[justjim]

Those who want to join the herd step forward. That’s what I thought.

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

You asked for epidemiologists expertise, I gave it to you. Now you discount their opinion. Nobody is talking about the end of the world here. If we are in the first few months of a pandemic scenario that could last 2 years, as these epidemiologists say, then saying the fat lady is just warming up is quite logical.

The CIDRAP report stressed that no matter which scenario actually occurs, governments must be prepared for at least another 18-24 months of significant covid 19 activity.

The CIDRAP report compared the current coronavirus pandemic to past influenza outbreaks, stressing that SARS-CoV-2 cannot be compared to SARS or MERS, as these two viruses behaved in “substantially different” ways than the current coronavirus outbreak and that influenza pandemics are more comparable.

Dr. Moore is medical director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP). Dr. Lipsitch is the director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. John Barry is a professor at Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine. Dr. Osterholm is director of CIDRAP, University of Minnesota Regents Professor, and McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health.

Be glad to see any experts you can come up with who have different scientific opinions.

Not at all. It is an interesting retrospective review of previous pandemics. They don't give a single opinion, they list 3 scenarios, and yes, we still need to be prepared for all 3. But it doesn't mean any of those nicely graphed scenarios will come to pass. What about scenario #4---the pandemic fizzles out and is not heard from again? I find that unlikely given that international travel will resume sooner or later and there are some mutations that may occur. I guess it depends on how you define "the fat lady singing". If it means there are zero cases for 5 years, then she is still singing. If it means the worst is over in 3-4 months, then she might still be whimpering, but all the major arias have been sung.
Most people don't know the difference in various scientific studies, but the best designed ones are multiple university sited, double blinded, placebo controlled prospective studies with at least 2500 patients. This type of retrospective comparison does not lend itself to such rigorous criteria. So take it for what it is worth and what it intended to show, but less so as a predictive indicator.

[tvoyager]

Originally Posted by Ben Franklin

Thanks, but I didn't ask how Sweden was doing it, and you can not say, if one stays home and takes precautions, there is nothing to worry about. One still needs groceries and medicine, at minimal. Even if both are delivered, how many hands have touched the product? The virus stays active up to 24 hours on cardboard, 2-3 days on plastic and metal and 4 days on glass.

Now, about my only questions...

My post was only to add information. Reply’s that degrade an individual should be meet with questions of replying’s own agenda(SMH)

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by justjim

Those who want to join the herd step forward. That’s what I thought.

LOL You're part of the herd whether you like it or not. As stated before, Sweden told seniors and people at risk to stay home. They advised younger healthier people it's ok to go out, practice social distancing. You, as a senior or at risk person do not need to catch the disease for herd immunity to take effect. 70-80% is what's required, then virus runs out of hosts and dies.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by Ben Franklin

Thanks, but I didn't ask how Sweden was doing it, and you can not say, if one stays home and takes precautions, there is nothing to worry about. One still needs groceries and medicine, at minimal. Even if both are delivered, how many hands have touched the product? The virus stays active up to 24 hours on cardboard, 2-3 days on plastic and metal and 4 days on glass.

Now, about my only questions...

I disinfect my groceries after delivery or curbside pickup, you can leave dry goods in garage for a few days. Over 99% of infections are from contact with other people inside buildings. Risk of groceries contamination is very low. Look it up on CDC guidelines.

Didn't answer your question comparing herd immunity to suicide or abortion because it's ridiculous.

[Quixote]

Originally Posted by davem4616

.... this takes the post a little off course, but it is about the Swedes, so I'll share:

Back in the 1900's a manufacturing company in central Massachusetts, where I was raised, sent recruiters to Sweden and brought hundreds of Swedes over to America to work in their factory. Their research had indicated that Swedes were much more inclined to adapt and follow direction and far less likely to organize into a union than other nationalities or the local US workers at that time were. This one company wanted to avoid having to deal with a union. That company ended up with a predominant Swedish workforce and to this day never did unionize. All of the other large manufacturing firms in that same city did unionize.

I'm chuckling while reading this. Back in the 1900s my cousin Joe owned textile mills in Fall River MA; his family were the first developers of tricot, a fabric used for women's undergarments. He gave me a tour of one of the plants including comfortable and attractive employee breakrooms and dining room (I was impressed), and as we walked he brought up the issue of union organizing. He said that he had found an ideal solution to not having it in his plants.

I asked how he managed that. He explained, "I pay my workers more, I provide better benefits, I give them more comfortable facilities, and it benefits me in return because they feel more a part of the business," going on to extol the benefits of employee loyalty. How simple, eh?...

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

Not at all. It is an interesting retrospective review of previous pandemics. They don't give a single opinion, they list 3 scenarios, and yes, we still need to be prepared for all 3. But it doesn't mean any of those nicely graphed scenarios will come to pass. What about scenario #4---the pandemic fizzles out and is not heard from again? I find that unlikely given that international travel will resume sooner or later and there are some mutations that may occur. I guess it depends on how you define "the fat lady singing". If it means there are zero cases for 5 years, then she is still singing. If it means the worst is over in 3-4 months, then she might still be whimpering, but all the major arias have been sung.
Most people don't know the difference in various scientific studies, but the best designed ones are multiple university sited, double blinded, placebo controlled prospective studies with at least 2500 patients. This type of retrospective comparison does not lend itself to such rigorous criteria. So take it for what it is worth and what it intended to show, but less so as a predictive indicator.

Dr Fauci says second wave of coronavirus is 'inevitable' The nation’s top epidemiologist said Tuesday the United States could be in for “a bad fall and a bad winter,” if it's not prepared for a second wave of the virus.

And LOL. Epidemiologists don't conduct double blinded placebo controlled clinical trials to predict the course of pandemics, especially with a new virus. They study past outbreaks that are have similar person to person spread, R factor etc

[Swoop]

Originally Posted by Tom53

Sweden has a rate of just over 12% deaths per infected, the US is just under 6%. If we followed Sweden's plan we could have conceivably had 2,526,486 infected and 149,620 deaths at this point.

Deaths per million is nothing more than a statistic, and leads to a false sense of security. San Marino has a death rate of 1208/million, over 4 times US and Sweden, which resulted in 41 dead, yes 41!

Deaths per infection is reality!

So it comes down to choice, do I put my money on the chances of getting the virus, or do I go all in on the chances of surviving it.

Numbers don't lie, but they can be misused.

And you are misusing the numbers. You are using a death rate that is derived by taking the number of people who have tested positive divided by the number of people who were coded as Covid deaths. That is incorrect. You have to use all those infected divided by those who died. If up to 80% are asymptomatic, they would never have been tested. Two independent antibody studies show that more than 50 TIMES more people have the antibodies than have had positive test results.

[amexsbow]

Just came back from Pickleball. What a beautiful day. Each day is a gift. You NEVER know when that gift will end. Live each day to the fullest. When I worked in Law Enforcement I never knew if any day was my last. At first I had a lot of anxiety. But then I realized that one must take chances in life based on what they want in life. Do what is prudent to the extent of your knowledge and risk tolerance. We all have to go in the end.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by Tom53

Sweden has a rate of just over 12% deaths per infected, the US is just under 6%. If we followed Sweden's plan we could have conceivably had 2,526,486 infected and 149,620 deaths at this point.

Deaths per million is nothing more than a statistic, and leads to a false sense of security. San Marino has a death rate of 1208/million, over 4 times US and Sweden, which resulted in 41 dead, yes 41!

Deaths per infection is reality!

So it comes down to choice, do I put my money on the chances of getting the virus, or do I go all in on the chances of surviving it.

Numbers don't lie, but they can be misused.

Didn't we go over this already. Death rate per infection is not reality.

Death rate per infection is a statistic skewed by many things including number of tests performed, percentage of deaths that are from nursing homes (most likely to die), and how good your Doctors are.

Death rate per capita is best for judging a country's success in combating a pandemic.

[rmd2]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

Until and unless we get some hard figures, some genuine data that can be trusted on who is sick, what they are sick with, what did they die of …., until then, the virologists and epidemiologists with the CDC or WHO with a specialty in the pathogenesis of single stranded RNA viruses will have difficulty with their projections.

I bet a lot of them are ready to BITE.

I don't trust the WHO at all.

[amexsbow]

Could the statistics be skewed? Medicare pays $39,000 per day for Covid patients. Just saying. Money talks....

[chet2020]

Originally Posted by roscoguy

But this was also the point of the lockdown or self-isolation: IF people had strictly complied for a matter of only about 2 weeks, the same lack of hosts could/would have occurred.

Besides, herd immunity to COVID-19 is still only a theory. Nobody knows whether or not there is actually any immunity at all, and if there is, how long it lasts.

Other nations seem to have had very good results with their strict lockdown strategies, such as South Korea & Greece.

South Korea combined their lockdown with massive testing and contact tracing. They stopped the spread with the lockdown, then caught any lingering cases and got COVID positive people off the streets. We've stopped the spread just like South Korea did, but now everyone is just going to be let loose with no testing because of our bumbling the last couple of months. It's a wasted opportunity.

[sallybowron]

Originally Posted by Stuart Zaikov

Good question but hopefully one of the vaccines being tested now will be available by end of the year and stop the virus in its tracks

I too am hoping that the vaccine is developed soon, but think about it. Where are they going to start using the vaccine . I am guessing it will not be The Villages. It will take months to vaccinate the whole USA and the world will want their vaccines also. We are looking at a year I bet,

[Tom53]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Didn't we go over this already. Death rate per infection is not reality.

Death rate per infection is a statistic skewed by many things including number of tests performed, percentage of deaths that are from nursing homes (most likely to die), and how good your Doctors are.

Death rate per capita is best for judging a country's success in combating a pandemic.

If you have a known number of deaths, and a known number of infected, the rate is real. You keep discounting nursing homes like those people aren't real. But your per capita reasoning also relies on the unknown numbers while the death per infection rate relies on actual posted numbers, real or not.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.