[biker1]

There doesn’t appear to be much, if any, impact from anthropogenic climate change on hurricanes. Our ability to observe hurricanes improved in the early 60s when weather satellites went up. Therefore, the reliable record is only for the last 60 years. Some of the climate modeling suggests that the future may bring a reduction in the number of hurricanes but those that do form may be stronger.

Originally Posted by Retiredsteve

I'm starting to wonder if there isn't something to that climate change stuff

[kkingston57]

Originally Posted by biker1

The center of the circulation of Irma passed to the west of The Villages as a tropical storm or just barely a cat 1 in 2017. The wind field has very broad.

In TV winds will vary as it is much bigger than the eye of almost all hurricanes. Milton looks bad. If this strength of a storm was this close to the coastal areas 90% of the people would now be putting up storm shutters and plywood would be un available. My 1st storm without having shutters or impact glass and hoping for the best.

[kkingston57]

Originally Posted by Windguy

According to Weather Underground, the highest sustained winds are expected to be 32 MPH in Wildwood on Wednesday evening. So, the forecasters are predicting significant weakening as it crosses the state.

Would not trust 32MPH. That is like a strong breeze in the Midwest USA. Per Weather Channel will still be hurricane after it crosses state.

[biker1]

See post #36. The NHC updates their probabilities frequently. We will have a much better idea 24-48 hours in advance. We are still about 84 hours out. You should not focus exclusively on the track of the center of the circulation since the wind field can extend out a considerable distance. Regardless, the NHC’s average track error at 4 days is about 150 miles.

Originally Posted by kkingston57

In TV winds will vary as it is much bigger than the eye of almost all hurricanes. Milton looks bad. If this strength of a storm was this close to the coastal areas 90% of the people would now be putting up storm shutters and plywood would be un available. My 1st storm without having shutters or impact glass and hoping for the best.

[Regorp]

Originally Posted by mbene

Looks like the next hurricane is on its way.

https://youtu.be/hq5c8_X1Iio?si=4jUHi0l_2DoYxndZ

Here comes Uncle Miltie! Fox weather Brian Norcross says get ready for 5-8 inches of rain with winds up to 50mph in central Florida. Batten down the hatches!!

[tophcfa]

Got notice this AM that Tuesdays Jet Blue flight to Orlando is in Jeopardy. On another note, is it a coincidence that the Villages self appointed weather expert is notoriously absent from this important weather related thread?

[kkingston57]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Question: If a hurricane develops and causes damage in other areas but, when it arrives in The Villages, the sustained winds are only about 40 or 50 mph, does that mean that The Villages did NOT experience a hurricane? If so, has The Viillages ever experienced a hurricane? As I understand it, wind gusts do not count, only "sustained" winds. And, tornadoes do not count. I have heard a lot of people talk about hurricanes they experienced in The Villages, but when I have looked at the historical data, I have never found a time when The Villages ever experienced "sustained" hurricane wind speeds of 74 mph or greater.

Good ? and no one will ever know because of the size of TV. Biggest concern on hurricane vs non hurricane is for insurance purposes. If TV does not have hurricane force winds you will still have a hurricane, deductible (2-5% of your building limit) will apply as opposed to a regular deductible.

[kkingston57]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Thanks. I could be wrong, but, as I understand it, there a separate deductible for hurricanes vs regular wind damage. But, the wind speed is not a factor. If there is a "named" hurricane in the area, and your house has wind damage, the hurricane deductible applies, even if the wind speed at your house was lower than 74 mph.

You are right. I was in the business. If this was not the norm, almost every small hurricane claim would be in court. Wind speeds can vary in a neighborhood. Our house is at top of cul de sac and other end of my street is 20 feet lower.

[RRGuyNJ]

I thought being inland 100 miles would be safe and sound in NC. Our first season we had Hurricane Irene decide to stop right on top of us at tropical storm status. We ended up needing a new roof and work done on some outbuildings. Nearly $30k in damage in 2011. Be safe.

[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Thanks. I could be wrong, but, as I understand it, there a separate deductible for hurricanes vs regular wind damage. But, the wind speed is not a factor. If there is a "named" hurricane in the area, and your house has wind damage, the hurricane deductible applies, even if the wind speed at your house was lower than 74 mph.

If most of read The fine print in insurance policy we’ll realize how worthless insurance scams are. The underwriters know this. IMO it shouldn’t matter you had damage for act of nature and it should be covered, why we get insurance. I won’t rant about lobbing effect.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by biker1

Some of the 06Z model runs have the center of the circulation south of The Villages on Wednesday evening. The NHC’s cone of possibilities is very broad at that point, as it should be since that is 3.5 days out. At this point, there is little doubt that we will be impacted. At this time, the NHC has a low probability of us experiencing hurricane force winds. That can change as we get closer in time. See the latest storm track guidance from the NHC below.

TROPICAL STORM MILTON

If it hits south of The Villages, that would put us on the less powerful side, I believe.

[Bill14564]

Originally Posted by ElDiabloJoe

I have a question. Seriously wondering, not questioning moderation standards or guidelines. Is this permissible?

I was under the impression that such highly politicized content was verboten. This constant fear mongering on this same topic over and over again. Are you telling me this isn't a TOS violation? It's almost harassment, or even spam at this point. It's misinformation and if this were a social media platform it would have a huge "FACT CHECK" over it and you wouldn't even be able to see it unless you clicked through all the warnings. These claims that keep getting screamed in all caps are dubious and based on dubious scientific data of which there are plenty of reputable counter-studies.

Would it be okay if I kept posting (in almost every post I make) that our usage of electric vehicles is driving a massive pending sky-is-falling environmental disaster in the form of lithium mining and disposal?

I'm simply looking for clarification and posting guidelines so that I do not err and violate TOS.

I don't see anything at all political in that rant. Repetitive? Yes. Annoying? Yes. But political? No.

Not misinformation either. The conclusions are heavily debated (strangely, in my opinion) but the rant cites numbers and facts that can easily be confirmed.

Perhaps a response to this would be to post some of the reputable counter-studies. (another option is to ignore the user... that approach works well for me)

Please don't respond to the bad behavior with more bad behavior. Besides the fact that two wrongs don't make a right, history has shown that response will only result in a thread being closed or deleted.

[Normal]

This is a great time to invite any neighbors along the coast you may know to ride out this storm. Hudson, Crystal River, Newport Richey, Tarpon Springs, Tampa, and Homosassa all seem to have a fair chance of impact. Fill up your camping bladders or water bottles and make sure you have some low maintenance meal supplies and plans. Move all your outdoor items in. Recharge those rechargeable items you may need and fill up your gas tanks. Above all, stay safe.

This storm could produce surges not seen since 1921 (above 10 feet). Many spaghetti models do not look favorable to our area.

Irrelevant to the impact zone, it is forecasted to be at least a Category 3, enhanced by a warm gulf the massive preexisting low which is directly in its path. Inner pressure is dropping at a fantastic rate as the storm became a category 1 at 2 PM. The storm is at 1003MB. For those not necessarily storm savvy, low pressure and warm water feed storms and only increase dangerous conditions.

Be prepared now!

[Altavia]

Informative Florida Division of Emergency Management site.

Exhaustive list of great storm resources is from FDEM. Including links to your local county EOC.

Tropical Storm Milton | Florida Disaster

[mbene]

Here is a video, at the end they explain how the hurricane deductible works

https://youtu.be/0gibhWP4hA8?si=PoTwxeK-0UmWUCly

Originally Posted by kkingston57

Good ? and no one will ever know because of the size of TV. Biggest concern on hurricane vs non hurricane is for insurance purposes. If TV does not have hurricane force winds you will still have a hurricane, deductible (2-5% of your building limit) will apply as opposed to a regular deductible.