[justjim]

Originally Posted by sallybowron

I too am hoping that the vaccine is developed soon, but think about it. Where are they going to start using the vaccine . I am guessing it will not be The Villages. It will take months to vaccinate the whole USA and the world will want their vaccines also. We are looking at a year I bet,

Each year we get a flu vaccine and they tell you right up front that it’s at best 50% effective. But, if you get the flu, it will likely be a milder form of the flu strain going around any particular year. Vaccines aside, our best bet for next year is to do everything we possibly can to improve and maintain a strong immune system.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by Debi-G

The affair was pointed out as being hypocritical by telling everyone else to socially distance themselves, yet he stepped outside his home to have an affair with someone he did not live with...

Correct, but he had her over to his home even though he had tested positive and had symptoms "almost" 2 weeks before.

Reminds me of Chris Cuomo's altercation with a bike rider who saw Cuomo, his wife and 3 kids on a lot he owns 30 miles from his home while he was still under quarantine.

A few days later CNN staged a televised "emergence" from his basement quarantine.

[Swoop]

Originally Posted by Tom53

Personally, I'm tired of all the studies that come out with different results and contradict each other, so I look at numbers not estimates.

Those studies are actual numbers, but unless you test ever single person in the United States, you have to extrapolate the numbers. That’s pretty basic science.
If you only use those who were sick enough to be tested and then tested positive, and ignore the mild and asymptotic cases, your results will be dramatically skewed.

[Tom53]

Originally Posted by Swoop

Those studies are actual numbers, but unless you test ever single person in the United States, you have to extrapolate the numbers. That’s pretty basic science.
If you only use those who were sick enough to be tested and then tested positive, and ignore the mild and asymptotic cases, your results will be dramatically skewed.

Interesting read..

Why experts are questioning two hyped antibody studies in coronavirus hotspots | World news | The Guardian

Interesting paragraph..

"Both studies used an antibody test made by Premier Biotech company that has not been approved by the FDA and comes with an acknowledgment that it can record false positives."


Just an excerpt, but explains my reasons for being tired of studies.

[GoodLife]

Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University, who also serves on the research and development advisory board for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, plotted the rates of new coronavirus infections of the U.S., U.K., Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Spain. The numbers told a shocking story: irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week

Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Meet Professor Lockdown. Professor Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London. I'll get to the pretty lady in a sec.

Attachment 83985

Professor Ferguson's computer models projected 500k deaths in UK, 2.2 million in USA if strict lockdowns and social distancing were not put in place immediately. UK and USA governments listened. He later lowered his estimates drastically, but damage was done.

He just resigned after being caught having the pretty lady, who is married, over to his house a couple times. This was direct violation of UK rules forbidding intermingling of households. According to the Telegraph, “She has told friends about her relationship with Prof Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one" LOL Anyway, the Professor apparently believes you should do as I say, not what I do.

So I am watching reports about Sweden, the only country I know that has not enacted a lockdown to see how they are doing. Their death rate per million (282) is higher than their Baltic neighbors, but much lower than UK, Spain, France, Italy. Our death rate per million in USA is 214. So many think this shows their herd immunity approach is not working.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data

However, you need to look at the big picture. This is by no means over yet. We were sold the lockdown because it flattens the curve and the main reason to do this is so our hospitals do not get overrun. There are no reports of Sweden's hospitals getting overrun. Their economy has not taken the huge hit that ours has.

The lockdown does not stop the virus from killing people, it just slows it down. Epidemiologists and Dr Fauci predict that we will have successive waves of this virus for 1.5 to 2 years. We may have to lockdown again if it gets really bad.

So let's say Sweden achieves herd immunity in a few months, their death toll will stop growing. Countries who have taken the lockdown approach will continue to have deaths and their numbers will grow, passing Sweden.

The only thing that will change this is if an effective vaccine is produced. That could be in 6 months, two years, or never. At this point, I think if a vaccine is produced in 6 months or less, the lockdown approach is probably better. If not, we may find out Sweden's strategy is the better one.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

The UK, USA, and Italy were late to their shutdowns. Only China and S. Korea had a TRUE lockdown. S. Korea was early. They are now playing baseball. The US and UK have not resumed such activities.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Meet Professor Lockdown. Professor Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London. I'll get to the pretty lady in a sec.

Attachment 83985

Professor Ferguson's computer models projected 500k deaths in UK, 2.2 million in USA if strict lockdowns and social distancing were not put in place immediately. UK and USA governments listened. He later lowered his estimates drastically, but damage was done.

He just resigned after being caught having the pretty lady, who is married, over to his house a couple times. This was direct violation of UK rules forbidding intermingling of households. According to the Telegraph, “She has told friends about her relationship with Prof Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one" LOL Anyway, the Professor apparently believes you should do as I say, not what I do.

So I am watching reports about Sweden, the only country I know that has not enacted a lockdown to see how they are doing. Their death rate per million (282) is higher than their Baltic neighbors, but much lower than UK, Spain, France, Italy. Our death rate per million in USA is 214. So many think this shows their herd immunity approach is not working.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data

However, you need to look at the big picture. This is by no means over yet. We were sold the lockdown because it flattens the curve and the main reason to do this is so our hospitals do not get overrun. There are no reports of Sweden's hospitals getting overrun. Their economy has not taken the huge hit that ours has.

The lockdown does not stop the virus from killing people, it just slows it down. Epidemiologists and Dr Fauci predict that we will have successive waves of this virus for 1.5 to 2 years. We may have to lockdown again if it gets really bad.

So let's say Sweden achieves herd immunity in a few months, their death toll will stop growing. Countries who have taken the lockdown approach will continue to have deaths and their numbers will grow, passing Sweden.

The only thing that will change this is if an effective vaccine is produced. That could be in 6 months, two years, or never. At this point, I think if a vaccine is produced in 6 months or less, the lockdown approach is probably better. If not, we may find out Sweden's strategy is the better one.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

Herd immunity depends on the positive CV people having long term 100% immunity, of which most Medical experts are skeptical. They could be reinfected or transmit it. Many unknowns.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Velvet

Just a thought, as the virus mutates, and it is thought that it is already a different strain in Europe and US than it was in Asia, and immunity for one strain does not give immunity for the next strain. So Sweden may well have paid all those deaths in vain.

Excellent point.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by roscoguy

But this was also the point of the lockdown or self-isolation: IF people had strictly complied for a matter of only about 2 weeks, the same lack of hosts could/would have occurred.

Besides, herd immunity to COVID-19 is still only a theory. Nobody knows whether or not there is actually any immunity at all, and if there is, how long it lasts.

Other nations seem to have had very good results with their strict lockdown strategies, such as South Korea & Greece.

Yes, excellent point.

[ffresh]

Originally Posted by Tom53

Personally, I'm tired of all the studies that come out with different results and contradict each other, so I look at numbers not estimates.

Unfortunately, the numbers are fictitious too. All we know is what we're told - whether it's true or false is another matter.

Fred

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by catlady1955@aol.com

Sweden has advantages that we don’t. At any sign of illness they can go on paid sick leave and they have socialized medicine.

A big plus, socialized medicine. This CV emergency reveals that.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Skunky1

The pain will continue until the lesson is learned

Many lessons here.

[ffresh]

Originally Posted by Debi-G

The affair was pointed out as being hypocritical by telling everyone else to socially distance themselves, yet he stepped outside his home to have an affair with someone he did not live with...

I know the sex drive is powerful, BUT not as powerful as the self-preservation drive. I think we have to conclude that the numbers from his "non-peer-reviewed" paper are lacking in credulity, or, to put in laymen's terms, full of shyte - and he knew it. Many of his predictions in the past have earned the same confidence.

Fred'

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

Herd immunity depends on the positive CV people having long term 100% immunity, of which most Medical experts are skeptical. They could be reinfected or transmit it. Many unknowns.

They don't need long term immunity, just a few months will do the trick. For SARS, also a coronavirus, the previously infected were found to have an average of 2 years immunity.

Duration of Antibody Responses after Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome

Recent study on coronavirus antibodies

Reassuringly, we found that almost all participants with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in our study mounted an IgG immune response to this disease.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...613v1.full.pdf

[Tom53]

Originally Posted by ffresh

Unfortunately, the numbers are fictitious too. All we know is what we're told - whether it's true or false is another matter.

Fred

They may or may not be fictitious, none of us know for sure.