[ChiTownJohnny]

Originally Posted by ThirdOfFive

Some time back I recall reading in another publication that such predictions of doom-and-gloom seem to be as regular as snowbird season and complaints about bad driving. There will always be those who see the glass as half-empty.

One of the things that fascinates me about them is the inevitable referral to "an aging population", as if that fact spells death for this-or-that area or business. Yeah--TV has an "aging population". But the result of aging is death. And as people die, they are replaced with younger folks. In our neighborhood we've had five families move in this year that I know of: two of them has one or both spouses still working remotely. the rest are younger retirees. The Village we live in came online in the late 1990s. My guess is that the average age of Villagers in our little corner of heaven is younger now than at any other time in the past ten years.

The other fallacy is "growth". As in mushrooms apparently. But the fact of the matter is that The Villages doesn't grow up. It grows OUT. Individual villages with their own individual character and architecture are pretty much constant. My guess is that, again using our Village as an example, if you went back in time to, say, Y2K and took a drive through it, virtually the ONLY difference you'd see between now and then is that the cars look somewhat different.

As to that "footprint" growing larger, in terms of space anyway, that is admittedly having an impact. But population outgrowing infrastructure, especially in a place growing as fast as TV (or Florida in general, for that matter) is natural. You won't see businesses being developed or medical services being implemented on merely the EXPECTATION of growth. The growth has to actually happen first. Infrastructure (services, roads, utilities, etc.) then is developed. But the settled, older neighborhoods aren't experiencing that. The last major infrastructure expansion here was the widening of 27/441. Businesses come and businesses go, but the restaurants closing in Spanish Springs are being replaced by restaurants that are significantly BETTER in most respects than the ones that have closed, and are doing commensurately better than the shuttered ones did. Don't confuse the results of healthy competition with "shrinkage" caused by whatever imagined reason.

TV is healthy. And as expansion continues and more and more opportunities and services are created, is getting healthier.

Well said.

[MorTech]

You have sites like Amazon dematerializing retail stores...You have older retirees who can't afford to eat out as often thanks to inflation. Retail and Eatery are becoming tough businesses.

[Laker14]

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

Many people who visit the squares during the day aren't Villagers at all. The land that all those stores is on, the buildings - they're all owned by the Villages LLC. And they NEED to profit, if they want to stay in business. They might not be interested in developing anymore, but they still own those properties and still have to profit from them. They won't profit if no one wants to lease their vacancies. They'll still have to pay property tax though, whether they have revenue or not.

In addition, all those people who -work- in the area - need a place to be. Spanish Springs is in a very unique position, immediately off 441 - and the opportunity for it to be a destination location rather than a conclave of shops for residents - is enormous. It's absolutely a missed opportunity.

I dunno. Maybe I've just worked in retail and in offices as an "employee" and "consumer" rather than a boss or corporate geek for too long, but my perspective is one of someone who used to serve people in "destination locations" or used to be a customer in those destination locations.

I can see it very easily as being a miniature version of downtown Mt. Dora, minus the boating lake and hills. Antiques and vintage clothing shop, tiny ethnic restaurants, boutique shops, knick-knack stores, small-batch beauty and skin shop, a "make your own ceramics" shop, an old fashioned but small retro-50's Five and Dime with a soda fountain counter... a location that no matter who you are, how old you are, what your budget is, or how often you come, you'll find SOMETHING in at least one store that you'll want to buy and can afford.

I think you and I are essentially in agreement here, in that we both see that what SS was initially designed to do, and to be, i.e. a place that would make buying a home in TV more attractive by offering music, entertainment, dining, in a cozy, golf cart accessible location, for residents of TV, is no longer working.
The developer that initially built it had a huge stake in making it exciting in order to sell neighborhoods. Now the motivation is simply to be a profitable entity in itself. As it does so, appealing more to a younger population that lives outside of TV will likely make it less appealing to the older folks living in TV.

With some encouragement from the salesforce, perhaps we Villagers have come to think of the squares as something of "ours", and they are not.
This is another aspect of how things change as TV grows. As the population outside of TV grows, the market that the commercial interests around the squares target will be less about residents of TV, and more about the "regular" population around TV. Basically it will depend upon who spends money there.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Wow! Lots of Massholes piping up here!

Massachusetts has some of the best schools in the country, mostly private, and some very good public ones.
It has very nice 4 seasons, and short drives to mountains for skiing, and beaches for swimming and oceans for fishing and boating.

Best place in the world to live with kids as parents. As retirees, not so much, however, they just raised the estate tax threshold to $2.0M, so that is a big help, but the cost of living is highly dependent upon the price of oil ->

heating with fuel oil
electricity is imported from Canada and natural gas generation plants have to have NG shipped in.
Agriculture is being slowly eliminated with housing expansion
Being one of the oldest areas in the country, land and housing costs are at a premium due to very little land left in urban areas
Most all fresh vegetables are trucked in, so varies with the price of oil

So the main reason for us to move to FL is the weather and the lower cost of heating and transportation should there be another oil crises like in the 70s. Winter can be tough in NE as one ages. . it was all COLA and weather, and very little about taxes, etc. the healthcare is all worth it.

As far as the OP observations, meh, friends who have purchased in Spanish Spring last year, are waiting on the P&S agreement after accepting an offer on their MA house, and will be moving down to FL by the end of October. And in the past year, several houses on their very small street have turned over with young buyers, so given enough time, what's old will be young again. Interesting, the more N houses may have better amenities as they were put in when the costs were very much lower, so there may be more available at various price points than new houses at the similar price points.. .

They are excited to move, and since our house purchase was an impulse purchase, bought a plot after 3 days haven't never heard of TV before someone said to try a lifestyle vest to play golf, one can certainly over analyze a purchase. . . they took 5 years to find the house which checked all their boxes. Great if you can wait 5 years, etc.

Analysis with paralysis comes to mind, but you can't go wrong with simple criteria:
Do you like the location? the street, the views and the distances to necessities
Do you like the house style / amenities which you desire?
Do you like the price?
Can you afford the life style for at least 20 more years?

Then all the boxes are checked, and put an offer in. .

good luck. .

[Glowing Horizon]

Originally Posted by sowtime444

Spanish Springs has a revitalization plan to make it more like Brownwood. And the big Reina building is being turned into apartments. As long as there is re-investment in "older" areas I think The Villages will continue to do well. Of course sometimes it takes a lawsuit to spur that investment (First Responders Recreation Center, etc.).

Let's face it. We all like the *idea* of a cute little downtown with boutique shops to browse in, but as a tourist on vacation or a special occasion shopping trip, not somewhere where we shop on the regular. And restaurants in general have always been a tough business.

I also wonder what, if anything, will cause The Villages to lose its shine and favor in the top spot. Not maintaining and reinvesting in older areas is certainly one possibility, but I don't see that happening.

I think it will be larger shifts in the public consciousness. For example, home ownership. Right now lots of younger people prefer to rent things on a subscription than own them. A ZipCar membership is easier than maintaining your own car for example, if there is a ZipCar parking bay near where you live. These younger people will grow up and in 20 years might be thinking about retirement. Do they want to maintain their own house, hire the lawn service, pest service, fix stuff that breaks? Maybe The Villages will have to buy back some of their own homes that they built and manage them themselves as rentals. Or build more apartment buildings with communal ground-floors where people can gather and socialize with their neighbors indoors as well as out at the pool. Other trends besides home ownership might come into play, and The Villages may need to come up with much more varied models of neighborhoods. For example neighborhoods with community gardens, if that becomes more popular. Neighborhoods with native grasses and maintenance-free lawns instead of Florida grasses from hell. They might need to knock down some older houses to make way for such new developments. But I'm talking farther in the future. If they don't change and grow with the times, The Villages will become a less attractive place to be.

It is easy to look at The Villages and ponder what we would do differently if we started from scratch today. I have my own list:
- There are over 100 pools in The Villages but only two of them are zero-entry and only a dozen or so are of any decent size. There are also too few of them in the north. If I were a billionaire I would build an entire water park. Maybe even one of those inland beaches that they are building near Tampa. At least a lazy river!
- I would have made rec centers and the surrounding grounds a lot bigger, to accommodate all sorts of sports at each location. I know this is heathenistic but the amount of golf here takes up way too much real estate.
- I would have left a lot more trees in place. No shaded walking trails in the north is a big bummer.

Of course even with the resources, if I were to start to build the above, there wouldn't be enough people moving there right away to establish 3,000+ clubs that The Villages has. And that "first mover" advantage is huge.

If rising sea levels really start to claim the coasts, that will just force more Floridians into places like The Villages, so I think it's popularity will remain high even if adverse global weather starts to creep up, at least temporarily. Of course if Florida in its entirety is under water that is a different story.

central Florida nearly has more water UNDER it than its does around it so if water is your worry…

Me….I’m a water-lover. Looking at it, swimming in it, boating on it…bring it on!

My favorite things about Florida are its water, its sunshine and its people. I enjoy its ecology, its history & its growth. If it weren’t for being allergic to most seafood, I’d also love the food. Villagers are some of the luckiest people on the planet IMO. It’s not perfect but it’s pretty close.

[Glowing Horizon]

Originally Posted by Laker14

Fair points, but I think you miss a couple of factors of importance: The Developer is pretty much out of "developing" in the Spanish Springs area. Not totally, I admit, as the new efforts at the old Hacienda CC demonstrate, however, they are no longer building and selling entire neighborhoods up there. As a consequence they are no longer economically driven to provide any kind of entertainment or services in the Square with the idea of helping to sell homes. So, whatever goes into the commercial fronts at the Square will have to sink or swim on their own merits. Other than collecting rents, the Developer is not highly motivated.

2nd point: unlike 30 years ago when SS was first opened, there is a lot to find outside of TV, and it's no longer the only game in town.

So, as things continue to evolve, the Developer will likely, if it hasn't already started to happen, be forced to reduce rents, and commercial interests will have to find niches that work for the existing population.

Agree with most of your points but not about OBG & Spanish Springs. If the Developers were not continuing to build vast numbers of new homes & commercial, THEN their economic incentives toward OBG & SS would definitely decline. But they intend to sell to new people who would be very disincentivized if they were to see OBG or SS decline. Further, the Sharon is named after their family matron. Grandpa’s statue is in SS square. Nothing could be clearer. Retail & restaurants will need to evolve in TV just like they will in the rest of America. Since the demographic glut of baby boomers are all over 65 now, things will need to change. I’ve looked at several other places like OTOTW, Dell Webbs & Margaritavilles Ranch & others. TV remains hard to beat. Controlling taxes & fees will be critical IMO. Seniors need to be frugal & have controllable costs to have security & peace of mind TV has done a stellar job compared to others IMO.

[tophcfa]

Originally Posted by BostonTom

Massachusetts is the most highly educated state in the country. Feel free to Google that.

The below cartoon meme could easily represent the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Throughout my career, I was required to work with many actuaries and investment professionals who were considered math geniuses, some with MIT degrees. There is a huge difference between being book smart and the ability to excel at taking difficult exams, and having street smarts and common sense. We always joked that the so called genius actuaries wore loafers because they couldn’t figure out how to tie their shoes. Full disclosure, I have both an undergraduate and masters degree from the University of Massachusetts, which was rather accurately nicknamed Zoo Mass back in those days.

[Glowing Horizon]

Originally Posted by mikemalloy

I think that the economy may pay at least a part in the problem. Inflation has reduced the spending power of many residents especially those on fixed incomes.

A major contributor among my friends is the lack of home affordability for younger people—their kids. Adult kids keep moving back in their parents’ home & those adult kids are mostly not married & don't have children of their own. Some move back with spouse & kids! Maybe the bubble is distorting reality. My friends have said things like “there is no revolving door on the front of M&D’s house!” These are the same kids who did not care about getting a drivers license or their first car! Things have definitely changed. I could not wait to get my license & my first car. Living at my parents’ house would have been unthinkable.

To those who defend older homes: take solace. Young adults seem to prefer older homes. They like the character & mature trees, established lawns, better build quality, etc.

[Laker14]

Originally Posted by Glowing Horizon

Agree with most of your points but not about OBG & Spanish Springs. If the Developers were not continuing to build vast numbers of new homes & commercial, THEN their economic incentives toward OBG & SS would definitely decline. But they intend to sell to new people who would be very disincentivized if they were to see OBG or SS decline. Further, the Sharon is named after their family matron. Grandpa’s statue is in SS square. Nothing could be clearer. Retail & restaurants will need to evolve in TV just like they will in the rest of America. Since the demographic glut of baby boomers are all over 65 now, things will need to change. I’ve looked at several other places like OTOTW, Dell Webbs & Margaritavilles Ranch & others. TV remains hard to beat. Controlling taxes & fees will be critical IMO. Seniors need to be frugal & have controllable costs to have security & peace of mind TV has done a stellar job compared to others IMO.

What is OBG? ( I know I'm going to be embarrassed after you explain it to me), but anyway I see your point.
My point, which I didn't express very well, is that what we see going on in SS is change, but not necessarily "struggle".
Certainly, it would not bode well for the developer, as they build new areas down south to have older areas appearing decayed and neglected. What I was meaning to convey was that what the vision was in 1994 is not what is needed now, and that is partly due to the fact that they aren't selling neighborhoods in the near vicinity, and that a lot of what was available there in the 90s was not competing with what is now available on 441 and 466.

[Jayhawk]

Originally Posted by laker14

basically it will depend upon who spends money there.

[Glowing Horizon]

Originally Posted by asianthree

If your original post was I am still trying to make decisions on where would I best fit in TV. Instead you chose words that didn’t put northern areas desirable. Think about it do you tell your parents wow I can’t believe you bought this house and where you moved What were you thinking? No, you have respect for other people and their choices.

I can definitely say that pretty much every resident that lives in TV thinks their Village is by far better than any other area. Why because it fits for them. When you doom and gloom a certain area, with closed restaurants, yet didn’t mention the new business replacements, or the new apartments, and retail. One will get less than constructive thoughts.

Regroup ask WHY do you love your area, you will find a much better view point. This is my needs do you have that available? I love the northern area with old trees,homes with architectural pride and their build, but not a fan of all the retail. We also don’t need a hospital or doctors in our back door.
That said we are on our Fourth home, and Village and I can say, we moved each time for larger garages, and more sf, a view, with safety in walking and biking. Plus less than 3 miles to turnpike for parks and Gainesville

Great info. Not everyone would move for those reasons but one can’t help but wonder why so many do. The fact that you chose to stay in TV speaks volumes about the variety of homes available & that they all offer a similarly wonderful lifestyle that you still prefer.

[Glowing Horizon]

Originally Posted by Laker14

What is OBG? ( I know I'm going to be embarrassed after you explain it to me), but anyway I see your point.
My point, which I didn't express very well, is that what we see going on in SS is change, but not necessarily "struggle".
Certainly, it would not bode well for the developer, as they build new areas down south to have older areas appearing decayed and neglected. What I was meaning to convey was that what the vision was in 1994 is not what is needed now, and that is partly due to the fact that they aren't selling neighborhoods in the near vicinity, and that a lot of what was available there in the 90s was not competing with what is now available on 441 and 466.

Sorry. By OBG I meant Orange Blossom Gardens. The beginning of it all.

What you said about Spanish Springs is valid but the area is beautiful & lush landscaping with mature trees & a laid-back vibe that the newer areas simply cannot compete with. Many of the homes have features which would be cost-prohibitive to add now, if you could. Being close to commerce, the hospital, doctors, LSL, many golf courses & country clubs as well as major thoroughfares is also hard to beat. In lots of ways, it’s still the heart of TV. The square at SS seems like an opportunity that’s waiting to be fulfilled to me.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Couple of things:
OBG, Orange Blossom Gardens, is what The Villages was before they renamed it The Villages. It's now known as the Historic Area, the three villages on the other side of 441: Orange Blossom Garden, Country Club Hills, and Silver Lake. It's up across from Spanish Springs Town Square.

Also, there are new homes being built near Spanish Springs by the developer. Memories are short around here but there was a huge to-do, major lawsuits, fights between the town and the Developer and residents, with regards to the former Hacienda Country Club property. The new pool and walking trails and some other parts of the recreation area are already up, and they're working on the rest of it. In addition, the apartments in the building that used to be Katie Bell's aren't rented yet. It would be in the Developer's best interest to maintain or improve the current vacancy situation in the Square.

I'm not overly concerned about modernization, bringing in a "younger" set of stores. In fact I'd look forward to it. Spanish Springs has been marketed to people who were 60 in the 1980's. Any of those people who are still alive, likely don't go shopping in the the squares anymore. They need to update their retail offerings to appeal to people my age or younger (late Boomers to early GenXers), or they will completely lose touch with their revenue stream.

[Papa_lecki]

Originally Posted by Laker14

The developer that initially built it had a huge stake in making it exciting in order to sell neighborhoods. Now the motivation is simply to be a profitable entity in itself.

Sorry, but the squares were always commercial real estate, and the goal of commercial real estate is to make money.

Just as the goal of the golf courses isn’t golf, it’s water management (civil engineering).

They just both were shown to you through the eyes of marketing.

[Pairadocs]

[QUOTE=Papa_lecki;2366133]

Yes, it sucks here.
Houses are falling down, the squares are a ghosttown, no one is there.

This place has always had part time residents. You don’t think the business model is set up for that?

Yes, agree.... seems to be in it's last months doesn't it....LOL ! But seriously, do you think the person (?) posting such comments (seemingly from visiting a few times and able to describe it as a "ghost-town" ? ? ) is actually a person considering the Villages ? Personally, I think this might be a "person" much more interested in one of the many other developments that while very nice, are certainly not consistently named the top active life style community in the USA...me thinks this might just have some ulterior motive ?