[Tim C.]

the situation is different, yes, but I don't recall people in 2004 getting $100K over their asking price. that's what's happening around the Tampa area, just for one. The confluence of inflation, likely rising interest rates, and the bloated prices in homes right now will result in a similar housing meltdown within the next 12 months. it's what I think. if you're going to sell, sell now. Don't wait. it's what our financial advisor told us (and yes, he sold, is living in a friend's condo and expects to buy back in next year when prices fall). I've read this in other places. I tend to believe it. We at this point own two houses - one in TV, one in Tampa. Our house in Tampa goes on the market saturday

[petsetc]

Originally Posted by JMintzer

Can you show me the evidence that they are "withholding inventory"?

Seriously, I'm very interested in your source for this information...

I can only offer our experience. In Feb, 2015 when we signed our contract in Dunedin, the entire section we were in was built out empty. None of the houses were pre-sold until our area was completely done. Additionally, one of the houses across the street from me was not put offered for sale until a year later.

The Villages has used various "release for sale" strategies during my 6 years of ownership. They release or withhold in such a manner as to maintain their desired flow/mix. It's there plan to understand.

Just Sayin'

[Bill14564]

Originally Posted by JMintzer

And actual proof that is happening?

It would be difficult to find proof either way. It was not my intention to claim any unique or absolute knowledge, only to propose a third possibility.

"The Developer" is clearly a clever businessperson who would want to maximize his profit. Knowing/believing that there will be no end to demand in the Villages and seeing a nationwide increase in price due to a shortage of inventory it would make sense to keep the supply tight here as well. On the other hand, shortages in materials and labor and a high demand would also limit the number of homes that could be built while burning through any available inventory.

[Jayhawk]

Originally Posted by Tim C.

Don't wait. it's what our financial advisor told us (and yes, he sold, is living in a friend's condo and expects to buy back in next year when prices fall). I've read this in other places. I tend to believe it.

If Financial Advisors knew anything, they wouldn't be working for companies giving people advice for a fee. They would keep the secrets for themselves and get stinky rich. And one who couch surfs at a friend's condo and claims to know prices will fall next year is completely full of crap.

[Normal]

Financial Advisors aren’t necessarily experts in real estate. I looked on the Villages website today and many average homes are in the 600 and 700s. That may seem high, but people still need houses and they just don’t have enough of them. This is probably more the time to build (good luck finding a lot). As far as cheaper or costs going down, ya, if you want a manufactured home in the Northeastern section there are deals to be had. Homefinder - The Villages(R) Homes and Villas for Sale
If you are looking at anything South off 466A, forget it. It just won’t ever happen unless you want 8K a year in taxes, an annual bond of 2300 and you are willing to plop down that 700k.

The true sweet spot if you are a buyer may be between Sumter and 466A?

[Tim C.]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk

If Financial Advisors knew anything, they wouldn't be working for companies giving people advice for a fee. They would keep the secrets for themselves and get stinky rich. And one who couch surfs at a friend's condo and claims to know prices will fall next year is completely full of crap.

well he is his own company, and he is probably pretty wealthy and he DID take his own advice. as I noted in my post, he sold his house a couple of months ago, is renting a condo while waiting for the market to cool down and then will buy back in. so clearly he is taking his own advice. investments? He tailors the investments for what each of his clients need or want, and according to their own goals. I know he invests his own money as well. so what's the beef?

and he doesn't charge me by the hour. he's done real well for me the last 10 years. Well worth the money

[MrFlorida]

No inventory = no sales. Looks like people are staying put.

[BlueStarAirlines]

Noticed there are anywhere from 3-5 homes that are dropping prices each week. I still think they are overpriced, but at least the owners are realizing it too. I have to give it to the first house though, they shot for the moon-missed-and are being a little more realistic (still pretty high). Here are two from just yesterday:

Reduced $106k- 17657 SE 88th Covington Cir, THE VILLAGES, FL 32162 | MLS# G5043146 | Redfin

Reduced $10k- 7199 SE 173rd Arlington Loop, The Villages, FL 32162 | MLS #G5042997 | Zillow

[Babubhat]

Warning to the Real-Estate Cartel. WSJ
The Justice Department will take a new look at those outrageous brokers fees

About time

[Normal]

There is an Ottawa in St. Catherine for a steal! Just under 550 K

/s/

[thelegges]

Originally Posted by BlueStarAirlines

Noticed there are anywhere from 3-5 homes that are dropping prices each week. I still think they are overpriced, but at least the owners are realizing it too. I have to give it to the first house though, they shot for the moon-missed-and are being a little more realistic (still pretty high). Here are two from just yesterday:

Reduced $106k- 17657 SE 88th Covington Cir, THE VILLAGES, FL 32162 | MLS# G5043146 | Redfin

Reduced $10k- 7199 SE 173rd Arlington Loop, The Villages, FL 32162 | MLS #G5042997 | Zillow

Looked at the first house. It’s nice we were the 15 appointment, no takers, so notified of reduced asking. I am guessing some want to sell for next house. Asking for the moon, and when it doesn’t happen, prices come to a more realistic asking.

[Babubhat]

Nice houses but at that price I would want new and not 20 years old. Doesn’t say if it needs a new roof air conditioning and all the other maintenance items that Add up

[Timothyimitchell]

10 new houses available. Slim pickens

[FromDC]

Originally Posted by Timothyimitchell

10 new houses available. Slim pickens

I just looked and agree with you......ONLY 10 NEW HOMES FOR SALE in The Villages?? Will someone ask a sales person ...is this a land rush? ....Do they have a shortage of building supplies? ...Why such a limited of supply of homes/villas? They are pushing dirt on both sides of turnpike and there are so many workers south of 44. Only 10??

[thelegges]

Originally Posted by FromDC

I just looked and agree with you......ONLY 10 NEW HOMES FOR SALE in The Villages?? Will someone ask a sales person ...is this a land rush? ....Do they have a shortage of building supplies? ...Why such a limited of supply of homes/villas? They are pushing dirt on both sides of turnpike and there are so many workers south of 44. Only 10??

Our friends bought in St Catherine May 3, closing isn’t until July 22. Range, garage doors openers, floor molding 2 closet doors are still missing as of last week. There are many homes the outside is complete, but interior still has detail work to be finished.

As we drove in the area of their home, there might be 100 plus homes, some have names and sold in the window, but interior has a ways to go. You see very few workers, and trucks in the area. So might just be lack of supplies. Not sure of state of Florida on what house must have for closing on a loan.

For those who have lived here awhile, when was the last time you didn’t see a home close in 30 DAYS, on a new build.