[perrjojo]

And if we knew the answer it would not change the result st this point. Btw, flat land can flood when the ground is saturated.

[Villageswimmer]

Originally Posted by maybe

I called the "public safety" number today, and got referred to another office and then another. No one knew the answer. The last said she will ask a supervisor to call me back, hopefully by "tomorrow"!
I was repeatedly told that TV is working hard to lower the ponds as fast as they can, but no one could say that that will prevent flooding. Could it be that no one in authority has done the math, and no one knows what amount of rain will cause houses to flood?

Not to be flippant but if someone gave you a number, what would you do with this information?

[Bogie Shooter]

Originally Posted by spring_chicken

Good grief, NOBODY can promise you that that will prevent flooding. What do you want, a written guarantee? Why keep pestering these people with useless questions while they are frantically trying to get The Villages hunkered down and safe?

Finally someone answered this silly question. I agree.
Do you think they will leave if they get the wrong answer?

[DianeM]

I thought it - you said it. Way too many variables to answer a ridiculous question. Did you have that type of information where you used to live?

[Polar Bear]

FWIW...

Most storm systems in Florida are designed to handle storms of nine inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period, called a 25 year design storm, in a routine and simple manner with little impact. They're also designed to handle storms of twelve inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period, called a 100 year design storm, in such a manner as to avoid a major disaster. Irma will drop much, MUCH more rain than that on many areas in a much shorter amount of time. So with respect to the drainage system...which includes streets, pipes, inlets, ponds, surface areas, everything...all bets are off. It's simply impossible to design for such an event. This is when emergency preparedness kicks in.

Your question, op, cannot be answered in as precise a way as you likely wish. Even the design storms listed above are approximations and based upon historic records. I can tell you from experience that a 25 year storm occurs much more frequently than once every 25 years. Same for the 100 year storm. That's simply the names they've had given to them over the years and they've stuck, giving some sense of magnitude even though the names are not particularly accurate.

Bottom line...12" of rain in 24 hours is about the maximum any normal drainage system is designed to handle. Irma will laugh at such numbers. But with adequate preparation, we can all still stay safe even as the drainage systems are overloaded for a period.

Polar Bear, P.E.

[maybe]

I have not asked for a guarantee, just info on what amount of rain the pond was designed to accept before flooding begins. It is not merely an academic matter. If the answer is 5 more inches of rain, and the prediction tomorrow is of 8 to 10 inches coming, then don't you think it would make sense to plan for the flooding by doing such things as moving your car from your garage to higher ground? And if the answer is it would require 12 to 14 inches of additional rain to flood your street, would not it make sense to then keep your car in the garage if only 8 to 10 inches are predicted?

[maybe]

Originally Posted by Polar Bear

FWIW...

Most storm systems in Florida are designed to handle storms of nine inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period, called a 25 year design storm, in a routine and simple manner with little impact. They're also designed to handle storms of twelve inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period, called a 100 year design storm, in such a manner as to avoid a major disaster. Irma will drop much, MUCH more rain than that on many areas in a much shorter amount of time. So with respect to the drainage system...which includes streets, pipes, inlets, ponds, surface areas, everything...all bets are off. It's simply impossible to design for such an event. This is when emergency preparedness kicks in.

Your question, op, cannot be answered in as precise a way as you likely wish. Even the design storms listed above are approximations and based upon historic records. I can tell you from experience that a 25 year storm occurs much more frequently than once every 25 years. Same for the 100 year storm. That's simply the names they've had given to them over the years and they've stuck, giving some sense of magnitude even though the names are not particularly accurate.

Bottom line...12" of rain in 24 hours is about the maximum any normal drainage system is designed to handle. Irma will laugh at such numbers. But with adequate preparation, we can all still stay safe even as the drainage systems are overloaded for a period.

Polar Bear, P.E.

Thank you very much for the relevant and informative post!

[gomsiepop]

I wish I had the same crystal ball that several responders have claimed the amount of rain that Irma will dump in our area. If they have the numbers for Saturday's lottery I will personally fund the amount and I promise I will split the proceeds. I have more respect for the media who are trying to update Floridians on what to expect in the next few days.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by Polar Bear

FWIW...

Most storm systems in Florida are designed to handle storms of nine inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period, called a 25 year design storm, in a routine and simple manner with little impact. They're also designed to handle storms of twelve inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period, called a 100 year design storm, in such a manner as to avoid a major disaster. Irma will drop much, MUCH more rain than that on many areas in a much shorter amount of time. So with respect to the drainage system...which includes streets, pipes, inlets, ponds, surface areas, everything...all bets are off. It's simply impossible to design for such an event. This is when emergency preparedness kicks in.

Your question, op, cannot be answered in as precise a way as you likely wish. Even the design storms listed above are approximations and based upon historic records. I can tell you from experience that a 25 year storm occurs much more frequently than once every 25 years. Same for the 100 year storm. That's simply the names they've had given to them over the years and they've stuck, giving some sense of magnitude even though the names are not particularly accurate.

Bottom line...12" of rain in 24 hours is about the maximum any normal drainage system is designed to handle. Irma will laugh at such numbers. But with adequate preparation, we can all still stay safe even as the drainage systems are overloaded for a period.

Polar Bear, P.E.

Thanks Bear!!

[Villageswimmer]

Originally Posted by maybe

I have not asked for a guarantee, just info on what amount of rain the pond was designed to accept before flooding begins. It is not merely an academic matter. If the answer is 5 more inches of rain, and the prediction tomorrow is of 8 to 10 inches coming, then don't you think it would make sense to plan for the flooding by doing such things as moving your car from your garage to higher ground? And if the answer is it would require 12 to 14 inches of additional rain to flood your street, would not it make sense to then keep your car in the garage if only 8 to 10 inches are predicted?

Simply put, even if you know the exact amount of rain the storm sewers are designed to take, there are other factors that come into play. For example, localized flooding occurred in TV a few years ago in a low lying area.

The flooding probably shouldn't have occurred based on rainfall, but did due to debris, largely landscape pine straw, that clogged the drains.

You can't predict this. You can't control something that's uncontrollable. Further, you can't put faith in predicted rainfall amounts to base critical decisions upon. These predictions are merely guidelines and usually change frequently during a storm and can vary significantly within the isohyets. There are many variables and anomalies within a given storm. I was involved with a flood once caused by backwater from a beaver dam. No one knew it existed. I digress, but you get the point.

In your case, you might feel best if you base your decisions on a worst case scenario. That said, where in TV would you move your vehicle to "higher ground?" Do you think it's better sitting out unprotected with things flying around in the wind rather than in your garage?

That's a decision only you can make. There simply is no magic number. Nor is there a flood history of any reliability in TV. This land was agricultural before very recent residential development.

I hope this helps. Namaste.

[JoMar]

Originally Posted by maybe

I have not asked for a guarantee, just info on what amount of rain the pond was designed to accept before flooding begins. It is not merely an academic matter. If the answer is 5 more inches of rain, and the prediction tomorrow is of 8 to 10 inches coming, then don't you think it would make sense to plan for the flooding by doing such things as moving your car from your garage to higher ground? And if the answer is it would require 12 to 14 inches of additional rain to flood your street, would not it make sense to then keep your car in the garage if only 8 to 10 inches are predicted?

Prepare for the worse.....the current estimate is 8". tomorrow it could be 18" Nobody knows and there are too many variables....plan for the 18" and if there is 8" you can smile, plan for 8" and if 18" shows up what the heck are you going to do.

[maybe]

Originally Posted by Villageswimmer

Simply put, even if you know the exact amount of rain the storm sewers are designed to take, there are other factors that come into play. For example, localized flooding occurred in TV a few years ago in a low lying area.

The flooding probably shouldn't have occurred based on rainfall, but did due to debris, largely landscape pine straw, that clogged the drains.

You can't predict this. You can't control something that's uncontrollable. Further, you can't put faith in predicted rainfall amounts to base critical decisions upon. These predictions are merely guidelines and usually change frequently during a storm and can vary significantly within the isohyets. There are many variables and anomalies within a given storm. I was involved with a flood once caused by backwater from a beaver dam. No one knew it existed. I digress, but you get the point.

In your case, you might feel best if you base your decisions on a worst case scenario. That said, where in TV would you move your vehicle to "higher ground?" Do you think it's better sitting out unprotected with things flying around in the wind rather than in your garage?

That's a decision only you can make. There simply is no magic number. Nor is there a flood history of any reliability in TV. This land was agricultural before very recent residential development.

I hope this helps. Namaste.

Thanks for your post. Yes, I'd rather have my car get damaged from flying debris than get flooded, and totally ruined, in my garage. It is a matter of playing the odds, and the more info I have, the better I know the odds and how to play them. Rain amount predictions are not perfect, but they are much better than nothing.

[Paper1]

Originally Posted by maybe

I have not asked for a guarantee, just info on what amount of rain the pond was designed to accept before flooding begins. It is not merely an academic matter. If the answer is 5 more inches of rain, and the prediction tomorrow is of 8 to 10 inches coming, then don't you think it would make sense to plan for the flooding by doing such things as moving your car from your garage to higher ground? And if the answer is it would require 12 to 14 inches of additional rain to flood your street, would not it make sense to then keep your car in the garage if only 8 to 10 inches are predicted?

Your question is fair, ignore the comments that attempt to ridicule you for asking. I was kind of curious myself if the Villages had a detailed elevation map but will not put request out on forum. Good luck in the coming few days.

[Bogie Shooter]

Originally Posted by Paper1

Your question is fair, ignore the comments that attempt to ridicule you for asking. I was kind of curious myself if the Villages had a detailed elevation map but will not put request out on forum. Good luck in the coming few days.

Elevation of The Villages,US Elevation Map, Topography, Contour

https://www.distancesto.com/route-el...ory/28903.html

[Sgroemm]

As I teach my second graders, "there are no dumb questions, if it is on your mind, ask away"; perhaps we can alleviate your fear, share some knowledge, confirm your belief, or just offer some guidance.