[keithwand]

Left Sawgrass last Saturday night and drove south on Megggison to 470.
So many dark homes and empty lanais on built homes.
Seems to me the Villages is sitting on a lot of unsold properties in the south area.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by keithwand

So many dark homes and empty lanais on built homes.
Seems to me the Villages is sitting on a lot of unsold properties in the south area.

Probably not a good indicator...............
Many new owners have not moved in
Many new owners are snows.
Many new owners have not purchased lanai furniture.
Many new villages go to bed at sunset.

[spinner1001]

The sky is not falling.

Compare 2023 to 2022. Focus on market prices. Year-to-date 2023 versus 2022 average home prices are similar (not crashing). Q3 2023 versus 2022 average home prices down slightly (not crashing). If the local market was indeed crashing, it would show up in prices. Everything else goes into making up prices in the market (Economics 101).

The sky is not falling.

[Altavia]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Bingo.

Poor Negative Nellies in other threads......................hoping TV is crashing, hoping the developer if failing, trying to spread their sad life.

The sales and Quaterly Reports have been substantialy consistent over time. The developer is in control of their market.

Anyone not convinced needs to take a drive down Marsh Bend Trail and 470 from Middleton to the Turnpike for evidence.

With 10,000 people retiring daily, I doubt the Villages will have any problem attracting 2-3 of those a day here. Theycontinue to pump several billion dollars of new home construction into the local economy for the foreseeable future.

The Charter School education complex and family community is a particularly brilliant and innovative move to ensure the future.

[Randall55]

Originally Posted by Altavia

The sales and Quaterly Reports have been substantialy consistent over time. The developer is in control of their market.

Anyone not convinced needs to take a drive down Marsh Bend Trail and 470 from Middleton to the Turnpike for evidence.

With 10,000 people retiring daily, I doubt the Villages will have any problem attracting 2-3 of those a day here. Theycontinue to pump several billion dollars of new home construction into the local economy for the foreseeable future.

The Charter School education complex and family community is a particularly brilliant and innovative move to ensure the future.

I guess you missed the post about someone who did a drive-by. He saw quite a bit of empty lanais. But, that doesn't mean the sales will continue to fall. This may just be a slight adjustment. Sales will vary from month to month. That is normal.

[DrMack]

Originally Posted by keithwand

Left Sawgrass last Saturday night and drove south on Megggison to 470.
So many dark homes and empty lanais on built homes.
Seems to me the Villages is sitting on a lot of unsold properties in the south area.

That bothers us little. We will be living even more towards 470 when our house is complete. You are correct in many empty houses though, we said the same thing last week after visiting our build site. The same houses along Meggison are empty and have been done for more than a month since the last visit. They are still dark and unoccupied. We of course checked the sales site and it reflects the same.

I wouldn’t put a whole lot into a pamphlet released by the Marketing Department of TV. Who is the publisher after all, The Villages Sun? I also wouldn’t put a whole lot into an argument the market is crashing either.

We bought to enjoy our retirement. We aren’t investing.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by DrMack

We bought to enjoy our retirement. We aren’t investing.

[Randall55]

Originally Posted by DrMack

That bothers us little. We will be living even more towards 470 when our house is complete. You are correct in many empty houses though, we said the same thing last week after visiting our build site. The same houses along Meggison and have been done for more than a month are still dark.

I wouldn’t put a whole lot into a pamphlet released by the Marketing Department of TV. Who is the publisher after all, The Villages Sun? I also wouldn’t put a whole lot into an argument the market is crashing either.

We bought to enjoy our retirement. We aren’t investing.

Just like you and a few posters have stated, do not be swayed by a sales report. Things change! No one on this thread has stated the market has crashed. Some gave examples of how it could and others are using their drive bys as cause for concern. Enjoy your retirement and don't worry about numbers.

[SteveCanada]

thanks to all who comment .. lots to learn

[Markus]

Originally Posted by margaretmattson

I have been in sales all my life. It does matter! Most obvious: A Q3 report does not mean the Q4 (and those following) will bring in the same numbers. I read posts and I believe someone stated an average of 350 homes were sold each month. Altavia told someone on another thread, 50 homes were scheduled to close in one week in October. That is a significant drop from the 85(+ or - )homes sold in a week in prior months.

If all the below average price homes are in the same area (my guess would be homes farthest north) that could possibly mean a crash is beginning in that area. In time, that crash could affect the entire Villages.

If, for example,15% of homes were bought by residents relocating to another Village and 15% were bought for investments, that means over 100 homes per month sold were not new residents. A crash can happen if new buyers are no longer interested in purchasing in the Villages.

If there are a quite a bit of corporate investors buying up a chunk of homes on speculation, this too, could possibly cause a crash.

I could go on.....

If I gave a quarterly sales report to a bank requesting a business loan, they would laugh at me and ask for more information. GUARANTEED. If I wanted to add a partner, they too would ask for more information. One sales report does not give the overall picture.

I have no need to call mgmt. I do not have all of my eggs in one basket and I certainly am not charmed into believing ONLY what a quarterly sales report shows. I was here in the crash of 2008. Were you? I know what actually happened and no one is going to convince me otherwise.

BUT.... if you look at MLS sales in The Villages sales are also holding steady as well. In talking with a realtor investor sales have slowed down. Reason is if they have to take out a loan now with higher interest rates the math no longer works.

[Aces4]

Originally Posted by Markus

BUT.... if you look at MLS sales in The Villages sales are also holding steady as well. In talking with a realtor investor sales have slowed down. Reason is if they have to take out a loan now with higher interest rates the math no longer works.

I would be surprised if there was a big slowdown now, the experts predict the big housing market hit won't be until mid-next year.

Yes, there was a downturn in prices in 2008 in The Villages. Why would anybody here care, though, if they own their home. We're all on our way out soon, so live and enjoy. You can't take money with you. That said, anyone buying Villages property as an investment is in my mind, nuts!

[Pat2015]

A lot of sales here are cash sales thus interest rates aren’t as significant a factor as in other markets.

[Pat2015]

Originally Posted by keithwand

Left Sawgrass last Saturday night and drove south on Megggison to 470.
So many dark homes and empty lanais on built homes.
Seems to me the Villages is sitting on a lot of unsold properties in the south area.

According to the sales report new homes are only sitting about a month. A lot of homes that are finished have not yet been released. New home sales are exceeding preowned inventories and new sales are going well down south.

[DrMack]

Originally Posted by Aces4

I would be surprised if there was a big slowdown now, the experts predict the big housing market hit won't be until mid-next year.

Yes, there was a downturn in prices in 2008 in The Villages. Why would anybody here care, though, if they own their home. We're all on our way out soon, so live and enjoy. You can't take money with you. That said, anyone buying Villages property as an investment is in my mind, nuts!

I saw another post and the prices were going down. I think this matters more to the investors though. Obviously the dynamic is changing for a rough ride, but how many years does a retired person have to live the dream?

The entire economy plays a role in moving here of course. We have taken notice that more than a few retired people have had to resort to returning to the workforce working as realtors, in recreation centers or whatever. Those investment accounts that were lucrative are drying up for many and moving to TV may no more be an option. Places like Top of the World and others may be more affordable. Then you have interest rates and for sure inflation causing the mess.

Again though, you only live so long. An increasing decision problem has made some house poor.

[GoRedSox!]

The two greatest forces in free markets are supply and demand.

Focusing on the demand part of that equation, we have to look at the demographics of the country. 10,000 people turn 65 every day. The percentage of people who will be senior citizens continues to increase and will for many years to come. Millions and millions more retirees are on the way in the years to come. The demand side of this equation is going to be here for the premiere 55+ community in the country.

I don't think there is going to be any significant slowdown in the future. Unless there is another 2008 Great Recession, but that is unlikely.