[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by roscoguy

This the same old pot, stirred by the same trolls. The comparison to Sweden (where the government didn't institute a lock down) didn't work out so well, so now let's compare COVID to ________ (fill in the blank). In these days of the internet, you can find an 'expert' - some very well-respected, others much less so - to back up any theory you like. (The one about Bill Gates , presented in an earlier post to this thread is a prime example. )

We still hope that long-lasting herd immunity applies to Covid-19; but the simple fact is that nobody knows. It sure doesn't seem to have worked out well for Sweden. Sweden hoped herd immunity would curb COVID-19. Don'''t do what we did. It'''s not working.
The Mayo Clinic, WebMD & others aren't quite so rosy about the theory either:
Herd immunity and COVID-19 (coronavirus): What you need to know - Mayo Clinic
Herd Immunity: What Is It and Can It End The Coronavirus Pandemic?
Sweden shows why herd immunity for coronavirus won'''t work in America - Business Insider

You are trying hard and at least you come up with links but unfortunately they are either old and out of date or just completely wrong. Also, calling people trolls if they have a different view is contrary to the rules here and usually means a weak argument is coming.

Mayo clinic link: June 6
Business Insider link: May 15

The opinion piece in USA Today is recent but appears to be written with an agenda as they leave out a lot of facts. Their biggest mistake is believing the estimate that less than 10% of Swedes have antibodies. Read this article at the NYT about antibody testing and you will understand things much better.

Your Coronavirus Antibodies Are Disappearing. Should You Care?

All three articles you cite make no mention of very recent T cell research which shows huge percentages of people (50-80%) having T cell cross immunity from previous exposure to other coronaviruses. The T cell immunity does not go away, they found it viable 17 years after SARS infections. This T cell immunity does not show up in an antibody test. It does show up in charts in places like New York and Sweden, where death and cases went up to a peak and then fell approaching zero, despite the fact that one place had lockdowns and masks and the other did not. Despite the fact that neither place had confirmed cases over 5% of their population. So far I have gotten zero comments that can explain this every time I post it.



Comparing deaths rates and totals in different countries is more complicated than you think. Just because countries are neighbors does not mean they are comparable.

1. travel and tourism: Virus was seeded across the world by travelers. Places with more travelers from certain places got seeded with more virus. Sweden gets more travelers than Norway and Finland

2. How they count covid 19 deaths: Some countries, like USA and Sweden count virtually every death as covid 19 if the person was positive. Many countries only count it if covid 19 is the actual cause of death. Some countries, like Norway, do not count nursing home deaths or deaths outside of hospitals, Since nursing home deaths account for 50% or more of all covid deaths, this is like giving yourself automatic one puts on 9 out of 18 holes. "guys! look at my score" 60-70% of covid 19 deaths in Sweden were from nursing homes.

3. Ethnic groups: 18% of Swedens deaths were Somalis, which represent .69% of Sweden's population. Why? Because they did not follow basic social distancing guidelines and live in large multi generational family groups crammed into small apartments.

The only way to untangle the mess of inconsistent stats and differences between strategies is to look at excess deaths from covid 19. How many extra deaths over the yearly average of deaths from all causes. I will try to find some.

Sweden got hit hard, but when you compare their death rate per million (547) to other countries and US States, they don't even make the top 10

1. New Jersey 1757 deaths per million
2. New York 1665
3. Connecticut 1220
4. Massachusetts 1206
5. Rhode Island 921
6. Belgium 853
7. DC 805
8. Louisiana 733
9. United Kingdom 659
10. Michigan 632

Many countries and US States are seeing a new surge of cases and deaths. Sweden cases and deaths per day are heading towards zero with no surge. They may end up looking good when all is said and done.

The NYT wrote an article called "A cautionary tale" slamming Sweden, but the real cautionary tale was sitting right under their noses.

https://fee.org/articles/why-sweden-...w-york-failed/

[Bucco]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

You are trying hard and at least you come up with links but unfortunately they are either old and out of date or just completely wrong. Also, calling people trolls if they have a different view is contrary to the rules here and usually means a weak argument is coming.

Mayo clinic link: June 6
Business Insider link: May 15

The opinion piece in USA Today is recent but appears to be written with an agenda as they leave out a lot of facts. Their biggest mistake is believing the estimate that less than 10% of Swedes have antibodies. Read this article at the NYT about antibody testing and you will understand things much better.

Your Coronavirus Antibodies Are Disappearing. Should You Care?

All three articles you cite make no mention of very recent T cell research which shows huge percentages of people (50-80%) having T cell cross immunity from previous exposure to other coronaviruses. The T cell immunity does not go away, they found it viable 17 years after SARS infections. This T cell immunity does not show up in an antibody test. It does show up in charts in places like New York and Sweden, where death and cases went up to a peak and then fell approaching zero, despite the fact that one place had lockdowns and masks and the other did not. Despite the fact that neither place had confirmed cases over 5% of their population. So far I have gotten zero comments that can explain this every time I post it.

Attachment 85480

Comparing deaths rates and totals in different countries is more complicated than you think. Just because countries are neighbors does not mean they are comparable.

1. travel and tourism: Virus was seeded across the world by travelers. Places with more travelers from certain places got seeded with more virus. Sweden gets more travelers than Norway and Finland

2. How they count covid 19 deaths: Some countries, like USA and Sweden count virtually every death as covid 19 if the person was positive. Many countries only count it if covid 19 is the actual cause of death. Some countries, like Norway, do not count nursing home deaths or deaths outside of hospitals, Since nursing home deaths account for 50% or more of all covid deaths, this is like giving yourself automatic one puts on 9 out of 18 holes. "guys! look at my score" 60-70% of covid 19 deaths in Sweden were from nursing homes.

3. Ethnic groups: 18% of Swedens deaths were Somalis, which represent .69% of Sweden's population. Why? Because they did not follow basic social distancing guidelines and live in large multi generational family groups crammed into small apartments.

The only way to untangle the mess of inconsistent stats and differences between strategies is to look at excess deaths from covid 19. How many extra deaths over the yearly average of deaths from all causes. I will try to find some.

Sweden got hit hard, but when you compare their death rate per million (547) to other countries and US States, they don't even make the top 10

1. New Jersey 1757 deaths per million
2. New York 1665
3. Connecticut 1220
4. Massachusetts 1206
5. Rhode Island 921
6. Belgium 853
7. DC 805
8. Louisiana 733
9. United Kingdom 659
10. Michigan 632

Many countries and US States are seeing a new surge of cases and deaths. Sweden cases and deaths per day are heading towards zero with no surge. They may end up looking good when all is said and done.

The NYT wrote an article called "A cautionary tale" slamming Sweden, but the real cautionary tale was sitting right under their noses.

Why Sweden Succeeded in “Flattening the Curve” and New York Failed - Foundation for Economic Education

Direct from a Libertarian website .

You have the right....I prefer medical info from medical sites, not those with a P motive.

[Bucco]

This is a serious situation and not one for silly and dangerous games for some motive...


Dark money and PAC'''s coordinated '''reopen''' push are behind doctors''' viral hydroxychloroquine video

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by Bucco

Direct from a Libertarian website .

You have the right....I prefer medical info from medical sites, not those with a P motive.

LOL It's not a medical info article. The only medical info presented was a chart comparing Sweden to New York deaths. Do you not think this chart is accurate?



The reason that the New York Times would pick Sweden as a "cautionary tale" when their own state's covid 19 death toll per million is the second highest in the entire world is easy to figure out unless you are 100% gullible. New York State put their citizens through a severe lockdown that caused 1000s of bankruptcies, historic unemployment and economic chaos and it didn't do a thing to stop the virus. New York killed more people in their nursing homes than the total deaths in Sweden.

When you're ugly don't look in the mirror.

One of the countries that actually has the numbers to look down their noses at Sweden is Norway. Here's what their Health Minister said recently.

Norway health chief claims coronavirus could have been controlled without lockdown.

Reflecting on the decision to shut Norway’s schools, which began reopening last month, Stoltenberg has concluded that “the scientific backing was not good enough”.

Norway health chief claims coronavirus could have been controlled without lockdown | The Week UK

[GoodLife]

duplicate post removed

[Bucco]

Folks need to be very very careful in relying on internet sites with this virus.

"WASHINGTON — Russian intelligence services have been spreading disinformation about the coronavirus pandemic, according to newly declassified intelligence, material that demonstrates how Moscow is continuing to try to influence Americans as the election draws closer."


Russian Intelligence Agencies Push Disinformation on Pandemic - The New York Times

[tvbound]

\\##

[tvbound]

You would think that most people would, by now, be much more cautious and do more research about what they read on the internet, after it's been proved how active many other countries are in trying to mess around and influence us with false information. Apparently not?

[Moderator]

Topic is comparison of 1957 virus to current COVID. Please return to topic or the thread will be closed.

Moderator

[Bucco]

Originally Posted by Moderator

Topic is comparison of 1957 virus to current COVID. Please return to topic or the thread will be closed.

Moderator

Point well taken. To explain, I believe the dependence on medical science in 1957 , and lack of any P interference is a very large piece of the comparison. Much because we had no internet, but we trusted the voice of the professionals and they had no interference at all.

This is serious, and. unlike 1957, we have zero direction.

Outside, and outside is defined as...outside our country, and outside the trusted medical folks, interference is daily and adds to the already tense situation.

I lived through 1957, and other real scares (HS grad in 57), and there was great comfort in the messages we received.

But, I will leave it be, that comparison is important, and reading graphs to support ones P bent is not helpful.

I apologize to the mods if I stepped out of line, but all my posts were intended to highlight what I think is a major difference,
.

[anothersteve]

Originally Posted by Bucco

This is serious, and. unlike 1957, we have zero direction.

.

It may not be the direction you would like to take, or think, but there is direction.

Steve

[Nick B]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

Attachment 85425

Why do certain people defend the virus so vigorously? Should you feel better if you died from the Regular flu?

[Lottoguy]

I can assure you they did NOT wear masks or social distance back in 1957. One can only imagine how many more deaths we would have right now if we had not done this.

[Lottoguy]

They didn't wear masks or social distance in 1957. Why can't people understand how this has helped us at this point? They were not tougher, the human body is still the same.

[Two Bills]

Originally Posted by Lottoguy

I can assure you they did NOT wear masks or social distance back in 1957. One can only imagine how many more deaths we would have right now if we had not done this.

Agree on that.
Even the medics in our unit did not wear any protection in '57.
As for social distancing, it was never even mentioned or given a thought.