[PugMom]

Originally Posted by xNYer

Sweden is anticipated to have 10584 deaths by August 14 with a population of only 10 million. The US is 33 times larger which would then have approximately 349000 using their model.
I wouldn’t call that a success.

that may be, but what computer model is it based on?

[chet2020]

Originally Posted by devorejh

What a ridiculous reply to put forth such a stupid model which like all the others will be wrong. Currently Sweden has 2200 deaths in a country of 10.23 million people. That’s a mortality rate of only .0002 of 1%. I prefer to deal with facts rather than doom and gloom unfounded predictions as you do.

So your "death rate" is based on current deaths (there will be more) divided by total population (not all have been exposed), and then you get the wrong answer anyway. Keep up the good work, there's a job waiting for you in Washington.

[Bucco]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Absolutely NY's own fault. Florida has more people and we are not even close to their cluster. Yes, different density, but they could have acted sooner if they wanted to.

What did DC prevent NY from doing??

I sure was not there but this is the detail we have and NOBODY has denied its truth.
__________________________________________________

"Dec. 31: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention learn of a cluster of cases in China.

Jan. 1: The CDC begins developing reports for the Department of Health and Human Services about the situation.

Jan. 3: A Chinese official officially informs CDC Director Robert Redfield of the outbreak of a respiratory illness in the city of Wuhan. Redfield later relays the information to HHS Secretary Alex Azar, and Azar informs the White House National Security Council.

Early January: Intelligence officials begin offering ominous, classified warnings about the virus to Trump in the President’s Daily Brief. The warnings will persist into February.

Early January: In a report to the director of National Intelligence, a State Department epidemiologist warns that the virus is likely to spread across the globe and could result in a pandemic, and the Defense Intelligence Agency’s National Center for Medical Intelligence comes to the same conclusion, per the New York Times.

Jan. 8: The CDC issues its first public warning about the outbreak in China, saying that it is monitoring the situation and that people should take precautions when traveling to Wuhan.

Mid-January: Assistant HHS Secretary for Preparedness and Response Robert Kadlec instructs subordinates to make contingency plans for using the Defense Production Act, which allows the federal government to compel the production of certain materials in a crisis.

Jan. 17: The CDC begins monitoring major airports for passengers arriving from China.

Jan. 18: Azar, who had been trying to speak to Trump about the virus, is finally able to meet with him. Before Azar can begin talking about the virus, though, Trump interjects to ask him about a federal crackdown on vaping.

Jan. 20: Chinese President Xi Jinping says the virus “must be taken seriously,” and Chinese officials confirm the virus can be transmitted via human-to-human contact."


Jan. 21: The first case of the coronavirus is confirmed in the United States, in Seattle.

Jan. 22: Trump makes his first comments about the coronavirus, saying he is not concerned about a pandemic: “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control. … It’s going to be just fine.”

Jan. 23: Chinese officials take the drastic step of shutting down Wuhan. “That was like, whoa,” a senior U.S. official involved in White House meetings later told The Post. “That was when the Richter scale hit 8.”

Jan. 24: A study published by the Lancet suggests the virus may be carried by people without symptoms.

Jan. 26: Chinese health officials say the virus is infectious before symptoms show. “From observations, the virus is capable of transmission even during incubation period,” China Health Minister Ma Xiaowei says. “There are hidden carriers.”

Jan. 27: Concerned White House aides meet with then-acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney to get senior officials to pay more attention to the issue. Joe Grogan, the head of the White House Domestic Policy Council, argues it could cost Trump his reelection and says the virus is likely to dominate life in the United States for many months.
"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...ingly-damning/

Can be dismissed as "fake news" or taken seriously and looked into.
_______________________________________
In addition, the "embed" from the CDC, actually in China acting as the liason between the two countries was told her position was to be defunded and thus left China to come home. Potentially she could have given us a heads up, which was one of the primary reasons for her position.

This was FIVE months before the first case in China.

Her name was Dr. Linda Quick, an epidemiologist. Quick led a program that trained Chinese epidemiologists in methods for discovering, tracking, researching, and containing diseases — like Covid-19.

Again, the only time this was addressed to my knowledge was during a press conference and this was the exchange...on video and in total context.

Twitter

Who knows but questions that need answered

[Jazzman]

Originally Posted by Joelack99

Yes. Virus spread and ICU capacity as modeled by Johns Hopkins. I’m betting my life their model is correct, and so will continue to isolate. What science are you using to predict you are safe?

And yes, the truth will come out in time.
Speaking of time, the same thing happened 100 years ago when people, misled by their government at war, stopped. The virus mutated and the bulk of 50 Million worldwide deaths occurred. This could happen again. No one knows. The Spanish Influenza Pandemic: a lesson from history 100 years after 1918

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.“

Since I look at the JH site everyday maybe you could post the link where you state you see the projected trend in Georgia.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by Bucco

I sure was not there but this is the detail we have and NOBODY has denied its truth.
__________________________________________________

"Dec. 31: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention learn of a cluster of cases in China.

Jan. 1: The CDC begins developing reports for the Department of Health and Human Services about the situation.

Jan. 3: A Chinese official officially informs CDC Director Robert Redfield of the outbreak of a respiratory illness in the city of Wuhan. Redfield later relays the information to HHS Secretary Alex Azar, and Azar informs the White House National Security Council.

Early January: Intelligence officials begin offering ominous, classified warnings about the virus to Trump in the President’s Daily Brief. The warnings will persist into February.

Early January: In a report to the director of National Intelligence, a State Department epidemiologist warns that the virus is likely to spread across the globe and could result in a pandemic, and the Defense Intelligence Agency’s National Center for Medical Intelligence comes to the same conclusion, per the New York Times.

Jan. 8: The CDC issues its first public warning about the outbreak in China, saying that it is monitoring the situation and that people should take precautions when traveling to Wuhan.

Mid-January: Assistant HHS Secretary for Preparedness and Response Robert Kadlec instructs subordinates to make contingency plans for using the Defense Production Act, which allows the federal government to compel the production of certain materials in a crisis.

Jan. 17: The CDC begins monitoring major airports for passengers arriving from China.

Jan. 18: Azar, who had been trying to speak to Trump about the virus, is finally able to meet with him. Before Azar can begin talking about the virus, though, Trump interjects to ask him about a federal crackdown on vaping.

Jan. 20: Chinese President Xi Jinping says the virus “must be taken seriously,” and Chinese officials confirm the virus can be transmitted via human-to-human contact."


Jan. 21: The first case of the coronavirus is confirmed in the United States, in Seattle.

Jan. 22: Trump makes his first comments about the coronavirus, saying he is not concerned about a pandemic: “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control. … It’s going to be just fine.”

Jan. 23: Chinese officials take the drastic step of shutting down Wuhan. “That was like, whoa,” a senior U.S. official involved in White House meetings later told The Post. “That was when the Richter scale hit 8.”

Jan. 24: A study published by the Lancet suggests the virus may be carried by people without symptoms.

Jan. 26: Chinese health officials say the virus is infectious before symptoms show. “From observations, the virus is capable of transmission even during incubation period,” China Health Minister Ma Xiaowei says. “There are hidden carriers.”

Jan. 27: Concerned White House aides meet with then-acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney to get senior officials to pay more attention to the issue. Joe Grogan, the head of the White House Domestic Policy Council, argues it could cost Trump his reelection and says the virus is likely to dominate life in the United States for many months.
"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...ingly-damning/

Can be dismissed as "fake news" or taken seriously and looked into.
_______________________________________
In addition, the "embed" from the CDC, actually in China acting as the liason between the two countries was told her position was to be defunded and thus left China to come home. Potentially she could have given us a heads up, which was one of the primary reasons for her position.

This was FIVE months before the first case in China.

Her name was Dr. Linda Quick, an epidemiologist. Quick led a program that trained Chinese epidemiologists in methods for discovering, tracking, researching, and containing diseases — like Covid-19.

Again, the only time this was addressed to my knowledge was during a press conference and this was the exchange...on video and in total context.

Twitter

Who knows but questions that need answered

You forgot one:

February 17 Top disease official Dr Fauci: Risk of coronavirus in USA is 'minuscule'; skip mask and wash hands

[Bucco]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

You forgot one:

February 17 Top disease official Dr Fauci: Risk of coronavirus in USA is 'minuscule'; skip mask and wash hands

Sorry..

Not relative to what was discussed. Poster thought the USA should have warned earlier ...Another poster disagreed. A timeline like this...very detailed and specific.

Nice to discuss if you don't change subjects.

This is scary stuff, actually, and if you wish to add your line....ok...not sure why, but fine. Does not change anything.

And the timeline I pasted here ends in January because the point is we knew very early. If you read the link, it takes you into February, but again the point was we knew early and we displaced a doctor who was there on the scene. Just bad timing

[ficoguy]

Lets look at statistics for Florida:
The normal daily death rate is 16 per 100,000
Of the 16 per 100,000, 8.2 are caused by auto accidents
The current death rate from CV19 in Marion, Lake and Sumter counties is 3 per 100,000
So you are 2.73 times as likely to die from an auto accident than COV19
No government mandate to say "don't drive your cars"

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by WelchNH

The author looks well credentialed- until you realize he's a leading advocate for the Hoover Institute (right leaning ideology) and was a radiologist, not a public health expert.
I stopped reading this as a serious bit of medical advice after I did a simple calculation: as of this afternoon, the US had 945,000 reported Covid 19 cases and 53,334 deaths- that's a morbidity rate of 5.6%, not the 0.1%-0.2% the learned doctor claims in his first bullet point. WWD, it's 2.87 M cases and 202 K deaths- that a 7.0% morbidity rate.
The overall morbidity rate of the common flu is between 0.1% and 0.2%- so Covid 19 is an order of magnitude more deadly than the flu. I didn't attempt to examine death rates by age cohort, but all evidence points to Covid 19 as being much more lethal to the 65+ crowd.
Better to trust the reputable scientists and public health experts, rather than ideologues w non-relevant medical credentials!

You must have missed the numerous antibody studies published which show a much lower death rate.

antibody studies show lower death rate - Bing

[WelchNH]

Well, studies from Bing and elsewhere are just estimates.
My calculation shows actual death rates, as of this afternoon:
US 53.3 K deaths/ 994 K reported cases= 5.6%
That's actual- not some projected study.

[600th Photo Sq]

Originally Posted by Joe C.

My opinion of all this is for us to use a modicum of common sense. Avoid large indoor crowds and keep a high standard of personal hygiene. I would prefer to see everyone out and about and all places of work, worship and recreation to be operating as normal as possible. The WORST thing to damage this country is for the economy to stop. In the end, we are all going to get exposed to this virus, just as we all have been exposed to all the other diseases and sickness that circulate. Might as well get out there. We should all be concerned about those who will be here tomorrow and the next and do all we can to ensure their economic well being for the future.

One of the best post.

Basically common sense. The lockdown has to end for the USA to survive.