[Two Bills]

Every country that had cases of the virus peaked then fell.
Many are now getting a second dose, and numbers rise again, and when it is under control, they will fall again.
Can't see this as earth shattering, or something to brag about regarding predictions.
Seems pretty obvious to me.
Up, then down.
Just like the Stock Market.
Even a dumbo like me can work that out!

Another point of view regarding herd immunity.

Coronavirus: Spanish study casts doubt on herd immunity feasibility - BBC News

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by Two Bills

Every country that had cases of the virus peaked then fell.
Many are now getting a second dose, and numbers rise again, and when it is under control, they will fall again.
Can't see this as earth shattering, or something to brag about regarding predictions.
Seems pretty obvious to me.
Up, then down.
Just like the Stock Market.
Even a dumbo like me can work that out!

Another point of view regarding herd immunity.

Coronavirus: Spanish study casts doubt on herd immunity feasibility - BBC News

LOL I didn't just predict that cases would start going down, I predicted WHEN they would start going down, missed it by one day. Please quote anyone back in early July that predicted this. If it was so obvious why didn't you predict it?

As far as your link to the article about Spain, perhaps you did not read the NYT article I posted in the OP about antibody tests. They are not very accurate, some of them look for the wrong antibodies, or have poor calibration. Doesn't matter anyway, your T cells have long memories and can produce new antibodies when needed. Please actually read the article so you can understand.

Your coronavirus antibodies are disappearing . Should You Care? - Times of India

Then read about T cells and immune responses here

T cells found in COVID-19 patients ‘bode well’ for long-term immunity | Science | AAAS

[EdFNJ]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

LOL I didn't just predict that cases would start going down, I predicted WHEN they would start going down, missed it by one day.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by Two Bills

NYT! My first stop for medical information!

Would you prefer to read the actual science that article is based upon? It's more technical but will tell you the same thing. The article quotes several immunologists and epidemiologists directly. Do you dispute their conclusions?

CDC says the same thing, antibody tests highly inaccurate

Antibody tests for Covid-19 wrong half the time, CDC says - CNN

Interim Guidelines for COVID-19 Antibody Testing | CDC

[Hoosierb4]

GoodLife, I do hope that you are right....but, I'd wait a couple of weeks before claiming the prize. The last couple of days have been influenced by the tropical storm, with some testing sites closed down. That will continue to be the case for a few more days. There are still a lot of places in Florida, and in the country, where we are nowhere near the number (whatever it is) that is needed for herd immunity .

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by Two Bills

Every country that had cases of the virus peaked then fell.
Many are now getting a second dose, and numbers rise again, and when it is under control, they will fall again.
Can't see this as earth shattering, or something to brag about regarding predictions.
Seems pretty obvious to me.
Up, then down.
Just like the Stock Market.
Even a dumbo like me can work that out!

Another point of view regarding herd immunity.

Coronavirus: Spanish study casts doubt on herd immunity feasibility - BBC News

I will make this real easy for you. Forget all the competing theories and models and highly technical science studies. Take a look at this chart that shows the death totals per day of Sweden superimposed over New York. New York's death rate was 3 times higher but that does not matter, this is not a "who did better" question.

New York enacted a severe lockdown on March 14 and recommended everyone to use masks two weeks later. Their deaths went up rapidly anyway, peaked, and then started going down.

Sweden stayed open, did not lockdown or recommend masks, just advised mild social distancing. Their deaths went up rapidly, peaked, and then started going down.

In both places this rise and fall took the same amount of time. In both places there is no new surge, and deaths and cases are close to zero.

Tell us in your own words how this could happen. Even a dumbo can figure this out. I am not calling you a dumbo, just using it in general like you did.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by Hoosierb4

GoodLife, I do hope that you are right....but, I'd wait a couple of weeks before claiming the prize. The last couple of days have been influenced by the tropical storm, with some testing sites closed down. That will continue to be the case for a few more days. There are still a lot of places in Florida, and in the country, where we are nowhere near the number (whatever it is) that is needed for herd immunity .

The downward trend started almost 3 weeks ago. I noticed it two weeks ago and waited till yesterday to see if it was continuing down. Because of Isaias testing numbers went down for 3 days but that has little effect on the three week trend. The percent positive of total tests is also trending downward. This number is actually probably 1-2 points high because many labs continue posting 100% positives and no negatives, which skews the percent positive number higher. But it is going down anyway. Notice that yesterday, will full testing resumed, positivity was just over 8%



As I noted in the OP, herd immunity is geographical so I advised Villagers to continue staying safe. I am still a modified Howard Hughes and since this may take another 2 months to wind down here in Florida, plan on doing the same.

The surges in Texas and Arizona look to have started falling as well. We just have to be patient.

[npwalters]

Well researched and presented. This is TOTV and we are discussing COVID 19 so there is always going to be some pushback. Once panic sets in people just cling to their position no matter what.

The take away you quoted and that many of us have said for some time - and also backed by some very talented scientist, doctors, and statisticians - is "the virus is gonna do what it's gonna do".

This is true for lockdowns and wearing masks. These measures will "flatten the curve" but not stop the virus from running its course.

My VERY lay mans 2 cents worth.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by npwalters

Well researched and presented. This is TOTV and we are discussing COVID 19 so there is always going to be some pushback. Once panic sets in people just cling to their position no matter what.

The take away you quoted and that many of us have said for some time - and also backed by some very talented scientist, doctors, and statisticians - is "the virus is gonna do what it's gonna do".

This is true for lockdowns and wearing masks. These measures will "flatten the curve" but not stop the virus from running its course.

My VERY lay mans 2 cents worth.

Masks and lockdowns don't seem to work much at all. Look at New York, locked down March 14 recommended masks 2 weeks later. Result, 2nd highest deaths per million in the world.

The Phillipines has been locked down tight for 4 months and is the most mask compliant country in the world.

Result? Virus does it's thing anyway

[billethkid]

Soon approaching acceptable annual infection/death rates just like the flu....cancer....heart attacks.....automobile accidents.

[chet2020]

Originally Posted by billethkid

217 views and not on single response!?

My biggest fear for the future is the lack of involvement of the average American in too many issues of significance.....even when anonymous.

So we are to conclude what?

This thread needs to be bumped back to page one.

Maybe people aren't replying because it's long and people don't have time to read it. I did a quick scan, it seems he predicted virus cases in Florida would peak, then decline. And that's what happened, just like every other virus outbreak in history. So congrats to him, I guess.

[EdFNJ]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Antibody tests for Covid-19 wrong half the time, CDC says - CNN

This post you linked is from MAY 26th. That's like 100 virus years ago. Things change in 10 weeks. 1 week = 10 virus years.

BULLETIN: IBM ANNOUNCES FIRST PC: IBM PC Announcement 1981

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by EdFNJ

This post is from MAY 26th. That's like 100 virus years. Things change in 10 weeks.


BULLETIN: The first personal computer is out! Today in Media History: First successful PC goes on sale in ’74 and helps launch Microsoft – Poynter

CDC still has same info on antibody test on website today, nothing has changed. There are no new antibody tests.

They aren't very reliable and not a good way to test populations for virus exposure. Antibodies fading away doesn't matter anyway, read the info on t cells memory, cross exposure etc etc

Or just look at the Sweden/NY graph. Virus stops at a certain point of infection percentage of population.

[npwalters]

Originally Posted by chet2020

Maybe people aren't replying because it's long and people don't have time to read it. I did a quick scan, it seems he predicted virus cases in Florida would peak, then decline. And that's what happened, just like every other virus outbreak in history. So congrats to him, I guess.

So...you didn't have the 5 minutes to actually read it but you have an opinion on it? LOL

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by chet2020

Maybe people aren't replying because it's long and people don't have time to read it. I did a quick scan, it seems he predicted virus cases in Florida would peak, then decline. And that's what happened, just like every other virus outbreak in history. So congrats to him, I guess.

This is getting tiresome. I didn't just say cases would peak and then decline. I predicted WHEN they would decline. I did this on July 7 and said it would happen before the end of the month. At that time the media was blaring headlines that Florida was "the next New York" and "the epicenter" NOBODY was predicting this.

I invite you to find anyone in early July predicting that the surge would start to fall before the end of the month. I'll be waiting for any quotes you can supply.