[dbussone]

Originally Posted by tomwed

my math is wrong----it's a compound equation
year 1 114,350 x 1.054 = 120,524
year 2 120,524 x 1.054 = 127,032

year 16 =265,268

That's enough for a Costco and a Trader Joe's!

I'll forgo both to keep the population much lower!

I think we are projected to have a pop'n around 125K at buildout. And we sure won't have much internal growth ... what with the fertility rate here ... so I think 125K is probably pretty realistic. I.e., Unless the developer keeps finding more property around here.

[Villager65]

Out of curiosity, what are you basing the growth rate on? The Villages approaches its buildout in about 2 years. Not trying to be sarcastic, but how can The Villages approach such a growth by 2030?

[Polar Bear]

I hate to sound like a broken record, but "buildout" is a moving target, updated as each new phase comes along.

[dbussone]

Originally Posted by Polar Bear

I hate to sound like a broken record, but "buildout" is a moving target, updated as each new phase comes along.

Polar - you are too young to be a broken record...how about a loop on a reel to reel recorder? 😃 (Just kidding, you know)

[tomwed]

Originally Posted by Villager65

Out of curiosity, what are you basing the growth rate on? The Villages approaches its buildout in about 2 years. Not trying to be sarcastic, but how can The Villages approach such a growth by 2030?

I base the 5.4% growth rate from the following piece. The buildout changes everything.

The Villages, FL—America's fastest-growing metro area
Jacob Pramuk | @jacobpramuk
Thursday, 26 Mar 2015 | 11:55 AM ET

The U.S. migration to sunshine continues.

The Villages—a Florida area based around its namesake retirement community—was the fastest-growing U.S. metropolitan area for the second year in a row, the U.S. Census Bureau said on Thursday. Six Florida metropolitan areas ranked among the 20 fastest-growing in the country.

Growth in those metropolitan areas helped Florida become the nation's third most populous state.

The Villages grew by 5.4 percent between July 1, 2013 and July 1, 2014. Its population sat at an estimated 114,350 as of July.

[Polar Bear]

Originally Posted by dbussone

Polar - you are too young to be a broken record...how about a loop on a reel to reel recorder? 😃 (Just kidding, you know)

Heheh. You ARE kidding! I'm old enough to be an accidental scratch on a hieroglyphic!!

[dbussone]

Originally Posted by Polar Bear

Heheh. You ARE kidding! I'm old enough to be an accidental scratch on a hieroglyphic!!

Ok, so a not so dead sea scroll then?

[jhdarien]

How true

[FosterMomma]

I'm hoping to be alive then... that might just be good enough!

[KEVIN & JOSIE]

I think we assume moving forward that the now young future Villagers will have enough retirement income to sustain The Villages lifestyle. With more elimination of defined pensions, difficulty saving for retirement, and employment with lower salaries, The Villages could actually decrease in population size by 2030. Young people today are experiencing difficulty trying to build their net worth. Not saying this is going to happen, just throwing out another scenario.

[Bogie Shooter]

Originally Posted by KEVIN & JOSIE

I think we assume moving forward that the now young future Villagers will have enough retirement income to sustain The Villages lifestyle. With more elimination of defined pensions, difficulty saving for retirement, and employment with lower salaries, The Villages could actually decrease in population size by 2030. Young people today are experiencing difficulty trying to build their net worth. Not saying this is going to happen, just throwing out another scenario.

Not all of them are having a problem.

[KEVIN & JOSIE]

Not a blanket statement that ALL are experiencing trouble. Just saying that there may be enough to impact the future. Again, nobody has a crystal ball.

[tomwed]

Village Van 160 for 2 people plus tip

Orlando to NYC 400 for 2 people round trip

In 2030 I want an airport nearby flying north everyday. With 40% of the villagers coming from the northeast I think this would be a real game changer. You could visit the grand kids more often if you didn't have to deal with the Orlando airport.

[pauld315]

I thought The Villages was out of land to build on with about 55000 homes (approx 110000 residents) or has that changed ?

[Polar Bear]

Originally Posted by pauld315

I thought The Villages was out of land to build on...or has that changed ?

It hasn't changed...it was simply never true.