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The primaries just started. Maybe Trump will get the nomination. Maybe not. With Bush quitting, his voter base will likely go to Rubio. That will put him over the top of Cruz and even with Trump. We still have two other candidates that will likely be leaving shortly. Their votes will also go to either Rubio or Trump. The contest is just starting to warm up.
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I agree. Even if the remaining supporters are evenly split it will leave Trump over Rubio by a small margin and Cruz in third a a good way behind. If Cruz then drops out, it's will boost Rubio over the top. If he selects Kasich as his running mate, they win the White House easily.