[Normal]

Originally Posted by Flyers999

It's a Cat 5 now but the good news is that it's expected to downgrade to a Cat 3 at landfall, due to wind shear.

If landfall is below Tampa, that's good for TV. The more north, that's bad, obviously. During hurricane Ian 2022, we did not lose power, cable TV or internet. Landfall was a Cat 4, 110 miles below Tampa (just above Fort Myers).

Quite a different storm and trajectory to consider. This storm has a much more lateral movement tendency. It also has the probability making landfall barely north of Tampa (Tarpon Springs could see real trouble)I agree there can be some over hyped verbiage, but it does command the respect of its potential. If not for the very least the tornadoes that can spin off of her (him).

[retiredguy123]

Note that The Weather Channel hourly forecast for The Villages is currently showing that the highest wind speed will occur on Thursday morning at 7AM, at 33 mph. That is nowhere close to being hurricane wind speed.

[biker1]

The latest from the NHC:

5-10% probability of sustained winds over 74 mph, 20-30% probability of sustained winds over 59 mph, and 50-60% probability of sustained winds over 39 mph.

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Note that The Weather Channel hourly forecast for The Villages is currently showing that the highest wind speed will occur on Thursday morning at 7AM, at 33 mph. That is nowhere close to being hurricane wind speed.

[Flyers999]

Originally Posted by Normal

Quite a different storm and trajectory to consider. This storm has a much more lateral movement tendency. It also has the probability making landfall barely north of Tampa (Tarpon Springs could see real trouble)I agree there can be some over hyped verbiage, but it does command the respect of its potential. If not for the very least the tornadoes that can spin off of her (him).

Yes, it doesn't look good for TV, but there's still several hours to go.
A network just predicted 13.5 inches for TV. Stupid me, this is the first year I didn't get flood ins of the eight years I"ve been here. None of my neighbors, who have been here much longer than I, have ever had to use sandbags or had flooding in their garage or home. So I got that going for me.
Should be interesting.

[biker1]

Predicting 13.5 inches is really silly. That implies a level of accuracy (tenths of inches) that doesn’t exist. The forecast from the NHC has us in the range of 6-12 inches.

Originally Posted by Flyers999

Yes, it doesn't look good for TV, but there's still several hours to go.
A network just predicted 13.5 inches for TV. Stupid me, this is the first year I didn't get flood ins of the eight years I"ve been here. None of my neighbors, who have been here much longer that I, have ever had to use sandbags or had flooding in their garage or home. So I got that going for me.
Should be interesting.

[mikeycereal]

If Windy: Wind map & weather forecast is accurate it shows the eye of the hurricane had turned south several miles below Orlando from what I saw the other day. The Villages is double that distance above Orlando and near the outskirts of the path edge. Not looking like we're out of it yet, but at least we're not the center pin according to that site.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Normal

Quite a different storm and trajectory to consider. This storm has a much more lateral movement tendency. It also has the probability making landfall barely north of Tampa (Tarpon Springs could see real trouble)I agree there can be some over hyped verbiage, but it does command the respect of its potential. If not for the very least the tornadoes that can spin off of her (him).

Experts are predicting that it will be the 4th strongest hurricane to ever hit the US. On its possible paths there are VERY populated areas, so it could be the most expensive hurricane ever in the US.

[mikeycereal]

I was just watching Mike's youtube and he gives another voice to this. He is not downplaying it by any means and also mentioned just because you're not in the middle of the path doesn't mean there'll be minimal damage because the winds can vary. Just wanted to add that so others aren't less prepared because of the projected path. I'd still keep a watch for updates which I'm sure most of you are.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Originally Posted by mikeycereal

I was just watching Mike's youtube and he gives another voice to this. He is not downplaying it by any means and also mentioned just because you're not in the middle of the path doesn't mean there'll be minimal damage because the winds can vary. Just wanted to add that so others aren't less prepared because of the projected path. I'd still keep a watch for updates which I'm sure most of you are.

I didn't click on the link but I agree with your summary of whatever it was about.

Basically I consider a hurricane to be comparable to an old fashioned string floor mop, and a floor with a few glass goblets, a couple of toys, and a house made with Tinker Toys (remember those?) or Lincoln Logs.

If you spin the mop, it'll basically decimate whatever is directly beneath the mop handle. Anything near the handle will be moved. Glass goblets will be toppled and shatter. The house will come apart and its pieces spread all over the place.

As you get closer to the ends of the mop strings, you'll see less damage, but still plenty of movement. The glasses will still topple, but maybe not enough force to break them. The lincoln log houses might not move, but the plastic cover used for a roof might be jarred loose, and the door might get pulled off and spread away from the path of the mop. The toys will be spread everywhere - which MIGHT end up breaking those glasses even if they didn't break yet.

The mop is turning VERY fast. And it's moving in a path to the other side of the room. Whatever is in the middle of the path will be ruined (or picked up by the mop). Whatever is hit with the ends of the strings will suffer damage, or be whipped to another part of the room.

Same with a hurricane, but the houses are real, the toys and glasses are ANYTHING that isn't secured to the ground like chairs, lawn ornaments, planters, your swinging address sign, and possibly even your golf cart.

[Escape Artist]

Odd that it formed in the Gulf so quickly after Helene. I don’t recall a hurricane developing in the Gulf and transforming from a Cat 3 to a Cat 5 within a day or two.

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

Experts are predicting that it will be the 4th strongest hurricane to ever hit the US. On its possible paths there are VERY populated areas, so it could be the most expensive hurricane ever in the US.

"Ever"? Have they been measuring the strength of hurricanes for 250 years?

[Velvet]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Note that The Weather Channel hourly forecast for The Villages is currently showing that the highest wind speed will occur on Thursday morning at 7AM, at 33 mph. That is nowhere close to being hurricane wind speed.

Yes that’s what I noticed too, and also NOAA is indicating a slightly southern path than before.

[biker1]

There is still uncertainty in the track. The average NHC forecast track error at 36 hours is about 60 miles. Their 4 PM update moved the track a bit south of Tampa based on a bit of a wobble that may not have been incorporated into the exact location of the circulation in the 18Z model initial conditions. Regardless, the 00Z model runs this evening will be the one I pay particular attention to. The GFS results are available around midnight with other model results available before and after midnight.

Originally Posted by Velvet

Yes that’s what I noticed too, and also NOAA is indicating a slightly southern path than before.

[MorTech]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

Experts are predicting that it will be the 4th strongest hurricane to ever hit the US. On its possible paths there are VERY populated areas, so it could be the most expensive hurricane ever in the US.

Oh No! We.Are.All.Going.To.DIE !!!!

The 5 major weather trackers at windy.com have Milton landing all over the place. I'm betting on GFS for accuracy Maybe ICON.

[mntlblok]

Originally Posted by MorTech

Oh No! We.Are.All.Going.To.DIE !!!!

The 5 major weather trackers at windy.com have Milton landing all over the place. I'm betting on GFS for accuracy Maybe ICON.

Aren't these various models examples of that "butterfly effect" thing - how initial assumptions (if off even a tiny bit) get magnified out into the future?