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  #16  
Old 05-23-2020, 06:55 AM
Dharrisoncmo@gmail.com Dharrisoncmo@gmail.com is offline
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Default Curve Similar - BUT - Not The Death Count

Yes, a similar curve. But the Y-Axis can be misleading. The range goes from 1 death per to 10! THAT IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE. So, the graph is interesting - but the conclusion drawn from is not accurate.




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Originally Posted by GoodLife View Post
What it is ain't exactly clear

This is a graph of Covid 19 deaths per million population of the USA and various countries in Europe. It shows that the pandemic has followed a similar curve in these countries, with deaths rising rapidly, and then slowly going down over a period of 60-80 days.

Attachment 84221

A recent study by an Israeli mathematician proposed that the virus follows a similar curve in most counties, rising up and then going down over a period of 70 days. He doesn't think lockdowns have much effect.

Top Israeli prof claims simple stats show virus plays itself out after 70 days | The Times of Israel

Two recent scientific papers have proposed that their may be some preexisting immunity to covid 19 through previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold.

Using diverse assays for detection of antibodies reactive with the SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) glycoprotein, we demonstrate the presence of pre-existing immunity in uninfected and unexposed humans to the new coronavirus.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...414v1.full.pdf

https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?...2820%2930610-3
  #17  
Old 05-23-2020, 07:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Dharrisoncmo@gmail.com View Post
Yes, a similar curve. But the Y-Axis can be misleading. The range goes from 1 death per to 10! THAT IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE. So, the graph is interesting - but the conclusion drawn from is not accurate.
I used that graph because it adjusted for population in countries. Here is another graph plotting daily total confirmed deaths in USA vs Europe. Europe has more people than us and peaked earlier, but you see the same shape in the curves over the same period of time. Deaths rise quickly and then taper off. Doesn't change my conclusion that something unknown is at work here at all.

daily-deaths-covid-19-1-1-jpg
  #18  
Old 05-23-2020, 07:35 AM
haysus7 haysus7 is offline
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The point was to slow the infection rate so not to overwhelm hospitals. Only a vaccine will control infection
  #19  
Old 05-23-2020, 07:43 AM
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I am hardly an expert in this field, nor would pretend to know all the answers...but, IMHO, this must've spread to MANY asymptomatic people for some time, to have suddenly spread THROUGHOUT the world without anyone noticing(or showing signs/symptoms/deaths)???
  #20  
Old 05-23-2020, 07:45 AM
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The point was to slow the infection rate so not to overwhelm hospitals. Only a vaccine will control infection
Yes, but Sweden did not lockdown, did not overwhelm their hospitals, does not have vaccine and yet they show a similar rise and fall in deaths,

daily-deaths-covid-19-2-1-jpg
  #21  
Old 05-23-2020, 07:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Two Bills View Post
""""A recent study by an Israeli mathematician proposed that the virus follows a similar curve in most counties, rising up and then going down over a period of 70 days. [B][U]
It's called the brontosaurus effect. Most dinosaurs, and viruses, start small, get bigger in the middle, and get smaller at the other end.
  #22  
Old 05-23-2020, 08:15 AM
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Originally Posted by GoodLife View Post
What it is ain't exactly clear

This is a graph of Covid 19 deaths per million population of the USA and various countries in Europe. It shows that the pandemic has followed a similar curve in these countries, with deaths rising rapidly, and then slowly going down over a period of 60-80 days.
It's a shame more countries weren't included in the graph. It would be interesting to see how places like Canada, South Korea, Greece, New Zealand & China compared. OK, not China...
  #23  
Old 05-23-2020, 08:19 AM
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Yes, but Sweden did not lockdown, did not overwhelm their hospitals, does not have vaccine and yet they show a similar rise and fall in deaths,

Attachment 84238
But their immediate neighbors did lock down, and had a lot less cases and deaths.
Germany, Austria, New Zealand, Australia etc. locked down early, and compared to many, had far lower instances of the virus, and minimal deaths per head of population.
Here in UK our 'experts' dithered over lockdown or herd immunity, and look what that did for us, and our hospitals were not overwhelmed either.
The curve may be nearly the same, but the numbers show that early lockdown reduced cases substancially.
  #24  
Old 05-23-2020, 08:21 AM
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Was it "Take away my liberty and protect me from myself so that I won't have a very remote possibility of dying?" Wait, not sure that is what was said.
I believe it's "take my liberty and give me death"
  #25  
Old 05-23-2020, 08:27 AM
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But their immediate neighbors did lock down, and had a lot less cases and deaths.
Germany, Austria, New Zealand, Australia etc. locked down early, and compared to many, had far lower instances of the virus, and minimal deaths per head of population.
Here in UK our 'experts' dithered over lockdown or herd immunity, and look what that did for us, and our hospitals were not overwhelmed either.
The curve may be nearly the same, but the numbers show that lockdown reduced cases substancially.
Yes, every country was different, hard or soft lockdown, early or late lockdown etc. Here's a good article at Bloomberg, discussing this.

With governments across Europe reopening their economies for business, it’s a good moment to look back on the different paths taken to control Covid-19 outbreaks to try to see how effective they were.

Some — above all Italy and Spain — enforced prolonged and strict lockdowns after infections took off. Others — especially Sweden — preferred a much more relaxed approach. Portugal and Greece chose to close down while cases were relatively low. France and the U.K. took longer before deciding to impose the most restrictive measures.

But, as our next chart shows, there’s little correlation between the severity of a nation’s restrictions and whether it managed to curb excess fatalities — a measure that looks at the overall number of deaths compared with normal trends.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
  #26  
Old 05-23-2020, 08:32 AM
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Based on this, you go ahead and expose yourself and hope you are one of those who is SARS immune and that will protect you. Good luck with that, the research is way too early.
  #27  
Old 05-23-2020, 08:34 AM
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It is pretty hot in Brazil and they are burying people is mass graves.
  #28  
Old 05-23-2020, 08:35 AM
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Yes, but Sweden did not lockdown, did not overwhelm their hospitals, does not have vaccine and yet they show a similar rise and fall in deaths,

Attachment 84238
A lockdown is not the only thing to consider though. Most that died from Covid-19 seem to have underlying conditions, of which obesity is a major one. Coronavirus risk: 90% of patients had underlying conditions Another important stat to take into account could then be the different rates of obesity in USA (36.2%, 12th highest in the world) vs Sweden (20.6%, 97th from the top).
List of countries by obesity rate - Wikipedia
  #29  
Old 05-23-2020, 08:48 AM
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Where? What study?
  #30  
Old 05-23-2020, 08:49 AM
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Originally Posted by allsport View Post
Based on this, you go ahead and expose yourself and hope you are one of those who is SARS immune and that will protect you. Good luck with that, the research is way too early.
Let us know when you think the research is on time. Why do you think the CDC just drastically reduced the death rates for this virus? Why did they say asymptomatic cases are at least 35% of the total? Why do asymptomatic people never get sick? Why do death total rise quickly and then fall off in every country?

I don't know if I am immune since I haven't had an antibody test yet. So I continue staying away from people inside buildings. I'm in a high risk group. This doesn't prevent me from considering that the whole worldwide lockdown was an error since 80% or more of deaths are from nursing homes and old people with pre existing health problems. A policy of just isolating seniors and strict rules, PPE for all nursing home staff etc would have saved more lives and allowed younger people to keep working with some precautions and not crash the economy.
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