[Billyworld]

"Never try to teach a pig how to dance. The pig will never learn how to dance. You just irritate the pig!"

[graciegirl]

You can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear.

[Barefoot]

Originally Posted by Billyworld

There are no hardcore facts to predict the future. I do know as a fact that most people that invested in the stock market in the early 2000's lost their butt. The same people that invested in Real Estate in the mid 2000's lost also. They all jumped on the bandwagon and lost. I NEVER LOST!

As for the "snowbirds moving down here full time or at least for 9 moths why wouldn't they?

We have no state income tax and unlike most northern states, when you die the greedy Govt. doesn't steal your estate money that you would leave to your kids. With owning a home in TV, why would you not take advantage of the tax laws we enjoy. As for where will people go? I lived in the Datyona area for 23 years before moving to TV. In Volusia County,look and see what a house compared to yours in TV would go for. I could buy my house on a larger lot for 200k less. This ain't no deal. Also, our sales tax was 6.5% for the first $5,000 and 6% after the first $5,000 in purchase. If you think this bubble won't burst, I suggest you gobble up as many properties as you can possibly buy. That would be what a serious investor would do with a "sure thing".

You've predicted that a Bust is coming, and that The Villages will become a "madhouse" once most snowbirds move here full time. NJbchbum offered good insights as to why that may not happen.

[Big47moe]

Originally Posted by Billyworld

"Never try to teach a pig how to dance. The pig will never learn how to dance. You just irritate the pig!"

Pigs make money, Hogs get slaughtered!

[villagerjack]

Crowds might have been a factor if not for the way the access to amenities is controlled the AAC, a genius move by the Morse Family that allows fair access to amenities for 3-4 month snowbirds. IN other over55 communities, full time residents devise ways of controlling the Amenities by forming clubs, teams etc that monopolize the amenities, in many cases denying access to the snowbirds. This us nit permitted in The Villages. It is also interesting that it is the snowbirds buying homes during the downturn that kept the decline in home Prices, way below other areas if the country and that is because they have equal access to the amenities and did not have to sell their home in a depressed market to buy home on The Villages. BTW, it is a myth to suggest that Snowbirds will stop being snowbirds. Most of them are already retired and want to keep two homes. BTW snowbirds do not think it is crowded here even in the so called high season. The more people, the merrier.

[villagerjack]

Originally Posted by Big47moe

Pigs make money, Hogs get slaughtered!

The saying really goes like this : "Bulls make money, Bears make money and Pigs get slaughtered." I am a Bull on home Prices in The Villages.

[villagerjack]

Originally Posted by Billyworld

"Never try to teach a pig how to dance. The pig will never learn how to dance. You just irritate the pig!"

"Nobody goes there anymore, it is too crowded".....Yogi Berra.

[LI SNOWBIRD]

Originally Posted by rubicon

The prices today still have not reached the 2005-2007 prices. Back then they told you what you were going to pay and what you were going to get there was no negotiations . so I told the sales rep what I wanted in a house and at what price. Three weeks later she called and it meant our satisfaction including the location.

there are people buying homes here who may/may not live here and using them exclusively as rentals.

We got the same spiel/deal from our realtor in 2005 "We know what you want" take it or leave it attitude... and we took it and love it.

[TrudyM]

I am not saying it isn't great here. I am not attaching your lovely community. I am not saying that the demand to come here is not going to continue.
I was asking if people thought that the speculators were artificially causing the prices to hike above what demand would normally support.
I am a number cruncher, when I started putting the listings of pre-owned in a spreadsheet in order to determine patterns I noticed a considerable number of listings that had been purchased within the last 24 months that were for sale listed at 30 to 50 thousand (or more)above the purchase price recorded in the county records. Most people do not buy a place and then resell in a year or two especially if they rented it out in the interim and I recognized some from my rental search (I have over 300 rentals in a spreadsheet).
I am also not referring to those on my list that were purchased in 2005-2008 and are listed at 75 to 100 thousand over what they paid (also a huge hike but not the point) and are likely to have made improvements. I by the way subtract the bond from the price listed when it shows bond pd as to be comparing apples to apples none of what I consider may be speculator listings on my list pd off the bond unless it already was.

Example from the paper today: 2959 DUKE TER Sanibel purchased Dec 2012 for $209,699 now listed for $299,000 selling turnkey but was purchased as a model furnished. Listed just after the 1 year villages prohibition on resales for profit.
------2923 Braddy Ct-Sanibel - Sold nov 2012 $465,700 now listed mls $648,500 has added a pool and birdcage.

[JourneyOfLife]

I have not looked into home prices in TV or how much they have increased.

But here are a few general observations:

1) Unless I intend to sell, property value increases just cost me money.... higher taxes, higher insurance costs, possibly higher fees.

2) Prices tend to reach equilibrium whether it is a bubble popping or fewer buyers show up that are willing to pay elevated prices.

3) There are substitutes! Always!!!!

4) If home prices are rising quickly and I felt like I was trapped with a second home over the last several years... I would be looking to unload it soon!

[manaboutown]

Is there a bubble growing within the bubble? Who knows, but RE prices have been rising in many desirable locations around the country.

A perceived approaching build out may feed a buy now or lose mentality to prospective purchasers. My concern is more about how efficiently and economically things will be run after the buildout! The Morses have done an incredible job at developing and managing the infrastructure at seemingly low cost. "Real" governments do not run as efficiently as a well run private enterprise.

[TexaninVA]

Originally Posted by Billyworld

There are no hardcore facts to predict the future. I do know as a fact that most people that invested in the stock market in the early 2000's lost their butt. The same people that invested in Real Estate in the mid 2000's lost also. They all jumped on the bandwagon and lost. I NEVER LOST! As for the "snowbirds moving down here full time or at least for 9 moths why wouldn't they? We have no state income tax and unlike most northern states, when you die the greedy Govt. doesn't steal your estate money that you would leave to your kids. With owning a home in TV, why would you not take advantage of the tax laws we enjoy. As for where will people go? I lived in the Datyona area for 23 years before moving to TV. In Volusia County,look and see what a house compared to yours in TV would go for. I could buy my house on a larger lot for 200k less. This ain't no deal. Also, our sales tax was 6.5% for the first $5,000 and 6% after the first $5,000 in purchase. If you think this bubble won't burst, I suggest you gobble up as many properties as you can possibly buy. That would be what a serious investor would do with a "sure thing".

In terms of saying loudly one has never lost, I personally would be reluctant to do that given jinxing my otherwise stellar track record. I'm also be concerned about the biblical injunction that pride precedeth a fall.

[Yorio]

Some of my friends who have houses on sale tell me that sales have slowed down and their houses are on the market for a few months. Perhaps it is because the price went too high in 2013. Pre-owned home price depends on what new homes are selling by the developers. Will be curious to find out what kind of prices will be put on spec. homes east of 466A in Fruitland Park when they build on the newest land acquisition. It is also true that many of my friends up north are getting tired of what's happening with current snow storms. It was 2010 snow storm in North East when we said, let's get something in TV. Also, curious to know when the last of the Boomers are retiring. As you know we are a community of 100M to max 120M. Yes, I know unless Morse family decides to think otherwise. Will we go the way of Del Webb? Who knows.

[rubicon]

Originally Posted by Yorio

Some of my friends who have houses on sale tell me that sales have slowed down and their houses are on the market for a few months. Perhaps it is because the price went too high in 2013. Pre-owned home price depends on what new homes are selling by the developers. Will be curious to find out what kind of prices will be put on spec. homes east of 466A in Fruitland Park when they build on the newest land acquisition. It is also true that many of my friends up north are getting tired of what's happening with current snow storms. It was 2010 snow storm in North East when we said, let's get something in TV. Also, curious to know when the last of the Boomers are retiring. As you know we are a community of 100M to max 120M. Yes, I know unless Morse family decides to think otherwise. Will we go the way of Del Webb? Who knows.

boomers are from 1945 to 1954 if they retired at 62 be 2016 up until 2020

[TrudyM]

Originally Posted by Yorio

Some of my friends who have houses on sale tell me that sales have slowed down and their houses are on the market for a few months. Perhaps it is because the price went too high in 2013. Pre-owned home price depends on what new homes are selling by the developers. .

So the developer prices are setting the tone versus the overall market prices affecting the developer , you may be right there.