[tkret]

Wish it wasn't true, but wishing is different than REALITY. Two months ago I sold my home in the Phoenix area. I got a lot less than I thought I would get, but after 22 months on the market I was delighted to unload it at a profit in order to prepare me for my relocation to The Villages. In another year from now I may see that I actually did pretty good on the sale. There are just too many homeowners/home sellers who are being unrealistic and will keep lowering the price too late. They'll follow the market down and will find out that they could have gotten out many months earlier IF they had priced to market conditions.

If you've got the stomach for it, read this informative take on the market by Business Week's Peter Coy:

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...0040767516.htm

[Alex]

Excellent article. I am glad I don't have a house or villa to sell!!

[l2ridehd]

This article is 8 months old and a lot of things have changed in that time. *New home starts and building permits were at the lowest levels in July since the early 90's. *Available supply has dropped from 14 months to 11 months. *Still needs to go lower, but a significant move. *With building slowed and supply dropping, we have reached the bottom. *Buyers, even what few there are will cause the supply to drop more over the next 6 months. *Supply will be slow to drop as we are still having some foreclosures and pent up seller homes to deal with. *Not sure how long we will remain flat, but I for one am moving from cash and stocks to real estate. *Over the next 6 months I will move into RE at least 35% - 50% of assets. *Still watching and moving slow, but am moving in that direction. *Buy low sell high and now is the time to be buying real estate. *The next wave of rich folks will buy housing now. *

[Alex]

Ok I can see buying it now. People who bought in 2004 or 2005 etc. when homes were high and are trying to sell now are the ones who will get hurt.

[The Great Fumar]

Fox Business News reported existing homes sales were up 5.3% about 10 days ago..........They say the bottom has turned..........along with a few stomachs...........

fumar

[l2ridehd]

Unfortunely that is true. I can't change that. Just as people who bought stocks when the DOW was at 14,000 get hurt if they have to sell now. But buying now is the right thing to do as an investor.

Another indicator right in TV. For over a year I have been tracking the resale market there very close. One measure I use is the total number of resales and the number pending. You can get both very quickly on the Villages web site. This only shows VLS homes but I am just using it as an indicator. The total numer on the market of VLS listings has been running around 415 to as high as 450. The number pending has been as low as 20 and average around 40. In the last month it has dropped as low as 390 on the market and as high as 80 pending. Today 393 on the market, 78 pending. TV resale market is moving as well. And I don't think TV has stopped building new like the rest of the country. I would project Villiages prices will start to rise within 90 days.

[graciegirl]

This mornings front page headline in THE CINCINNATI INQUIRER was "MORTGAGE CRISIS HITS NEW DEPTH. One homeowner in 11 behind in payments or in foreclosure" (Saturday September 6, '08)

Not good. Not good at all.

[tkret]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

This mornings front page headline in THE CINCINNATI INQUIRER was "MORTGAGE CRISIS HITS NEW DEPTH. One homeowner in 11 behind in payments or in foreclosure" (Saturday September 6, '08)

Not good. Not good at all.

Yes, graciegirl, not good. As more homes go into foreclosure that just adds to the inventory and we all know that when a merchant has too much inventory on his/her shelf that merchant must reduce prices to move the inventory out the door. The crisis is now moving into PRIME mortgage holders. There will be a bottom eventually but, when people sell their homes elsewhere for less than they thought they would receive, they'll be looking to buy in TV for less than they thought they would have paid originally. The reductions in a place like TV may be less on a percentage basis than many other places but the reduced prices will be necessary.

Check out Bloomberg's story:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...UpI&refer=home

[l2ridehd]

When everyone is selling, prices are falling, nobody wants to own it, that's the time to be buying. Stocks, homes, oil, applies to most every item people use. Now is the time to buy. When everyone is preaching dooms day for ANY market, smart people are buying. History will prove to repeat itself again. Prices will increase. And the more people saying how bad it is, the closer we are to an improving market. Again I will presict that prices in the Villages will increase within 90 days and general US market within 6 to 9 months. Probably closer to 6.

[tkret]

Smart people were buying the financial stocks, too. Bank of America purchased Countrywide, Wachovia paid 25 billion (that's billion) for Golden West at the height of the market. Are you willing to catch a falling knife? I'm not. There are plenty of buyers out there who would rather miss out on the first 1 to 5 percent upswing when the market turns around than to watch prices fall without knowing how far. Yes, there will be a bottom and TV will do just fine. But, the question isn't buying in TV; the question is selling homes elsewhere in order to bring in the buyers.

[l2ridehd]

The first 1 to 5% has already happened. You just can't see it yet. But look at things like incentives and cost of materials and it has happened. And all those examples of dumb buys, were buying at the height of a stock price, not the bottom. Just watch and see what happens and let me know in 6 months what you think.

[Alex]

What do you think of our taxes now going to bail out Fannie and Freddie?

[l2ridehd]

Our wonderful liberal congress at work again. Bails out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, adds new taxes to everyone, eliminate some home gain deducations and is probably just a hint of whats to come if more control to liberals is given to congress. Can only hope for a veto as this type legisation could delay the housing recover vs help it.

[tkret]

Barry Ritholtz, CEO and Director for Equity Research for Fusion IQ, an independent quant research firm, has his viewpoint of this. And, by the way, he refers to Frannie and Freddie as Phony and Fraudy..... Mr. Ritholtz says:


"I suspect this will be another hugely expensive and ultimately unsuccessful attempt to bailout our prior irresponsible profligacy. Ultimately, we pay for this through 1) the massive printing of more dollars; 2) some corresponding form of hyper inflation; and 3) the kindness of not strangers but our overseas overlords.

That's right -- we have no money for rebuilding our infrastructure, for any form of National Heath Care, for fixing/saving social security, but a bunch of rogue traders and Alan Greenspan, under the guise of "Deregulation" can leverage up and lose trillions, which you the taxpayer is on the hook for!"

[TallerTrees]

Tekret:

Mr. Rithholz is exactly correct re Fannie and Freddie, or as he so aptly puts it -- Phony and Fraudy.

Members of the Senate/Congress et al have their hands in this (DEEP) and they are simply bailing out a fraudulent business. The whole conception of Fannie and Freddie is based on big government entitlement. So when has the government run anything successfully? So why do we want to put more into their hands like Healthcare, etc.!

I am NOT for redistribution of wealth. Period. There are plenty of socialist countries folks can move to if they believe that they need their every need supported by the government, including forfeiture of their liberties. I'm not one of them.

I'd better stop before this gets dumped into Political. My apologies in advance.