[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by oldtimes

When/if the numbers finally go down they will say “see we gave you all those free tests and now it is getting better, now we need to raise your taxes”

And send out more "free" tests.......

[blueash]

The home covid antigen tests have an extremely low rate of false positives. Those who claim otherwise are not telling you the truth. An improperly obtained sample will not give a false positive, but it may give a false negative. A study of nearly one million rapid antigen tests done on symptom free people in Canada where all positive tests on the rapid were then tested with PCR found that the false positive rate was 0.05% of all tests done.
That for the math challenged is 50 out of 1 million tests. [edit, math error, it is 500]

So the person who wrote
"Watch the case number grow 1000% in the next 2 weeks.......all the false positives.."

is lying about what will happen with home testing even IF the results were being reported. And s/he is wrong about reporting. There is no, zero, zilch, nada obligation for the reporting of these at home Covid tests.

Local or state health departments may be able to accept your report. AFAIK there is no Federal agency that will accept reports from consumer use. We can guess what the state of Florida will do about wanting to know the number of positive cases.

So the truth is

1, The at home test if positive is overwhelmingly a true positive not a false positive especially during a period of high rates of disease
2. Because patients can now test at home, the real number of cases being reported is much more likely to be falsely lowered. Those who would have been tested in labs and thus obligated to be reported will NOT have their data collected.
3. There is no required reporting of positive, or negative at home tests. Some states or counties may actively encourage voluntary reporting, some will keep their heads in the sand and not encourage reporting.
4. If your at home test is negative that is nice but not strong proof. The rate of false negative especially from poor test technique with nasal swabbing is considerable. A negative result is probably more accurate when you are symptomatic rather than just as a screening test.


If you believe you have Covid and knowing your status is important because you would want monoclonal treatment or you have exposed a high risk person, the PCR test which is not rapid is a better test for determining you are really negative. Nonetheless the screening test is a good test.


As to this comment
"Exactly, I have zero confidence they will be accurate, just another waste of taxpayer money."

Your confidence would add nothing to the situation. The test is the test. Its accuracy, both false positives and negatives is established. Whether you care to believe in science over your gut feelings does not change reality.

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by blueash

The home covid antigen tests have an extremely low rate of false positives. Those who claim otherwise are not telling you the truth. An improperly obtained sample will not give a false positive, but it may give a false negative. A study of nearly one million rapid antigen tests done on symptom free people in Canada where all positive tests on the rapid were then tested with PCR found that the false positive rate was 0.05% of all tests done.
That for the math challenged is 50 out of 1 million tests.

So the person who wrote
"Watch the case number grow 1000% in the next 2 weeks.......all the false positives.."

is lying about what will happen with home testing even IF the results were being reported. And s/he is wrong about reporting. There is no, zero, zilch, nada obligation for the reporting of these at home Covid tests.

Local or state health departments may be able to accept your report. AFAIK there is no Federal agency that will accept reports from consumer use. We can guess what the state of Florida will do about wanting to know the number of positive cases.

So the truth is

1, The at home test if positive is overwhelmingly a true positive not a false positive especially during a period of high rates of disease
2. Because patients can now test at home, the real number of cases being reported is much more likely to be falsely lowered. Those who would have been tested in labs and thus obligated to be reported will NOT have their data collected.
3. There is no required reporting of positive, or negative at home tests. Some states or counties may actively encourage voluntary reporting, some will keep their heads in the sand and not encourage reporting.
4. If your at home test is negative that is nice but not strong proof. The rate of false negative especially from poor test technique with nasal swabbing is considerable. A negative result is probably more accurate when you are symptomatic rather than just as a screening test.


If you believe you have Covid and knowing your status is important because you would want monoclonal treatment or you have exposed a high risk person, the PCR test which is not rapid is a better test for determining you are really negative. Nonetheless the screening test is a good test.


As to this comment
"Exactly, I have zero confidence they will be accurate, just another waste of taxpayer money."

Your confidence would add nothing to the situation. The test is the test. Its accuracy, both false positives and negatives is established. Whether you care to believe in science over your gut feelings does not change reality.

Absolutely agree 100%, and one of your best posts The problem with home testing remains false negatives.

[oldtimes]

Originally Posted by blueash

The home covid antigen tests have an extremely low rate of false positives. Those who claim otherwise are not telling you the truth. An improperly obtained sample will not give a false positive, but it may give a false negative. A study of nearly one million rapid antigen tests done on symptom free people in Canada where all positive tests on the rapid were then tested with PCR found that the false positive rate was 0.05% of all tests done.
That for the math challenged is 50 out of 1 million tests.

So the person who wrote
"Watch the case number grow 1000% in the next 2 weeks.......all the false positives.."

is lying about what will happen with home testing even IF the results were being reported. And s/he is wrong about reporting. There is no, zero, zilch, nada obligation for the reporting of these at home Covid tests.

Local or state health departments may be able to accept your report. AFAIK there is no Federal agency that will accept reports from consumer use. We can guess what the state of Florida will do about wanting to know the number of positive cases.

So the truth is

1, The at home test if positive is overwhelmingly a true positive not a false positive especially during a period of high rates of disease
2. Because patients can now test at home, the real number of cases being reported is much more likely to be falsely lowered. Those who would have been tested in labs and thus obligated to be reported will NOT have their data collected.
3. There is no required reporting of positive, or negative at home tests. Some states or counties may actively encourage voluntary reporting, some will keep their heads in the sand and not encourage reporting.
4. If your at home test is negative that is nice but not strong proof. The rate of false negative especially from poor test technique with nasal swabbing is considerable. A negative result is probably more accurate when you are symptomatic rather than just as a screening test.


If you believe you have Covid and knowing your status is important because you would want monoclonal treatment or you have exposed a high risk person, the PCR test which is not rapid is a better test for determining you are really negative. Nonetheless the screening test is a good test.


As to this comment
"Exactly, I have zero confidence they will be accurate, just another waste of taxpayer money."

Your confidence would add nothing to the situation. The test is the test. Its accuracy, both false positives and negatives is established. Whether you care to believe in science over your gut feelings does not change reality.

Regardless, timing is everything. You can test negative on one day and test positive on the next. So if you test negative and feel you are safe that is not always correct. According to an article I read for the University of Chicago the test results are only valid for 8 to 12 hours.

For the unbelievers:
COVID-19 testing: When to test, how accurate are home tests and more - UChicago Medicine

[maistocars]

Originally Posted by sohappytobehere

Right now, you can order 4 free Covid tests at covidtests.gov. I just ordered ours. Simple!

Big question is how long will it take to be delivered. My guess is you'll wait 3-6 months minimum. Seems like we have way too many people getting carried away with testing - it's the new "IN" thing. Next step is to start a new club - and then we'll see Friday night testing parties.

[blueash]

I do need to come back and say I got my math wrong in the original post. I may be a little math challenged myself. 0.05% of 1 million is 500 not 50

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by blueash

I do need to come back and say I got my math, wrong in the original post. I may be a little math challenged myself. 0.05% of 1 million is 500 not 50

Actually, I have a feeling there is a problem with this study that showed a 0.05% false positive rate. From the article:

"Researchers from the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management published their peer-reviewed findings in the journal JAMA earlier this month. They looked at the results of more than 900,000 rapid antigen tests conducted over 537 workplaces in Canada between January and October 2021.

During this period, Canada had two significant waves of COVID-19 driven by the Delta variant. A total of 1,322 positive results were logged with rapid tests. Of these cases, 1,103 also had data from a PCR test to compare against.

In total, 462 rapid test results, or 0.05 per cent of the 900,000 results, resulted in false positives. This represents 42 per cent of the positive test results in the study."

I just find it unlikely that they only had 1,322 positive results out of 900,000 tests---that equals a positivity rate of 0.1468%, when we have been running positivity rates in the US of 20, 30, and even 40+% in some areas. Then, the "false positive" tests were 462, representing, yes, 0.05 of 900,000 but a whopping 42% of the positives. So, in other words, if your home test was positive, there is a 42% chance it is false, not 0.05%. I would think further studies are needed.

[golfnut]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

And now for the obvious question that I just asked of the other person who posted the same thing: Did you NEED them, or did you order them because they are "free'?

and now for the obvious answer, you order them now so you have them when you need them, if you wait until you need them ordering them online does absolutely no good. this is the second time you asked this question, did you not get enough information the first time.

And now for the obvious question, how many more times will you ask this question?

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by golfnut

and now for the obvious answer, you order them now so you have them when you need them, if you wait until you need them ordering them online does absolutely no good. this is the second time you asked this question, did you not get enough information the first time.

And now for the obvious question, how many more times will you ask this question?

Probably until I get a better answer than I've gotten so far-----but I'm not holding my breath. But thank you for inquiring about my keyboard time

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by nick demis

By the time the tests get to your mailbox, they expect the new variant will have already infected the entire population and be on its way out. Good timing to help anyone other than making everyone scared to death.

The graph of cases for Omicron and some lingering Delta is showing signs of DECREASING. But, right now that is a fairly large drop in NY, Ct. R.I., and (I believe New Jersey). It is down about 7% in Florida and about 6 other states. It is STILL unchanged in many states or even increasing in the Dakotas, Wisconsin, and maybe a few others.
..... BUT, the main takeaway is that the decrease for the whole US is happening SLOWLY. So that there IS going to be a need for testing for MONTHS. Now, whether there really is a NEED for this type of testing is NOT for me to speculate on. That is ABOVE my pay grade.

[Boomer]

Originally Posted by blueash

The home covid antigen tests have an extremely low rate of false positives. Those who claim otherwise are not telling you the truth. An improperly obtained sample will not give a false positive, but it may give a false negative. A study of nearly one million rapid antigen tests done on symptom free people in Canada where all positive tests on the rapid were then tested with PCR found that the false positive rate was 0.05% of all tests done.
That for the math challenged is 50 out of 1 million tests. [edit, math error, it is 500]

So the person who wrote
"Watch the case number grow 1000% in the next 2 weeks.......all the false positives.."

is lying about what will happen with home testing even IF the results were being reported. And s/he is wrong about reporting. There is no, zero, zilch, nada obligation for the reporting of these at home Covid tests.

Local or state health departments may be able to accept your report. AFAIK there is no Federal agency that will accept reports from consumer use. We can guess what the state of Florida will do about wanting to know the number of positive cases.

So the truth is

1, The at home test if positive is overwhelmingly a true positive not a false positive especially during a period of high rates of disease
2. Because patients can now test at home, the real number of cases being reported is much more likely to be falsely lowered. Those who would have been tested in labs and thus obligated to be reported will NOT have their data collected.
3. There is no required reporting of positive, or negative at home tests. Some states or counties may actively encourage voluntary reporting, some will keep their heads in the sand and not encourage reporting.
4. If your at home test is negative that is nice but not strong proof. The rate of false negative especially from poor test technique with nasal swabbing is considerable. A negative result is probably more accurate when you are symptomatic rather than just as a screening test.


If you believe you have Covid and knowing your status is important because you would want monoclonal treatment or you have exposed a high risk person, the PCR test which is not rapid is a better test for determining you are really negative. Nonetheless the screening test is a good test.


As to this comment
"Exactly, I have zero confidence they will be accurate, just another waste of taxpayer money."

Your confidence would add nothing to the situation. The test is the test. Its accuracy, both false positives and negatives is established. Whether you care to believe in science over your gut feelings does not change reality.

Dr. blueash,

I am always respectful of your posts. I appreciate your sharing of your medical knowledge.

Thank you.

(I bet your patients miss you. )

Boomer

[blueash]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

Actually, I have a feeling there is a problem with this study that showed a 0.05% false positive rate. From the article:

"Researchers from the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management published their peer-reviewed findings in the journal JAMA earlier this month. They looked at the results of more than 900,000 rapid antigen tests conducted over 537 workplaces in Canada between January and October 2021.

During this period, Canada had two significant waves of COVID-19 driven by the Delta variant. A total of 1,322 positive results were logged with rapid tests. Of these cases, 1,103 also had data from a PCR test to compare against.

In total, 462 rapid test results, or 0.05 per cent of the 900,000 results, resulted in false positives. This represents 42 per cent of the positive test results in the study."

I just find it unlikely that they only had 1,322 positive results out of 900,000 tests---that equals a positivity rate of 0.1468%, when we have been running positivity rates in the US of 20, 30, and even 40+% in some areas. Then, the "false positive" tests were 462, representing, yes, 0.05 of 900,000 but a whopping 42% of the positives. So, in other words, if your home test was positive, there is a 42% chance it is false, not 0.05%. I would think further studies are needed.

Nice to see you read the study. I really cannot speak to the question of why the Canadian study had a low positivity rate other than to say that Canada has been extremely vigorous, or perhaps vigourous, in quarantine, masking, distancing, and convincing its citizens to take Covid seriously. The study was done in businesses on healthy persons. This did not involve people being tested because they were ill. Most of our positive Covid tests are on people with some symptoms or a defined exposure.

Secondly, as you read the study you already know how the authors explained the 42% figure, which you cite but don't explain. While the tests were done in several hundred locations, 60% of the false positives came from just 2 testing locations, from a single manufacturer and a single lot which led the authors to believe it was a faulty batch of tests. If you throw out the bad batch, which we should not when looking at data as it happens, then the rate of false positives falls to 200 out of nearly a million.

For those interested in reading the study... HERE

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by blueash

Nice to see you read the study. I really cannot speak to the question of why the Canadian study had a low positivity rate other than to say that Canada has been extremely vigorous, or perhaps vigourous, in quarantine, masking, distancing, and convincing its citizens to take Covid seriously. The study was done in businesses on healthy persons. This did not involve people being tested because they were ill. Most of our positive Covid tests are on people with some symptoms or a defined exposure.

Secondly, as you read the study you already know how the authors explained the 42% figure, which you cite but don't explain. While the tests were done in several hundred locations, 60% of the false positives came from just 2 testing locations, from a single manufacturer and a single lot which led the authors to believe it was a faulty batch of tests. If you throw out the bad batch, which we should not when looking at data as it happens, then the rate of false positives falls to 200 out of nearly a million.

For those interested in reading the study... HERE

I saw that, and the researchers believed that 278 of the false positives were related to faulty tests. But then, we have to subtract 278 from both the numerator and denominator (462-278=184/1322-278=1056) which yields a 17.4% false positive rate----you still can't use 900,000 as the denominator. So, throwing out the tests the researchers thought were defective, there's still a 1 in 6 chance that your positive home test is really negative.

[PaPaLarry]

How long does it take to get results?

[mtdjed]

Originally Posted by PaPaLarry

How long does it take to get results?

Perhaps I have missed it but are these tests going to be accepted for foreign travel COVID test requirements. If they are as accurate as stated in these posts, wouldn't they be better than getting tested at sites such as CVS and others that report results three days later.

Just think of all the people we could hire at MCO to monitor that each person properly pokes their nose and properly handles their kit disposal. Oh, I forgot, nobody needs to monitor proper use because nobody monitors CVS drive through self-testing, but TSA blindly accepts those test results to safely fly.

Don't forget to wash your hands with soap and hot water for 20 seconds before testing, just like you do in the drive through tests.