[rustyp]

December jobs reports has Wall Street starting to talk about rate hikes in 2025

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by rustyp

December jobs reports has Wall Street starting to talk about rate hikes in 2025

The 10 year treasury interest rate also hit a high from a a long period of time, and inflation is showing signs of stickiness, making the fed's focus on the labor market, which has been leveling off, more risky for the bond vigilantes. So the spread widening between that and the 3mo/1yr rate is the term premium rising. Search on term premium rising

Yellen has been funding the government deficit with short term notes, and the new admin is expected to move the funding out to longer duration, increasing longer term interest rates and bond holders are getting out ahead of the expected issuances. . so treasury bond holders are losing and markets are losing. . .

in bull markets you buy on the rumor, and sell on the news
in bear markets you sell on the rumor, and buy on the news

Watch TLT and IEF . .

if the past market cycles work, the current sell off bottom is around 5575 +/- 10/20 points on the SP500. . . depending of course on the tariff scenario. . only 4% from here. . 5% or so from the last high, pretty standard bull market correction . . . assuming a bull market. .

good luck out there
we all need it. .

[It's Hot There]

Short-term emotional response.

Wait a week, new news, new emotion.

Feels like ToTV has talking heads just like cable news.

[Boomer]

Originally Posted by It's Hot There

"so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained"

.

Originally Posted by It's Hot There

Short-term emotional response.

Wait a week, new news, new emotion.

Feels like ToTV has talking heads just like cable news.

And. . .looks like you’re in here with us. Kind of fun, isn’t it? Welcome.


Btw, we are pretty much all old enough to have seen decades of the market — and we also have sense enough to know we are just into the conversation when the topic shows up on TOTV.

It’s all conversation. That’s it.

Boomer

[manaboutown]

FEARS OF A GREAT INVESTOR

Great investor David Giroux has cut way back on stocks and increased bonds in his top performing T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund. He explains why stock prices are scary and bonds look better than most stocks in 2025.

From: FEARS OF A GREAT INVESTOR – WealthTrack

[It's Hot There]

Originally Posted by Boomer

And. . .looks like you’re in here with us. Kind of fun, isn’t it? Welcome.


Btw, we are pretty much all old enough to have seen decades of the market — and we also have sense enough to know we are just into the conversation when the topic shows up on TOTV.

It’s all conversation. That’s it.

Boomer

[ithos]

There are securities for hedging and bear markets too:

SQQQ ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
UVIX 2x Long VIX Futures ETF
QID ProShares UltraShort QQQ
SPXU ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500
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Inverse/Short ETF List
Just a moment...

But I doubt anyone will be tempted.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Boomer

Thanks. I had never bothered to know the name of that arrogant windbag who is on in the morning on CNBC. When I read your post, I looked him up. Yep. It's Joe Kernen.

You are right. He needs to go. Joe Kernen not only talks too much, he is especially into talking over top of women. He was so incredibly rude to a woman who was a guest one day recently that I composed a complaint to CNBC -- but like a lot of those things I compose in my head, it remains there. He interrupted her constantly and just kept on blathering his opinions. He is old enough to remember that 70s term "Male Chauvinist Pig" and whether he realizes it or not, he comes across as a perfect example of one when he is sharing the screen with a smart woman. Maybe that's his schtick. I am sure it flies just fine with like-minded dinosaurs in the viewing audience.

Joe Kernen is the reason I turn CNBC OFF when he is on. . .

Anyway, thanks for the Bloomberg suggestion. I will see if I can find it.

Boomer

Yes, Joe Kernan is pretty full of himself. Jim Cramer made me want to strangle myself and he was not even good at picking stocks. I could more relate to Guy Adami.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Boomer

I'm baaaaack. Yes, I know what you mean. Shilling for Bitcoin is pathetic. Actually, Bitcoin gives me the creeps, always has — and getting even creepier by the day.

Now that I have looked up Kernen’s pedigree, I have to think he has fallen into what is basically schtick. He knows where his appeal lies and has chosen to join the circus.

I don't like Cramer either. He affects me like fingernails on a blackboard. He’s another loudmouth ego boy, so I don't hang around when he comes on. I just don't like clowns in general. Maybe I have coulrophobia, but I don't think it's that. I just know one when I see one.

Conseulo Mack on PBS WealthTrack is more my style. She interviews some big deal people from the world of finance each week and lets them talk and then ends the show with a question asking for a word of advice for now. Her shows can be found at wealthtrack.com, most recent title was "Fears of a Great Investor" with some guy from T. Rowe Price. Before that were two parts with Jason Zweig. She has Christine Benz on from time to time. In the half hour show, you can pick up information without the clown effect.

Boomer

I always turn the channel when Jim Cramer is on.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Appears the Fed is forecasting crude price reduction induced slower inflation in the future, and started focusing on the employment level, which is being affected by the slowness of the housing industry, and the resulting durable goods growth. Consumable goods should stay relatively strong due to salary increases being higher than goods inflation.

The market is reacting to a bit of over leveraged optimism of future growth, based upon local results. However, this little equity tantrum has both a bit of interest rate rise / bond price decline towards future growth, which is really the bond markets view of the debt and government spending and borrowing under the new administration. Although the view of reducing govt spending is ideal, the results and other issues like tax rate adjustments might just make the issue worse, depending upon timing and implementation of new rates.

I would posit that the government spending debt levels and the change of government leadership has a bit more influence on the future uncertainty of a major portion of market returns going forward. Remember that if government spending falls, GDP will contract / fall as well. See Argentina. . . right now both bonds and stocks are overvalued, so there is only money market to hide out in. . which has a positive return versus some other investments..

so be careful what you wish for. .

Many threads here one sells houses when the prices are very high and can rent and then buy again when house prices are low. many threads are waiting for lower prices to buy. . same with stocks in qualified accounts where there are no tax consequences. Remember, the future is uncertain, just more uncertain that at other times.

With respect to "tax rate adjustments", the one that i would be interested in is where the upper 1% have to pay income taxes at a 90% rate. I am NOT holding my breath.

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

With respect to "tax rate adjustments", the one that i would be interested in is where the upper 1% have to pay income taxes at a 90% rate. I am NOT holding my breath.

When did they ever pay that rate? Oh, that's right... Never...

[rustyp]

Stock market today: Nasdaq, S&P 500 sink amid cratered hopes for 2025 rate cuts

[Caymus]

S&P 500 hit an all-time high midday. The sell off will have to wait for another day or week or month

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by Caymus

S&P 500 hit an all-time high midday. The sell off will have to wait for another day or week or month

Seems like even the Bear-boys have pushed the sell-off off to 2026.

[ithos]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Seems like even the Bear-boys have pushed the sell-off off to 2026.

Nvidia passes Apple again to become world’s most valuable company
Access Denied

Tim Cook needs to get on the ball. AI is king in this market.