[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

We don't yet know if this uptick in cases is a true second wave or just a statistical blip on the radar. However, based on the last several days of posts on TOTV, it looks like the second wave of paranoia has already begun.

Disagree with this statement. FL never had a first wave like the northeast due to the seasonal activity differences. With the virus spread primarily indoors, in the northeast, Feb/Mar/Apr were relatively cold monthly, and people were aggregating indoors and spread the virus. At that time, in FL, activities were mostly outside with little spread. Now in the north, there is little indoor activities and mostly outdoor activities, where the spread is reduced. Down here, people are now migrating indoors for air conditioning, as its very hot outside, which promotes spread of the virus. Hat tip Coachk for picking up on that subtle point by Desantis this afternoon.

So, that is why the South has not been as infected as the North over the same time period, but the behaviors are reversing and the South is spreading due to more indoor activities to escape the heat. So this surge is effectively the south's first wave, which makes the south luckier in that the more deadly virus which kills its host and has a shorter life span, has a faster diminishing R0, and not as prevalent and the less deadly or milder is the current most persistent virus.

However, Friday, Fauci also said that this type of virus with such large variation of outcomes, has never been seen before in infectious disease studies. So don't assume that there are any guarantees of simple or safe outcomes just because the average age of infections is trending towards the average age of the population, the only assumption is better treatments for most serious shorter hospital stays. Apparent mild cases are still ending up dead at home.

And these statements are not paranoia, just data points and analysis from individual outcomes, and medical observations and analysis, as reported in a hospital setting by Coachk, who reviews individual deaths many times a week for statutory reporting. And CoachK listens in every morning on senior staff conference calls at the medical center, discussing all aspects of the hospital current daily status and updates.

sportsguy

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Originally Posted by golfing eagles


Disagree with this statement. FL never had a first wave like the northeast due to the seasonal activity differences. With the virus spread primarily indoors, in the northeast, Feb/Mar/Apr were relatively cold monthly, and people were aggregating indoors and spread the virus. At that time, in FL, activities were mostly outside with little spread. Now in the north, there is little indoor activities and mostly outdoor activities, where the spread is reduced. Down here, people are now migrating indoors for air conditioning, as its very hot outside, which promotes spread of the virus. Hat tip Coachk for picking up on that subtle point by Desantis this afternoon.

So, that is why the South has not been as infected as the North over the same time period, but the behaviors are reversing and the South is spreading due to more indoor activities to escape the heat. So this surge is effectively the south's first wave, which makes the south luckier in that the more deadly virus which kills its host and has a shorter life span, has a faster diminishing R0, and not as prevalent and the less deadly or milder is the current most persistent virus.

However, Friday, Fauci also said that this type of virus with such large variation of outcomes, has never been seen before in infectious disease studies. So don't assume that there are any guarantees of simple or safe outcomes just because the average age of infections is trending towards the average age of the population, the only assumption is better treatments for most serious shorter hospital stays. Apparent mild cases are still ending up dead at home.

And these statements are not paranoia, just data points and analysis from individual outcomes, and medical observations and analysis, as reported in a hospital setting by Coachk, who reviews individual deaths many times a week for statutory reporting. And CoachK listens in every morning on senior staff conference calls at the medical center, discussing all aspects of the hospital current daily status and updates.

sportsguy

Time will tell. Look for the hospitalizations and deaths about 2 weeks from now and see if it parallels the "new" case rate.

I don't agree that you can dismiss March and April by denying it was the "first wave". It's not possible to compare the severity of the initial pandemic in different locations. Florida was less severe than New York for multiple reasons, just as NY was less severe than Northern Italy at the same time.

And no one suggested that your analysis is "paranoia". I define paranoia as driving alone in you car with the windows up and a mask on---whatever THAT is supposed to accomplish. Or a foursome that went by a few days ago, all in individual carts, all wearing a mask, even though the outdoor human to human transmission rate with social distancing appears to be 0.07%. Some guy in Raleigh, NC was driving alone with a N95 mask, he must have retained CO2, possibly due to underlying COPD, and drove his car into a tree. At least he didn't spread COVID-19.

Again, time will tell. Stay safe.

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Originally Posted by golfing eagles


Disagree with this statement. FL never had a first wave like the northeast due to the seasonal activity differences. With the virus spread primarily indoors, in the northeast, Feb/Mar/Apr were relatively cold monthly, and people were aggregating indoors and spread the virus. At that time, in FL, activities were mostly outside with little spread. Now in the north, there is little indoor activities and mostly outdoor activities, where the spread is reduced. Down here, people are now migrating indoors for air conditioning, as its very hot outside, which promotes spread of the virus. Hat tip Coachk for picking up on that subtle point by Desantis this afternoon.

So, that is why the South has not been as infected as the North over the same time period, but the behaviors are reversing and the South is spreading due to more indoor activities to escape the heat. So this surge is effectively the south's first wave, which makes the south luckier in that the more deadly virus which kills its host and has a shorter life span, has a faster diminishing R0, and not as prevalent and the less deadly or milder is the current most persistent virus.

However, Friday, Fauci also said that this type of virus with such large variation of outcomes, has never been seen before in infectious disease studies. So don't assume that there are any guarantees of simple or safe outcomes just because the average age of infections is trending towards the average age of the population, the only assumption is better treatments for most serious shorter hospital stays. Apparent mild cases are still ending up dead at home.

And these statements are not paranoia, just data points and analysis from individual outcomes, and medical observations and analysis, as reported in a hospital setting by Coachk, who reviews individual deaths many times a week for statutory reporting. And CoachK listens in every morning on senior staff conference calls at the medical center, discussing all aspects of the hospital current daily status and updates.

sportsguy

hmmm outside bars, boating, golf,beaches , malls , peace demonstrations , what indoor activities are we talking about even here in the villages many of us are active outside all day

[Joelack99]

Yes, this is the middle of the first wave.

What has become apparent is that transmission rates are different depending on how people act. If we continue to act as we have been, the virus will be totally out of control, much like a forest fire, and will eventually burn out (assuming immunity you get from surviving it lasts for awhile, NOT proven,) but do terrible damage (read many will die) in the process. Not paranoia, math.

The “reproductive rate” of the virus is between 2.5 and 6 if you do nothing, meaning each infected person will infect that many more people. At R0=1, the epidemic doesn’t grow or shrink, so we have to do whatever it takes to reduce that number. Cloth masks are ~60% effective, essential but not good enough by itself. (2.5 times .6 is still >1)

Social distancing improves this, so if most people wear masks, the R0 rate can be brought below 1, according to those pesky scientists who spend their entire lives studying these things. This is the only way we get our epidemic in control. The math is simple and clear.

Wear the mask. Socially distance. Be patient. If the outbreak is bad enough, stay home, no matter how much you hate it.

The alternative is really, really, ugly.

[PennBF]

I think the statistics on it spreading is a little scary! A question I would have is why
do you think the Village newspaper stopped and continues to avoid publishing the
the data on where it is popping up more. (e.g. counties, etc). That would be helpful
to the Residents to know? Have any idea's??

[CoachKandSportsguy]

And there goes the younger narrative:
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
still the first wave. . .

interesting how links now may or may not show up properly. here is the url without the linking, which was showing up and then disappeared. . . so the bloomberg link inserted the Are you a robot after I saved. . but the link should still work. . .

sportsguy

[CoachKandSportsguy]

As far as who publishes what statistics, there are multiple interpretations of data, analytics and statistics. . . always the ability to segregate and twist the data to tell a narrative. There are also biases with any and every commercial enterprise. . I have spend too many years in corporate america watching the machine make saugage, so assume that there are commercial reasons for not publishing data, and assume that the publishers don't want a perceived outcome or a responsibility for the article.

The worst are the stock market explanations for why the market goes up or down in any particular day. I have a predictive model which identified particular days which go up and then which go down, regardless of the news. So when the prediction comes true as in the pattern has repeated the same way for 20 years, and the narrative is different every time, why do really listen to the publicized reasons?

Likewise, having been an insider in several companies, and having worked on valuation of companies for buying and selling, what the general public hears or reads is usually only a very small piece of the reality inside. So unless you have "reliable" insider information, which is not illegal, then you really are only getting a desired narrative. Same with medical narratives, same with corporate marketing narratives, same with financial results narratives, same with political narratives.

Best to work on one's handicap instead of relying on commercial enterprise news.

sportsguy

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by charlieo1126@gmail.com

hmmm outside bars, boating, golf,beaches , malls , peace demonstrations , what indoor activities are we talking about even here in the villages many of us are active outside all day

What you are doing is generalizing a narrative scenario, and those options are available, true, but not everyone is living and working that scenario all the time, all day long, especially with the current heat index. Indoor gyms, indoor restaurants, indoor pro shops, indoor salons, indoor supermarkets, at some point or another, the news has reported that these types of places have been reported to have infections, not all at once, and not all of them, for the black and white thinkers who tend to see only binary all or nothing outcomes. . . but as the governor pointed out over the weekend, the transition to more indoors for air conditioning to avoid the heat is creating more infections throughout the state.

which is why we are leaving to travel north as soon as we are ready. . . because wife working in a medical center up north has seen hospital demand higher than capacity, and has had field medical stations set up in a convention center to accomodate the overflow.

When that happens in FL, you will know that your are near or at the peak of the first wave. Just hope you aren't one of them in the overflow, and they are flying in medical staff to support the overflow, because there is not regularly planned pandemic overflow staffing just waiting to go to work in a risky environment.

good luck

sportsguy

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

And there goes the younger narrative:
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
still the first wave. . .

interesting how links now may or may not show up properly. here is the url without the linking, which was showing up and then disappeared. . . so the bloomberg link inserted the Are you a robot after I saved. . but the link should still work. . .

sportsguy

There goes the younger narrative? Complete nonsense. The median age of new cases in Florida has been between 32 and 37 for more than two weeks now. The median age of new cases in March, April, May was 55-60. Know why? Because back then they were testing only people with symptoms. 70-80% of covid 19 cases under 60 years old are asymptomatic, so until recently the only people that age who got tested were the ones with some preexisting condition like hypertension etc.

As of today, 86% of all covid 19 cases in Florida have been under 65 years old. 85% of all deaths in Florida have been from cases of people over 65 years old. They are the ones the disease can kill easily.

This epidemic has always been driven by the young and asymptomatic. We are just finding out about them now because of mandatory workplace testing, mandatory testing if you go to ER or hospital, give blood etc etc. One day if we do antibody tests on everyone, we will find that millions and millions more were exposed to covid 19, never got sick or had symptoms.

And of course the surge of young aged cases will infect some older people. They always have. But the uptick in over 65 new cases is small compared to the uptick in younger aged people. Why do you think the median age of new cases dropped 20-25 years?

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_pa...rts_latest.pdf

[GoodLife]

I wonder why this happened in Minnesota?

[martynpat]

Does it matter which wave it is? It is serious and warrants being vigilant and careful at all times. Masks and distancing are good and should be among everyone's weapons to fight this virus.

[Beyond The Wall]

Fauci has been right less then 50% of time. Not creditable . Neither are CDC and WHO. Inside spread is valid. However rioting and protesting were DEFINITELY trigger points. Data showing that you can not stop the spread, just try to control rate.
As aside, King Cuomo is an ass! Just saying

[Irishmen]

Read yesterday doctors sent in 10 qty placebo test, they all came back positive. Fake names fake everything all came back positive. You sheep being played.

[Dana1963]

It’s been over 1 month since demonstrations/riots the protesting cities are not showing the spikes we are seeing in Az, Tx Fl. Here in the Villages we survived about 60 days with closures. We are now open and many idiots dropped their guard what they have learned and are infected. All that was suggested social distancing wear a mask BUT to many here it was a joke.

[Mendy]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Originally Posted by golfing eagles


Disagree with this statement. FL never had a first wave like the northeast due to the seasonal activity differences. With the virus spread primarily indoors, in the northeast, Feb/Mar/Apr were relatively cold monthly, and people were aggregating indoors and spread the virus. At that time, in FL, activities were mostly outside with little spread. Now in the north, there is little indoor activities and mostly outdoor activities, where the spread is reduced. Down here, people are now migrating indoors for air conditioning, as its very hot outside, which promotes spread of the virus. Hat tip Coachk for picking up on that subtle point by Desantis this afternoon.

So, that is why the South has not been as infected as the North over the same time period, but the behaviors are reversing and the South is spreading due to more indoor activities to escape the heat. So this surge is effectively the south's first wave, which makes the south luckier in that the more deadly virus which kills its host and has a shorter life span, has a faster diminishing R0, and not as prevalent and the less deadly or milder is the current most persistent virus.

However, Friday, Fauci also said that this type of virus with such large variation of outcomes, has never been seen before in infectious disease studies. So don't assume that there are any guarantees of simple or safe outcomes just because the average age of infections is trending towards the average age of the population, the only assumption is better treatments for most serious shorter hospital stays. Apparent mild cases are still ending up dead at home.

And these statements are not paranoia, just data points and analysis from individual outcomes, and medical observations and analysis, as reported in a hospital setting by Coachk, who reviews individual deaths many times a week for statutory reporting. And CoachK listens in every morning on senior staff conference calls at the medical center, discussing all aspects of the hospital current daily status and updates.

sportsguy

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