[Escape Artist]

Speaking from my own experience buying in the Villages in the spring, rapidly increasing home prices were driven by a socio-political panic situation. I wish I had bought earlier as home prices would have been lower with more availability in my price range.

[askcarl]

Buying Puts.... No.

Take a nice trip to Vegas and have more fun doing the same thing. Gambling with your $.

Carl

[Packer Fan]

Originally Posted by Boomer

Economic history tells us that the stock market and the housing market ride in tandem. We can only hope that what is coming will just be a deep breath. I personally think we need that -- just that -- but we have been living in Crazytown for years -- so who knows where we are headed.

Boomer

.

Although I disagree with a lot of your post, I am only going to point out one thing- this statement is just patently false. In the 70s, the stock market went NOWHERE for 10 years and housing prices skyrocketed ( My Dad sure loved that, since all his money was in his house) due to inflation.
Then in the crash of 2008, they both went down together. They zig an zag a lot independently of each other.

The only way they are tied together at all is through interest rates, which affect both markets.

[Packer Fan]

Interesting question and nobody knows. A few notes.
1. I have "skin in the game" as I have a house in Fernandina that is strickly a rental in addition to my retirement home. I get calls weekly from Realtors, and the numbers are quite attractive. The fact I am not selling is partially due to what I will state below, but partially because I don't need the money right now, and will in 5 years. Plan on living in it for 2 years before I sell it. I hate taxes.

2. This runup in prices was caused by low interest rates, high demand, and low supply. Basic econ 101. It is NOT a villages phenomenon but is going on everywhere.
3. The Villages issue is compounded by the fact 10,000 baby boomers a day are retiring, but offset by the fact the developer builds a LOT of houses.
4. Low interest rates will rise, slowing buying, but not so much in the villages, since over half the houses are cash transactions.
5. High Demand will not change - Millenials are forming families at a VERY high rate, and in TV, retirements will continue strong for the next 12-15 years or so.
6. Low Supply may change in TV if the developer ramps up, but with low availability of people this may not change much. In the rest of the country, builders are VERY wary of building. They are still at below 70% of pre 2008 levels. They also can't find workers. My opinion is the build rate won't go up much.

Throw in the fact that lenders are NOT making anywhere near the bad loans they made in the housing crisis.

So my prediction is as follows - prices will level off to more normal increases. I predict 5-7% a year in The Villages, 2-3% everywhere else. There will be no crash. Those prognosticating that are basing it on a once in a lifetime crash in 2008. We might see a one year lull in prices where there is no inflation in TV in maybe 2023. Thats the most that will happen. I am keeping that extra house because it rents really well(because many rental owners have sold), and if it goes up even 2-3%, it beats cash and bonds......
TV real estate is also a good diversifier from Stocks and Bonds.
You asked, there it is.

[justjim]

Originally Posted by Packer Fan

Interesting question and nobody knows. A few notes.
1. I have "skin in the game" as I have a house in Fernandina that is strickly a rental in addition to my retirement home. I get calls weekly from Realtors, and the numbers are quite attractive. The fact I am not selling is partially due to what I will state below, but partially because I don't need the money right now, and will in 5 years. Plan on living in it for 2 years before I sell it. I hate taxes.

2. This runup in prices was caused by low interest rates, high demand, and low supply. Basic econ 101. It is NOT a villages phenomenon but is going on everywhere.
3. The Villages issue is compounded by the fact 10,000 baby boomers a day are retiring, but offset by the fact the developer builds a LOT of houses.
4. Low interest rates will rise, slowing buying, but not so much in the villages, since over half the houses are cash transactions.
5. High Demand will not change - Millenials are forming families at a VERY high rate, and in TV, retirements will continue strong for the next 12-15 years or so.
6. Low Supply may change in TV if the developer ramps up, but with low availability of people this may not change much. In the rest of the country, builders are VERY wary of building. They are still at below 70% of pre 2008 levels. They also can't find workers. My opinion is the build rate won't go up much.

Throw in the fact that lenders are NOT making anywhere near the bad loans they made in the housing crisis.

So my prediction is as follows - prices will level off to more normal increases. I predict 5-7% a year in The Villages, 2-3% everywhere else. There will be no crash. Those prognosticating that are basing it on a once in a lifetime crash in 2008. We might see a one year lull in prices where there is no inflation in TV in maybe 2023. Thats the most that will happen. I am keeping that extra house because it rents really well(because many rental owners have sold), and if it goes up even 2-3%, it beats cash and bonds......
TV real estate is also a good diversifier from Stocks and Bonds.
You asked, there it is.

Nice post… A Bear Fan

[jdulej]

Originally Posted by Packer Fan

Interesting question and nobody knows. A few notes.
1. I have "skin in the game" as I have a house in Fernandina that is strickly a rental in addition to my retirement home. I get calls weekly from Realtors, and the numbers are quite attractive. The fact I am not selling is partially due to what I will state below, but partially because I don't need the money right now, and will in 5 years. Plan on living in it for 2 years before I sell it. I hate taxes.

2. This runup in prices was caused by low interest rates, high demand, and low supply. Basic econ 101. It is NOT a villages phenomenon but is going on everywhere.
3. The Villages issue is compounded by the fact 10,000 baby boomers a day are retiring, but offset by the fact the developer builds a LOT of houses.
4. Low interest rates will rise, slowing buying, but not so much in the villages, since over half the houses are cash transactions.
5. High Demand will not change - Millenials are forming families at a VERY high rate, and in TV, retirements will continue strong for the next 12-15 years or so.
6. Low Supply may change in TV if the developer ramps up, but with low availability of people this may not change much. In the rest of the country, builders are VERY wary of building. They are still at below 70% of pre 2008 levels. They also can't find workers. My opinion is the build rate won't go up much.

Throw in the fact that lenders are NOT making anywhere near the bad loans they made in the housing crisis.

So my prediction is as follows - prices will level off to more normal increases. I predict 5-7% a year in The Villages, 2-3% everywhere else. There will be no crash. Those prognosticating that are basing it on a once in a lifetime crash in 2008. We might see a one year lull in prices where there is no inflation in TV in maybe 2023. Thats the most that will happen. I am keeping that extra house because it rents really well(because many rental owners have sold), and if it goes up even 2-3%, it beats cash and bonds......
TV real estate is also a good diversifier from Stocks and Bonds.
You asked, there it is.

Good post! I came here from California, where housing swings can be heart stopping. It is usually all about timing and not letting yourself get into a spot where you are forced to sell.
For work, I used to drive from Sacramento to Phoenix from time to time and on one drive, after the 2008 crash, drove through what looked like a wierd Nevada ghost town. Unpaved streets lined with brand new, 3-4,000 sq ft homes. All empty, many with the windows broken out. 5 years later I made the same detour and all those homes had been torn down and signs were up advertising a new housing development - crazy!
One thing I've noticed here in central Fl. The run-up seems to have been much faster and higher in TV than in the surrounding area. We now see designer homes pushing up past 1 million! TV may slow down a bit to let the other areas catch up, but I doubt it will stop or go down

[eweissenbach]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

It has been an amazing run! When will it stop? Then what?

Anyone care to opine?

US home price growth reaches new high for fourth consecutive month

Good question and I’m glad you used the word “guess” because that is all ANYONE has. I am a former realtor and have a chartered financial consultant degree with thirty five years of financial services experience and, having said that, I have no idea how to answer your question. What I do know is I cannot today buy a home in TV, or pretty much anywhere else, at 2012 prices or even 2020 prices. I also cannot knowingly, today, buy a home at 2022, (23, 24 and on and on) prices. House prices tend to rise over time, though sometimes with temporary fallbacks. When I first began pricing houses in TV in 2009, I could have bought a lot of homes for a third the price they might sell for today. Of course there are hundreds of securities I could have purchased then that would be worth three times as much and more with a lot lower cost of ownership. Another thing I know is I am a leading baby boomer at 75, meaning the median boomer is 65 and the youngest is 55. That means there are still many millions of current and future retirees that are in the target market for The Villages. As more and more people move to TV it means more and more people who call, write, or go home and tell their friends, family, and ex coworkers how wonderful The Villages is (it seems the majority of people I meet who are relatively new residents say they came because a friend or family member invited them down and they fell in love). All that means nothing except to say, all we can deal with is today - no one knows or is guaranteed tomorrow so house prices are exactly what they are right now!

[Escape Artist]

Originally Posted by jdulej

Good post! I came here from California, where housing swings can be heart stopping. It is usually all about timing and not letting yourself get into a spot where you are forced to sell. For work, I used to drive from Sacramento to Phoenix from time to time...

It sounds like you are from my neck of the woods I sold my home located in a suburb of Sacramento in the fall of 2020. I made some profit on it but had I waited six months I really could have cleaned up.

As for predictions that things will flatten out or continue with modest growth, it all depends on what happens on a federal level. Will the Fed raise interest rates, will there be tax increases in 2022, which might include figuring in your assets and investments?

I heard the government now wants basically all income and banking transactions to be monitored and reported to the IRS. Not just the usual $10,000 plus transaction, the threshold will be lowered and might include savings, IRAs, etc. so that might scare a lot of people. They gotta pay for those multi-trillion dollar spending sprees somehow!

[frose]

gas will be 6.50 a gallon, milk 7.00 a gal, inflation @ 20%, tax rates at never before seen rate, housing will tank.. 6 months maybe 8, stock market crash and will take housing with it.. Remember 2008?? It will seem like a great time compared to what will happen now.

[tophcfa]

Originally Posted by frose

gas will be 6.50 a gallon, milk 7.00 a gal, inflation @ 20%, tax rates at never before seen rate, housing will tank.. 6 months maybe 8, stock market crash and will take housing with it.. Remember 2008?? It will seem like a great time compared to what will happen now.

I am very concerned about both the stock market and housing bubbles created by prolonged artificially low interest rates and other irresponsible actions taken by the Federal Reserve. I am also very concerned about both our country and it’s residents seemingly incurable addiction to unsustainable debt. Unfortunately, fiscal discipline seems to be a thing of the past and something the younger generations have never known. The unfortunate result of this will be high inflation, a substantially weaker dollar, and significant asset bubble corrections.

That being said, the predictions in the above quoted post are extremely pessimistic, especially in the stated time frame. Buckle up!

[jdulej]

Originally Posted by frose

gas will be 6.50 a gallon, milk 7.00 a gal, inflation @ 20%, tax rates at never before seen rate, housing will tank.. 6 months maybe 8, stock market crash and will take housing with it.. Remember 2008?? It will seem like a great time compared to what will happen now.

Not gonna happen. No way. Todays Fed is too active. I know some hope it does to make the current admin look bad but the pres really does not have the power - it’s the fed. Remember, the 3.5 trillion (over 10 years) bill being pushed is less than 1/2 the defense budget which everyone seems fine with going up every year with little to show for it

[Escape Artist]

Originally Posted by jdulej

Not gonna happen. No way. Todays Fed is too active. I know some hope it does to make the current admin look bad but the pres really does not have the power - it’s the fed. Remember, the 3.5 trillion (over 10 years) bill being pushed is less than 1/2 the defense budget which everyone seems fine with going up every year with little to show for it

It won't be the last multi-trillion bill this administration will try to advance through the legislature.

[BlueStarAirlines]

Originally Posted by merrymini

I would like to know where these 5 million people are now?

Here is a hint...its not true and is another story line to justify the bubble- 5 Million Homes are MISSING! - YouTube

[jdulej]

Originally Posted by Escape Artist

It won't be the last multi-trillion bill this administration will try to advance through the legislature.

I don't think so. Maybe in his second term. After the current bills pass, can't use reconciliation to push things through and next year is an election year anyway, so nothing will happen except bickering.

All we will see from now until the midterms are these current bills being passed and one Supreme Court judge getting replaced. After that it depends on how the election goes

[jbrown132]

Originally Posted by Packer Fan

Interesting question and nobody knows. A few notes.
1. I have "skin in the game" as I have a house in Fernandina that is strickly a rental in addition to my retirement home. I get calls weekly from Realtors, and the numbers are quite attractive. The fact I am not selling is partially due to what I will state below, but partially because I don't need the money right now, and will in 5 years. Plan on living in it for 2 years before I sell it. I hate taxes.

2. This runup in prices was caused by low interest rates, high demand, and low supply. Basic econ 101. It is NOT a villages phenomenon but is going on everywhere.
3. The Villages issue is compounded by the fact 10,000 baby boomers a day are retiring, but offset by the fact the developer builds a LOT of houses.
4. Low interest rates will rise, slowing buying, but not so much in the villages, since over half the houses are cash transactions.
5. High Demand will not change - Millenials are forming families at a VERY high rate, and in TV, retirements will continue strong for the next 12-15 years or so.
6. Low Supply may change in TV if the developer ramps up, but with low availability of people this may not change much. In the rest of the country, builders are VERY wary of building. They are still at below 70% of pre 2008 levels. They also can't find workers. My opinion is the build rate won't go up much.

Throw in the fact that lenders are NOT making anywhere near the bad loans they made in the housing crisis.

So my prediction is as follows - prices will level off to more normal increases. I predict 5-7% a year in The Villages, 2-3% everywhere else. There will be no crash. Those prognosticating that are basing it on a once in a lifetime crash in 2008. We might see a one year lull in prices where there is no inflation in TV in maybe 2023. Thats the most that will happen. I am keeping that extra house because it rents really well(because many rental owners have sold), and if it goes up even 2-3%, it beats cash and bonds......
TV real estate is also a good diversifier from Stocks and Bonds.
You asked, there it is.

What happens if if inflation is up to say 6-8 percent a year an interest rates climb to the same or higher rates. It can only do one thing to the economy and house prices.