day. Many own their current home and/or have 401K's in the millions looking for a safe, active retirement in the sunshine. More than 70/wk still choose The Villages.

Some Pre-retirement people can now work from home further expanding the market. And now there is Middleton.

At the end of the day, results are what counts. Villages average home sales 2023 were over $2.5 billion.

Pre-owned:
Avg 48/wk = 2,500 homes @ $465 = $1.2 Billion

New Home sales:
Avg 60/wk = 3,100 homes @ $420K = $1.3 billion

It is NEVER a good idea to look at things from the Developer's side. Yes, he is making money. But! More than 250 new homes have been reduced, there is still a lack of commercial, hospital plans scratched, and Florida weather hasn't been much better than other states. The last hurricane was closer to the Villages than years past. Put all this together and new home sales have seen a 23% decline and preowned homes are sitting on the market with 50-70/week
experiencing drastic price reductions.

Keep posting news the Developer is doing GREAT. The rest of us will post how his GREATNESS is affecting homeowners.

Do you have an update on how many leases there are for Middleton? Last I heard, there was only one- a barbecue joint. Who wants to live in or near a ghost town? The Developers theory," if you build it, they will come", doesn't appear to be working.

[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by frayedends

I was making a joke implying some go to heaven and some go to the other place. Just some morning humor.

Went right over my head. Too funny!

[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by ElDiabloJoe

Well, I must either be a brilliant savant or I am incredibly lucky and need to start paying the stupid tax (buying lottery tickets).

Not a brilliant sauvant. A lucky turn of events after Covid. Abnormal events are not taken into account when analyzing data. I believe Brian's numbers are correct.