Will TV home prices increase dramatically after buildout is complete?

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  #16  
Old 04-25-2011, 07:44 PM
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Originally Posted by memason View Post
If I were a developer, why would I stop building at the beginning of the baby boomer generation retiring? Seems to me, I would be buying up all the adjoining land I could find for future development.

No way would I stop at 44, unless I could not buy more land to develop...

Just my thinking.....
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  #17  
Old 04-25-2011, 07:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Shimpy View Post
After build out, will TV be as desirable as it is now? I hope so. I hope it will remain as manicured and clean as we are used to. I hope we have entertainment on all the squares and all the activities offered. Once there are no more new homes to sell maybe the incentives they provided to make us want to buy will go away. If everything remains the same, then there will be less supply, no more new homes, and the demand will be the same, so I would think the price should go up. JMHO
I think the key is what happens after the developer is no longer in full control. As much as we all love the lifestyle, I don't believe the residents would choose to spend the money that's now being spent on what makes TV great.
We've all seen people cheap out on a tip in a restaurant or use a calculator to divide a dinner check. I'm doubtful that these same people would choose to pay for the magnificent flowers and landscaping that most of us love.
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  #18  
Old 04-25-2011, 09:44 PM
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I believe with the cost of fuel this may be the best place to live, being so golf cart friendly. Access to stores and medical facilities is a big plus. The best possible thing they should do now is connect the neighboring cities with cart access and property here would be a Bonanza. I know a lot would dislike this but even an airport nearby. So close to being a MEGA CITY now .
  #19  
Old 04-25-2011, 10:03 PM
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Originally Posted by bluedog103 View Post
I think the key is what happens after the developer is no longer in full control. As much as we all love the lifestyle, I don't believe the residents would choose to spend the money that's now being spent on what makes TV great.
We've all seen people cheap out on a tip in a restaurant or use a calculator to divide a dinner check. I'm doubtful that these same people would choose to pay for the magnificent flowers and landscaping that most of us love.
The magnificent flowers and landscaping are all paid for by the residents now. It is on your tax bill.
  #20  
Old 04-26-2011, 07:29 AM
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Originally Posted by memason View Post
If I were a developer, why would I stop building at the beginning of the baby boomer generation retiring? Seems to me, I would be buying up all the adjoining land I could find for future development.

No way would I stop at 44, unless I could not buy more land to develop...

Just my thinking.....
I totally agree. There are some pieces of land nearby that seem to be "holdouts" - they may become part of TV at some point. Also, folks who have lived here awhile have told us that the total buildout has increased several times in the past.

If this does not happen, I think (putting on my Finance hat for a minute and JMO) that we will see some price increases. As baby boomers age, more and more will want to move to warm-weather locations. I also expect that there will be some "flips" in the historical section. However, I think our gains will be steady and sustainable - mainly because no more than 20% can be owned by persons less than 55 years old.

k
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  #21  
Old 04-26-2011, 10:12 AM
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In my humble opinion.
LOL, then there is the alternate IMNSHO, In My NOT so humble Opinion.
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  #22  
Old 04-26-2011, 10:51 AM
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As the resale homes in TV are very inflated compared to other areas of Florida, as to price because they are riding on the proposed prices of the new homes, once TV goes into buildout, I would think the prices would revert to closer what they are in other areas of Florida at that time.

Case in point, a house the size of mine (1780 square feet), without a pool, sells for 239-259 in the Villages, and in the Tampa area, with a nice pool, large birdcage and spa, that same square footage, because of the foreclosures and they way property is being appraised using those foreclosures as comparables, estimated value to sell is $160,000. Not really a reason for that difference. You buy the lifestyle by paying your amenities fee every month, taxes and bond payments for building those amenities, it shouldn't effect the price of the house as well. I think when you go to all resale, you will see a downturn. I could be wrong, we will see . . . Hopefully in four years prices will be better all around. I have been told by to expect at least four years to bring the market back to 1/2 of what it normally would be.

Richard and Lee in Tampa, for now.
  #23  
Old 04-26-2011, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by 73Goat View Post
LOL, then there is the alternate IMNSHO, In My NOT so humble Opinion.
IMNSHO, IMNSHO will not be widely used!
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  #24  
Old 04-26-2011, 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by kofficer View Post
As the resale homes in TV are very inflated compared to other areas of Florida, as to price because they are riding on the proposed prices of the new homes, once TV goes into buildout, I would think the prices would revert to closer what they are in other areas of Florida at that time.

Case in point, a house the size of mine (1780 square feet), without a pool, sells for 239-259 in the Villages, and in the Tampa area, with a nice pool, large birdcage and spa, that same square footage, because of the foreclosures and they way property is being appraised using those foreclosures as comparables, estimated value to sell is $160,000. Not really a reason for that difference. You buy the lifestyle by paying your amenities fee every month, taxes and bond payments for building those amenities, it shouldn't effect the price of the house as well. I think when you go to all resale, you will see a downturn. I could be wrong, we will see . . . Hopefully in four years prices will be better all around. I have been told by to expect at least four years to bring the market back to 1/2 of what it normally would be.

Richard and Lee in Tampa, for now.
Part of the cost difference still is you are paying for the lifestyle. It has been that way all along....when the demand is there the price is higher.

BTW the main reason for the final buildout to have been extended is due to the economy. The number of new houses being sold is less than half of what it was 3-5 years ago. No additional land has been purchased by the developer during this time period, (at least that is what has been reported on TOTV in the past).
  #25  
Old 04-26-2011, 11:46 AM
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It is still a function of supply and demand. Yes people pay for the maintenance of the life style with the amenity fee. They buy into the life style when they buy a home. So far the demand for that life style has created a market that can support higher then normal Florida home prices. The new homes do not cause home prices to be higher. It is The Villages life style that is the root cause for that. If it was just new homes, why are new homes in the other Florida locations not higher then resale? As long as people like this way of living the price premium will continue regardless of new or resale.
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  #26  
Old 04-26-2011, 12:08 PM
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Originally Posted by l2ridehd View Post
If you look at how The Villages has evolved it may give a hint as to what prices will do. When they first got going in earnest, they were selling around 400 new homes a month and about 75 resale homes each month. Right now it is 250 a month new and 150 a month resale. Now market dynamics has something to do with the changes, but as they get close to build out, the number of new units will drop until eventually it is zero and the resale units will rise until that is probably in the 400 a month range. People who have to have new will go elsewhere and people who have to have TV will buy resale. I would expect when build out is complete that demand will exceed supply by some amount, (more boomers retiring) so prices will increase. But probably not a lot. I would be more concerned about what inflation and interest rate impact will be then the build out.
As a 20 year veteran real estate appraiser I would listen to l2ride. He knows what he's taking about.
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  #27  
Old 04-26-2011, 12:39 PM
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As others have stated, it is a supply and demand situation:

If there are x number of homes in a concentrated area of a particular part of FL where there are "currently normal" numbers of foreclosure, short sales, etc. and demand for all the homes is low, the prices will reflect that scenario. On the other hand, mirror that same thing with lower-than-standard numbers of foreclosures and short sales and throw in high demand (regardless of the reasons for the high demand), prices will be higher. So far in TV, the demand is generally ahead of the supply.

Bill
  #28  
Old 04-26-2011, 12:56 PM
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One big factor after the build out will be what will happen to the amenity fee. Since, the developer is not making $$$$ on new homes will he look for a higher return in owned assets in TV increasing costs to the residents. This will affect the supply and demand for homes. Paying more for the lifestyle in fees will reduce property values. If fees remain constant the premium for lifestyle will continue to be in the property value. What will be will be so I will continue to enjoy the lifestyle in TV and all it has to offer.
  #29  
Old 04-26-2011, 12:57 PM
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Originally Posted by l2ridehd View Post
It is still a function of supply and demand. Yes people pay for the maintenance of the life style with the amenity fee. They buy into the life style when they buy a home. So far the demand for that life style has created a market that can support higher then normal Florida home prices. The new homes do not cause home prices to be higher. It is The Villages life style that is the root cause for that. If it was just new homes, why are new homes in the other Florida locations not higher then resale? As long as people like this way of living the price premium will continue regardless of new or resale.
Absolutely!
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  #30  
Old 04-26-2011, 12:58 PM
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One big factor after the build out will be what will happen to the amenity fee. Since, the developer is not making $$$$ on new homes will he look for a higher return in owned assets in TV increasing costs to the residents. This will affect the supply and demand for homes. Paying more for the lifestyle in fees will reduce property values. If fees remain constant the premium for lifestyle will continue to be in the property value. What will be will be so I will continue to enjoy the lifestyle in TV and all it has to offer.
Is they amenity fee not paid to the district?
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