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-   -   CDC director "our data from the CDC -- vaccinated people do not carry the virus" (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/current-events-news-541/cdc-director-our-data-cdc-vaccinated-people-do-not-carry-virus-318168/)

Rooklift 04-02-2021 10:09 AM

You are not confused. They are.

Bill14564 04-02-2021 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Byte1 (Post 1925148)
The graphs fail to show reality. The graphs are based on the amount of positive test results, not how many NEW infected. If one person shows a positive result, then that person returns over and over again for testing until they show a negative result. Each one of those test results are counted as an additional infected. The test results and the reporting system are both flawed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tmarkwald (Post 1925153)
Yeah, it's been like that since the start of this whole ordeal.

My entire family has Covid in January (we found out via antibody tests in April when the tests frst came out)

Well, an antibody test that is positive also is a Covid-19 indicator. We tested monthly, so I have, myself contributed 12 positives to the counter personally, and my family nearly 50 positives...even though Covid tests are negative...

Now what will be interesting is if I have an actual positive Covid test, now that I am vaccinated as well.

Lots of things may get me, but I am doing my best to ensure it isn't this virus!

Here are three sites which give the number of tests administered to be more than 360M (more than one for every US citizen):
Statista
COVID tracking project
JHU

Both the COVID tracking project and the JHU page give the number of cases in the neighborhood of 30M. The COVID tracking page gives the number of individuals who tested negative as 75M.

30M cases + 75M negative individuals = 100M tests

Two thirds of the tests performed are not being counted as cases or individuals who test negative. Either that is due to data being tossed on the ground or that is due to data being de-duplicated. In either case, there is nothing that indicates that multiple positive tests from the same person are counted as separate cases.

tuccillo 04-02-2021 10:33 AM

I believe it is more accurate to say that everyone who has had both shots will experience a small probability that the vaccine will not protect them against asymptomatic infection or infection with mild symptoms. The vaccine appears to be drive the probability of severe disease or death to near zero for everyone who has had both shots. Of course, with J&J it is one shot.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tmarkwald (Post 1925185)
Correct - we know that 4% of the people who receive the vaccine are not actually vaccinated. The comment 'fully vaccinated' means that they had both shots.

The article also states that this is perfectly normal in ALL vaccines.


IADCathy 04-02-2021 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoMar (Post 1924680)
Might be because only 15% of the US Population have been vaccinated. That leaves 85% (I'm a math wizard) of us are vulnerable and can spread the virus. Trying to protect that 85% until they are fully protected requires masks, social distancing, hand washing etc. Until that happens travel restrictions, masks on airplanes and trains and in unknown groups need to be continued. Your question is apples and oranges.

The question is "can vaccinated people carry the virus." That is apples to apples.

Kirk Bell 04-02-2021 11:52 AM

Check out California COVID rules!

Tmarkwald 04-02-2021 11:54 AM

Fully vaccinated people may travel, CDC says

justjim 04-02-2021 12:11 PM

Unfortunately wearing a mask became “political” early on in the pandemic. That said, you will likely see people wearing masks during the flu season long after the pandemic has been put to rest. I’ve got use to a mask and personally don’t see it any more an issue than wearing a seatbelt. I remember how people resisted wearing them. According to Google it is estimated 90.7% of adults now use seatbelts. Not required in New Hampshire.

coffeebean 04-02-2021 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Debra Freeman (Post 1924926)
Because people are getting ill from variants of Covid after being vaccinated. The stats are not in as to why this is happening but it’s been all over the news.

I just read an article that the Pfizer vaccine is covering the variant from South Africa extremely well. The article was linked in another forum and I can't recall which one so, I apologize for not providing a link. I will say I was extremely encouraged when I read that though.

I don't know if my assumption is very wrong but.....I do assume that what ever Pfizer claims about their vaccine, that the Moderna vaccine also must do the same, whether it is good news or bad news. As an example....I assume the Moderna vaccine also protects against the South African variant. Hope I'm not wrong about that.

Tmcbryan 04-02-2021 12:55 PM

Word Use
 
I believe that the words "Suggest" and "Suggesting" show that the evidence is not 100% and other possibilities exist,

Pachine58 04-02-2021 01:16 PM

Did you read the side of the box the masks came in? Masks do not stop the virus. And vaccine, they have no idea how long they last or how effective they are on people. It’s all a crap shoot.

Tmarkwald 04-02-2021 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pachine58 (Post 1925306)
Did you read the side of the box the masks came in? Masks do not stop the virus. And vaccine, they have no idea how long they last or how effective they are on people. It’s all a crap shoot.

oh boy, got the kool-aid?

coffeebean 04-02-2021 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by villageuser (Post 1924945)
She said, “LARGELY”. That does not mean “WILL DEFINITELY NOT”. Since one does not know if they are in the “largely” camp or in the “oops, it didn’t work for me” camp, we should all continue to wear our masks and social distance as recommended for vaccinated people.

By the way, i wanted to have an antibody test done to see if the vaccine had been effective for me, but my doctor would not approve it. He said an antibody test only tells you if you’ve had the virus. Since the three vaccines depend on memory B and T cells also to work, the antibody count does not provide the correct picture to determine one’s immunity level.

My understanding is a fully vaccinated person will develop antibodies only when they are exposed to the virus. The mRNA vaccines make your body recognize the Covid virus then the immune system springs into action and calls up the T cells and B cells which launch a full on attack against the virus and that includes producing antibodies to attack the virus. Those antibodies will not be detected in a blood test unless you are exposed to the virus.

If I have this incorrect, will one of you physicians help me out here? Thanks.

Tmarkwald 04-02-2021 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by coffeebean (Post 1925310)
My understanding is a fully vaccinated person will develop antibodies only when they are exposed to the virus. The mRNA vaccines make your body recognize the Covid virus then the immune system springs into action and calls up the Tcells and B cells which launch a full on attack against the virus and that includes producing antibodies to attack the virus. Those antibodies will not be detected in a blood test unless you are exposed to the virus.

If I have this incorrect, will one of you physicians help me out here? Thanks.

I think you nailed it - that's how I understand it as well. It's also interesting as this month my antibodies are finally gone, after nearly a year. But my exposure was 14 months ago. And I am fully vaccinated.

coffeebean 04-02-2021 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eg_cruz (Post 1924957)
Not true.....people all over the US and the world are contracting the Covid virus weeks after being fully vaccinated, two in WA died. This is not a 100% fix, so just because you have been vaccinated dose not mean you are save from getting the virus.....they have told you that from day one.

This from ABC news about those who have contracted Covid in WA........

Of 1.2 million fully vaccinated people in Washington state, 100 have gotten COVID-19 - ABC News

Sorry to hear that have been deaths of fully vaccinated people. The two in WA were over 80 with underlying conditions. I guess these vaccines are not a guarantee that a person can not get severe disease. Sad to hear this news but I still feel very safe.

LiverpoolWalrus 04-02-2021 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stephen.q.pankow (Post 1924682)
Just a guess here, but the most likely explanation that I can think of is that since there's no way to readily tell if someone has been vaccinated or not, the decision to wear a mask or not would be on the honor system. Her and Fauci's concern isn't so much that people who have been vaccinated will spread the virus, it's more that people who haven't been vaccinated will no longer feel the social pressure to wear a mask, and that they'll be the ones spreading it.

You hit the nail on the head. And that's the politics behind this guideline that we all continue to wear masks regardless. That the virus can be spread by vaccinated people is a myth to perpetuate mask wearing by everyone, in my opinion.

Otherwise, if vaccinated people stopped wearing masks, so would some unvaccinated people, because we don't know who's received the vaccines and who hasn't. The only way to keep unvaccinated people masked is to say that everyone can still carry the virus and pass it on whether they've been vaccinated or not.

Nothing is ever as it seems.

coffeebean 04-02-2021 02:58 PM

~~~~

coffeebean 04-02-2021 03:03 PM

~~~

Having difficulty quoting a post and it quoting properly. I've tried twice and I give up.

Stu from NYC 04-02-2021 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pachine58 (Post 1925306)
Did you read the side of the box the masks came in? Masks do not stop the virus. And vaccine, they have no idea how long they last or how effective they are on people. It’s all a crap shoot.

When the vaccine is about 95% effective it is more than a crap shoot.

tuccillo 04-02-2021 03:49 PM

Not true, the developers have a very good idea of how effective the vaccines are on people. They run clinical trials with a sufficient sample size that they can perform statistically significant hypothesis testing. The Pfizer and Moderna trials showed that the probability of experiencing symptoms (check the trial reports for the exact definitions) is reduced by 20x when compared to the control group (no vaccine). There is no crap shoot involved. The probability that you will experience severe disease if you are vaccinated is essentially reduced to zero.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pachine58 (Post 1925306)
Did you read the side of the box the masks came in? Masks do not stop the virus. And vaccine, they have no idea how long they last or how effective they are on people. It’s all a crap shoot.


Pairadocs 04-02-2021 03:53 PM

[QUOTE=DeanFL;1924674]I'm CONFUSED. So if we get the vaccine (we have) WHY does Fauci and others STILL insist that we must wear masks (two), restrict travel and other activities etc etc. EVEN with SCIENCE apparently countering with scientific data - clinical trials and real-world data - HER WORDS. What ?????

You're "confused" ? Well, that is exactly what you are supposed to be. In any community or any language it's call CYA. The point in NOT to be wrong under any circumstances and, at all costs, protect your own rise to "prominence" in your field. It's the most common stance today rather in medicine, research, academia, or business fields, and, if that is your career goal, it is VERY important to understand how to negotiate this mine field.

While it was once true, people do not "accidentally", through their own dedicated work or natural ability, become "THE" top expert in their field; such as Anthony Fauci, at $418K, the highest paid government employee in 2019, more than the U. S. president. Not an accident of "fate", it's a planned career path that requires planning and many mentors beginning in graduate school (usually post M.S. or M.A. level, but not always). It also involves hiring a public relations person or firm to "push" your research and publications once you have managed to get a few things published in the various related journals in your field. It all has to be carefully choreographed now.

Of course an obscure oceanographer, or bio-chemist, or space engineer can still make an outstanding discovery and instantly rise to national prominence, but today's path is more typically a carefully developed plan much like entertainers and actors follow to reach "stardom", and involving professional public relations firms, agents, etc. Same for the biggest name authors, not just a serious of fortunate "accidents" any more if you wish to progress to the top of your profession.

Unfortunately, it is up to each individual to recognize this and try not to be "confused". It is regrettable that such useful skills as: logical analysis, recognition of propaganda (remember, "good or bad", propaganda is propaganda, if you do not really understand what it really is you are at great risk to become confused and worse), skills to recognize "emotionally laden" language (such as in a commercial that says, "YOU DESERVE a new Buick" or fill in the blank with any brand, and the many other skills we USED to teach in public schools beginning at the 6th, or even 5th grade level. Now, no time in the curriculum for this type of thing. Fewer and fewer of each generation learning some the the most important life skills in favor of more politically expedient areas and social-cultural topics. Many are confused with what they hear today (maybe better put what they are TOLD today) , you are definitely not alone in your confusion, that's the plan !

Have you noticed Fauci's latest P.R. "tour" of the various media this week ? All centered on making sure he covers ALL bases when asked directly about the "mask thing", making sure to cover that we may well have to always wear masks, or we may get to the point that it's no longer necessary. He is an absolute MASTER of saying nothing if you listen intently to the EXACT words he chooses, he and so many others. Successful "stars" in any field learn quickly how to speak so that anything can be turned 360 at any new turn of events. One additional "assignment", next time any of them speak, concentrate on how effectively they are able to side step a very direct question they do not want to answer (Fauci was recently confronted with a very false statement he made about efficiency of transmission) and he immediately said "HONESTLY (???) I am so busy with my responsibilities to keep people safe, I really don't have TIME to get into all the things said about me."

Translation: when caught in a lie or an intentional misleading statement meant to (what ? increase my renown or my finances ?), I will simply laugh it off with the attitude that I am so important I really don't' have time to answer/defend nonsense like that. Works for politicians too ... hey, maybe he is also a politician ?

Happinow 04-02-2021 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TNLAKEPANDA (Post 1925008)
There is a lot of misinformation and missed information out there. No one is talking about or even concerned about the long term effects of the vaccine! No one has a clue and that’s scary especially since they are not true vaccines. If you are interested in some medical options that are not Dr Fauci brainwashed check out Dr Mercola’s new letter. At least you will be educated and have various opinions.

Spot on...the lab animals died from this experimental vaccine. It’s just that...an experiment and we are the labs rats this time around....at least many are. Those who have done their homework know not to get it.

coffeebean 04-02-2021 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TNLAKEPANDA (Post 1925008)
There is a lot of misinformation and missed information out there. No one is talking about or even concerned about the long term effects of the vaccine! No one has a clue and that’s scary especially since they are not true vaccines. If you are interested in some medical options that are not Dr Fauci brainwashed check out Dr Mercola’s new letter. At least you will be educated and have various opinions.

Dr. Mercola = QUACK

Dr. Joseph Mercola Ordered to Stop Illegal Claims | Quackwatch

petiteone 04-02-2021 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeanFL (Post 1924674)
I'm CONFUSED. So if we get the vaccine (we have) WHY does Fauci and others STILL insist that we must wear masks (two), restrict travel and other activities etc etc. EVEN with SCIENCE apparently countering with scientific data - clinical trials and real-world data - HER WORDS. What ?????

......................................
The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in a new interview celebrated data suggesting that those who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 largely "do not carry the virus."

CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told MSNBC's Rachel Maddow on Monday that "our data from the CDC today suggests that vaccinated people do not carry the virus" or get sick.

"It's not just in the clinical trials, but it's also in real-world data," she added.

Her comments seemed to be in reference to a CDC study released earlier on Monday that examined Moderna's and Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccines and found that in real-world conditions, they reduced the risk of infection by 90 percent two or more weeks after the second dose was administered. The CDC said the study demonstrated that the vaccines "can reduce both asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections."

Though Walensky expressed optimism over this finding and said "we can kind of almost see the end" of the pandemic based on the rate of vaccinations in the United States, she also reiterating her concern about COVID-19 cases ticking up.

"What I really would hate to have happen is to have another oncoming surge just as we're reaching towards getting so many more people vaccinated," she said.

Walensky had previously expressed similar concerns on Monday about a potential fourth surge in COVID-19 cases, saying in a briefing she has a feeling "of impending doom" while urging Americans to "please hold on a little while longer."
.
.

CDC director: Data suggests vaccinated people largely 'do not carry the virus'

https://twitter.com/therecount/statu...185100232.html

Vaccinated individuals could still get COVID from unvaccinated people spreading it. The variants are now the problem and more to come until more people get vaccinated.

Aloha1 04-02-2021 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Debra Freeman (Post 1924926)
Because people are getting ill from variants of Covid after being vaccinated. The stats are not in as to why this is happening but it’s been all over the news.

Not true. Source please?

Bill14564 04-02-2021 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aloha1 (Post 1925368)
Not true. Source please?

Some few people have become infected with Covid after being vaccinated. That is what the report that prompted this thread was all about.

There was no mention of variants in that particular report.

donassaid 04-02-2021 05:28 PM

Because the vaccines and mask wearing are FAKE SCIENCE. Now we are being told that the vaccine won't protect against "variants", may only last 6 months, will not keep you from getting the virus, etc. How gullible can you be to believe anything put out by the CDC and Fauci who have been wrong about everything? All for a virus with a 99% survival rate.

coffeebean 04-02-2021 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chuckpedrey (Post 1925031)
Read the February 2021 issue if Imprimis. The article is adapted from a speech that Dr. Scott Atlas delivered at a Hillsdale College National Leadership Seminar in Phoenix, Arizona on February 18, 2021

Dr. Scott Atlas=QUACK with a capital Q

Aloha1 04-02-2021 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gobragh (Post 1924969)
There are people that have been fully vaccinated that have gotten COVID-19

Name one

Aloha1 04-02-2021 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by coffeebean (Post 1925376)
Dr. Scott Atlas=QUACK with a capital Q

Your proof?? Only verified medical sites please.

Aloha1 04-02-2021 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill14564 (Post 1925371)
Some few people have become infected with Covid after being vaccinated. That is what the report that prompted this thread was all about.

There was no mention of variants in that particular report.

Very few and mostly minor or asymptomatic with not enough vireii to infect anyone. An awful lot of chicken littles on this thread.

Bill14564 04-02-2021 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aloha1 (Post 1925378)
Name one

I don't know the names of any of the 3,950 people in the study that prompted this thread and therefore I don't know the names of the 44 who became infected after being vaccinated... but they exist.

Bill14564 04-02-2021 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aloha1 (Post 1925382)
Very few and mostly minor or asymptomatic with not enough vireii to infect anyone. An awful lot of chicken littles on this thread.

"Very few" : that's the point of the vaccine, isn't it?

(BTW: Very few > 0)

"mostly minor or asymptomatic with not enough vireii to infect anyone" : Was there an appendix to the study that I didn't see (or are you making that up)?

"chicken littles" : Those with facts that don't fit your desired narrative?

Bill14564 04-02-2021 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by donassaid (Post 1925375)
Because the vaccines and mask wearing are FAKE SCIENCE. Now we are being told that the vaccine won't protect against "variants", may only last 6 months, will not keep you from getting the virus, etc. How gullible can you be to believe anything put out by the CDC and Fauci who have been wrong about everything? All for a virus with a 99% survival rate.

Brandolini's law

jimjamuser 04-02-2021 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeanFL (Post 1924674)
I'm CONFUSED. So if we get the vaccine (we have) WHY does Fauci and others STILL insist that we must wear masks (two), restrict travel and other activities etc etc. EVEN with SCIENCE apparently countering with scientific data - clinical trials and real-world data - HER WORDS. What ?????

......................................
The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in a new interview celebrated data suggesting that those who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 largely "do not carry the virus."

CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told MSNBC's Rachel Maddow on Monday that "our data from the CDC today suggests that vaccinated people do not carry the virus" or get sick.

"It's not just in the clinical trials, but it's also in real-world data," she added.

Her comments seemed to be in reference to a CDC study released earlier on Monday that examined Moderna's and Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccines and found that in real-world conditions, they reduced the risk of infection by 90 percent two or more weeks after the second dose was administered. The CDC said the study demonstrated that the vaccines "can reduce both asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections."

Though Walensky expressed optimism over this finding and said "we can kind of almost see the end" of the pandemic based on the rate of vaccinations in the United States, she also reiterating her concern about COVID-19 cases ticking up.

"What I really would hate to have happen is to have another oncoming surge just as we're reaching towards getting so many more people vaccinated," she said.

Walensky had previously expressed similar concerns on Monday about a potential fourth surge in COVID-19 cases, saying in a briefing she has a feeling "of impending doom" while urging Americans to "please hold on a little while longer."
.
.

CDC director: Data suggests vaccinated people largely 'do not carry the virus'

https://twitter.com/therecount/statu...185100232.html

In YOUR OWN 2nd paragraph you have the ANSWER to YOUR own thread, "the CDC said that those who are vaccinated, LARGELY do not carry the VIRUS. The word LARGELY means most but not 100% do NOT carry CV. In fact, 90% of those vaccinated do not carry CV but 10% can carry it. You may be vaccinated but you or 10% like you CAN carry and infect others. It is 90% unlikely that you DO carry it (that is the LARGELY WORD). But with a 10% likelihood that you infect your friends, children, or grandchildren - are you WILLING to take that risk. Probably NOT. Do your grandkids feel lucky? That abundance of caution is why the CDC is saying to REMAIN VIGILANT by masking and distance EVEN AFTER getting the vaccine. Certainly, we owe that to our grandkids and others. Also, the 15% that have been vaccinated need to act as model LEADERS to help the other 85% keep from spreading the Pandemic. The CV cases are increasing in the US and Florida. Florida is one of the worst!

jimjamuser 04-02-2021 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neils (Post 1924685)
With vaccine there no spread. With vaccine almost no risk of serious illness

Without vaccine need to continue masks even though risk becomes lower the younger you might be

Children under 12 are showing no signs of getting sick or becoming carriers of this virus.

Thats the latest science and data.

Now, do whatever makes YOU feel better.

An entire 3rd grade class at The Villages Charter School is under QUARANTINE. They are 10-year-olds.

talleyjm 04-02-2021 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by charmed59 (Post 1924755)
Actually, it’s 40 and over, going to 16 and over April 7th. Two weeks ago it was incredibly easy to get a vaccine. Signup at saferestart, signup at myvaccine.fl.gov, call your doctor, login to Publix at 7am Mon, wed, fri. Scan availability at Winn Dixie, Walmart, Sam’s Club, CVS, Walgreens. Lots of options.

We never jumped onto the vaccine panic train - we never got up at 5:30 a.m. with multiple electronic devices, to spend 2+ hours, three times a week scrambling for an appointment at Publix, or drove far afield in search of the vaccine. We waited patiently and had faith. We’ve both had our shots. Yesterday I was approached by a pharmacy tech while shopping in Walmart who asked me if I wanted to get a vaccine shot because a number of folk were no shows! My husband was approached by a woman with a clipboard while he was pitching horseshoes asking him if he wanted to sign up for an appointment to get vaccinated! Have faith, social distance, wear a mask when prudent and most of all, CHILL❗️This too will pass.

jimjamuser 04-02-2021 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boomer (Post 1924700)
According to stats I have heard recently, the boomers and beyond have a high percentage getting vaccinated. And — hospitalizations are way down in this age group.

But — there is a rise in hospitalizations among people in their 30s and 40s.

Some of the younger age group simply have not had the chance to get the vaccination yet.

Some still think they are invincible.

And, of course, there must be a small percentage with a legit reason not to vax up.

But many others are the “muh freedoms” bunch with probably also a correlation to how much influence their constant, poison, Facebook feeds have in their lives.

When we are out and about, we can cross paths with a lot of 30 and 40-somethings so I will continue to wear a mask in public places.

This is a learning curve. I cannot figure out how some people can’t use their own brains to think this thing through and see that we are experiencing a learning curve, so we need to pay very close attention to the science and do the best we can — which is what Fauci & Co. are doing. But noooooo, some gotta go ‘round always loaded for bear.

We can get there — unless Pogo is proved to be right in this one, too.

We were recently invited to a little party later in the month — of only vaccinated guests — and that’s just fine with me — we won’t be wearing masks.

Boomer

Well, do you know if you are in the 90% group or the 10% group? That is the question! Want to risk it?

talleyjm 04-02-2021 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by coffeebean (Post 1924760)
Some people just want to berate Dr. Fauci every chance they get. Thank you for his explanation which, seriously, everyone should have already known if they would just put on their thinking cap. This is not rocket science, folks.

I’ll take my chance now to berate him then. “Wee Fauci” as I call him is a political hack. And I said that with my thinking cap on.

jimjamuser 04-02-2021 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 1924785)
100% correct and I agree wholeheartedly

And I agree with BOTH Mr. Golfing and JoMar.

jimjamuser 04-02-2021 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tmarkwald (Post 1924875)
one in ten chance of catching Covid after being vaccinated? Definately not that. Not sure what the one in ten is referring to..

However, the testimony was the chance of catching covid is nearly impossible, or rather no known cases after the waiting period, as real world studies show -in other works, after the successful vaccination the chance is effectively zero.

Not true!


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