The unemployment rate, just annouced, dropped in July for the first time in 15 months 9.4% down from 9.5%

Good News

http://www.usatoday.com/

Did they report how many people fell off the charts because their unemployment ran out like they did during the last administration? How come they don't report the "real" figures which is the total of people who have fallen off the charts plus the people who have given up the job search? Why have they stopped reporting those figure?
Remember the media's mantra of the "jobless recovery" during the 2002- 2005 economy recovery?
Hmmmmmmmmmmm

As long as the procedure and numbers included are consistent, the calculation of a "jobless rate" can be compared from one period to the next to determine a trend. That's the principal purpose of the number, not to measure precisely what the unemployment level is.

It looks like the recession has bottomed out and we may be on the way back up. Hopefully that's the case. The stock market is always a leading indicator of economic activity and it began it's climb out of the doldrums 3-4 months ago.

Originally Posted by cologal

The unemployment rate, just annouced, dropped in July for the first time in 15 months 9.4% down from 9.5%

Good News

http://www.usatoday.com/

I agree that it is good news. However, let's take it with a bit of caution. The 0.1% change is well within the margin of error. It could easily be 9.6% and just as easily 9.2%. We have a habit of looking at numbers as truth without considering small things such as confidence levels and ranges. I truly hope we are seeing a bottoming out of the economy, but will hold off celebrating until we see much more evidence.

Originally Posted by Villages Kahuna

As long as the procedure and numbers included are consistent, the calculation of a "jobless rate" can be compared from one period to the next to determine a trend. That's the principal purpose of the number, not to measure precisely what the unemployment level is.

It looks like the recession has bottomed out and we may be on the way back up. Hopefully that's the case. The stock market is always a leading indicator of economic activity and it began it's climb out of the doldrums 3-4 months ago.

I agree, a lot of the indicators seem to point to a bottoming out of the recession. Time will tell, but it's certainly worth keeping an eye on. The optimist in me thinks a slight recovery has begun.

the glass is half full....

Hopefully this is the end of the employment rate climbing. What concerns me is some of the comments from the so called experts who are predicting that we will not see rates below 8% until the end of 2011. For those looking for work that does not bode well.

Originally Posted by Villages Kahuna

As long as the procedure and numbers included are consistent, the calculation of a "jobless rate" can be compared from one period to the next to determine a trend. That's the principal purpose of the number, not to measure precisely what the unemployment level is.

It looks like the recession has bottomed out and we may be on the way back up. Hopefully that's the case. The stock market is always a leading indicator of economic activity and it began it's climb out of the doldrums 3-4 months ago.

What I said is that they always had two figures as the unemployment rate a couple years ago. When the unemployment rate was say 8% the media would always say that the figure was actually higher...maybe 10%. I can't remember the formula but they know the actual number. The figures are there...but only selectively used.

The evening news tonight covered the variables associated with the unemployment %'s.

Originally Posted by Keedy

What I said is that they always had two figures as the unemployment rate a couple years ago. When the unemployment rate was say 8% the media would always say that the figure was actually higher...maybe 10%. I can't remember the formula but they know the actual number. The figures are there...but only selectively used.

The governments own admission for years has been that 4% is full employment, everyone inside that number is not looking for work, unable to work, etc. So the real unemployment is 6%