[Peachie]

I think an earlier post gave a good indication... if TV remains a viable, entertaining and beautiful place to live, the children, nieces, nephews and other relatives will lap up a good portion of resales and the need for advertising may be minimal. The State of Florida, sunshine and the location of TV are all permanent and will be always be a big part of the draw. I think this is a bit like worrying what the prom will be like 10 years after one graduates from high school, lol. It won't matter! We're outta there.

[Bogie Shooter]

Don't you think the economic times will have a dramatic influnce on any build out date that is speculated on today? Three years ago it was projected to be done by 2010. At 200 new builds a month its going to take a lot longer than that.

[Peachie]

If that housing market opens up a little, Bogie, you'll see a big bubble of people wanting to move to TV and move now. There are a lot of people stuck with homes and in a holding pattern to move to "The Lifestyle".

[darylj2000]

We are one of those that are waiting for our house up north IOWA then we are coming to TV

[Just Susan]

Originally Posted by Peachie

If that housing market opens up a little, Bogie, you'll see a big bubble of people wanting to move to TV and move now. There are a lot of people stuck with homes and in a holding pattern to move to "The Lifestyle".

"ain't that the truth!!"

Originally Posted by Peachie

rekop, I think most of the people retiring are considering 10-25 years of additional living. For another community to get off the ground and evolve into what has been developed here would take more time than that. The lots in TV are very nice and I, for one, do not want to spend my hard earned money and time mowing grass for the last years of my life so I don't know how important "big lots" are to the majority of retirees. IMHO, TV will still be a beautiful place 30 years from now. Beyond that, our children can worry about it.

Many people don't seem to care about the size of the lots, but I have heard numerous commments about "why are the houses so close together?", that sort of thing. So some people do consider that. Most people I know have someone come in and do their mowing, so its not a physical issue of mowing, its more a privacy issue.

[gfmucci]

I understand "buildout" is somewhere between 2014 and 2016, depending on the economy and the rate of sales over the next few years. We are at the very beginning of the the "boomer" wave nationwide which will extend at least to 2020.

At that point in time, the "average" house in TV will be about 15 to 20 years old. The average age of the occupants will be rising as well. In the new neighborhoods the average age is proabably around 62, including full and part timers. In the older villages, the average age is well into the seventies. Yes, there is the occasional resale to younger buyers. But I would guess most buyers would rather live in neighborhoods of 60-year-olds than 80-year-olds if they have a choice. The average age of the entire community, not just the older sections, in 2020 is likely to be in the high 70s if not low 80s.

Ya gotta wonder whether retiring yuppies, and gen Xers will want to live among people that old. By then, many of the deed restrictions, including age restrictions may be expiring in the older neighborhoods, allowing younger families to move in. What do you know about the perpetualness of our present age restrictions? That would have a HUGE bearing on the future of TV. Maybe by 2030, that change (elimination of age restrictions) will be needed to maintain a market for resale here.

[JohnN]

Build-out estimate:

70,000 people now, 110,000 planned, 40,000 more people should be about 25,000 more homes. Closing on 300/month = 3,600/year

25,000 / 3,600 would be about 7 years or 2015.

Lots of things could change that, economy, builder buying more land, etc.

But it's an estimate.

[rshoffer]

Originally Posted by Don H

Does anyone know the projected date or time frame for buildout?

This is impossible to guess because the entire game has changed. It's Friday Morning, 645am, Sept 26th... wash Mutual has just failed... CNBC quote... "NO ONE IS LENDING ANYONE MONEY"... since not everyone who moves here pays cash for their home OR if they did, they got the cash from a buyer of their Northern home who LOANED the money to buy it, well..., the entire machine is gonna grind to a halt.

[Russ_Boston]

Originally Posted by gfmucci

IBy then, many of the deed restrictions, including age restrictions may be expiring in the older neighborhoods, allowing younger families to move in.

Is this a fact? Is it written somewhere that the age restrictions ever expire or is this just your opinion as to what WILL happen? I think it is a key point if it is true.

Russ

[NJblue]

Originally Posted by rshoffer

This is impossible to guess because the entire game has changed. It's Friday Morning, 645am, Sept 26th... wash Mutual has just failed... CNBC quote... "NO ONE IS LENDING ANYONE MONEY"... since not everyone who moves here pays cash for their home OR if they did, they got the cash from a buyer of their Northern home who LOANED the money to buy it, well..., the entire machine is gonna grind to a halt.

There seems to be contradictory views on the availability of mortgage money. Here is what is reported at bankrate.com:

Qualified borrowers can find conforming and FHA-insured mortgages easily. Jumbo mortgages are more scarce, but available. Rates went up in the last week, which is another way of saying that credit is tighter. But the mortgage marketplace isn't frozen, at least in part because of federal intervention.

"There's almost no difference in the availability of money compared to a year ago, with the exception of jumbos," says Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant with Palm Beach Financial Network in Stuart, Fla. "The main difference is that you have to provide documentation, such as W-2s, tax returns and bank statements. Welcome to the full-doc world."

I suspect that this view is more accurate than the view that "No one is lending money". Just look at the current mortgage rates - they average less than 6% for a 30 year mortgage. Last July they were in the high 6's. If money was that tight, one would expect the rates to be going very high rather than lower. Also, if some sort of a deal in Congress can be worked out, money should flow even more easily.

[Russ_Boston]

We shouldn't turn this thread into the current crisis thread. But the quote wasn't about the 'little' guy. It was meant that banks aren't lending to banks like they used to. They are all turning to the central bank for lending. You have to be careful when you listen to CNBC because, for the most part, they are talking about MACRO ideas and not the MICRO ideas that filter down to you and I.

[rsetterlund]

I have heard that Florida's zoning laws will change in 2012. The change is not allow cluster zoning, like TV, and require larger lots sizes. I have also heard that the developer will build all the homes they can be for the change, but limit the release of the new homes for sale.

I for one do not want a large lot. Have had these up north and not interested in that any more.

Hopefully price values will not rise rapidly. Just means higher taxes.

[Peachie]

RSetterlund: I have heard that Florida's zoning laws will change in 2012. The change is not allow cluster zoning, like TV, and require larger lots sizes."

I had heard that about the cluster zoning dateline also. And not to get too financial about purchasing a new home in TV, but if you require a mortgage you'd better have a gorgeous FICO or you won't be getting a loan, that's the lending issue.

[Coconuts]

Does the change in zoning laws mean that communities presently zoned for 55+ will then be opened up to anyone? or just that no new communities will be reserved for seniors only?