[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by mikempp

Warren Buffet is afraid, he is like 75% in cash i read.

Not even close....................less than 30%

[HJBeck]

It does unless the stuff is in an IRA, then no impact on taxes.

[manaboutown]

The Stock Market Is Doing Something Witnessed Only 3 Times in 153 Years -- and History Is Very Clear What Happens Next

[Caymus]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Not even close....................less than 30%

Plus, he has $Billions in wholly owned subsidiaries with non-traded stock.

[ithos]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Market Timing Experts???

They do exist. Ever heard of Michael Bury? Also Joe Kennedy Sr was famous for timing the market before the Great Depression. It usually coincides during peaks of euphoria or pessimism.

But most who attempt it do fail.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by ithos

They do exist. Ever heard of Michael Bury? Also Joe Kennedy Sr was famous for timing the market before the Great Depression. It usually coincides during peaks of euphoria or pessimism.

But most who attempt it do fail.

Did you put 401K money into an SP500 fund while working?
if so you were a systemic investor, your system consisted of buying the market without regard to price or risk level.

Did you rebalance your IRA with your financial advisor at any time?
You are an infrequent market timer, changing your investment risk profile.

Did you move out of stocks into bonds or cash and then back to stocks at any time?
If so, you are an infrequent market timer.

Should you be in the stock market at all?
Yes, as the overall market has a positive return expectancy, depending upon your personal unique situation

Why?
Because the US labor force contributes a hell of a lot of systemic buying into their 401K monthly, regardless of valuation, causing the market general level of rising valuation. The US based type of public company ownership capitalism has one goal for every company: become a monopoly and have the stock market value your company in the trillions now. .

Will it continue?
Yes, until the RMD outflows exceeds the employment contributions. . ie, technology efficiency from reducing employees continually reduces 401K systemic market buying and Social Security inbound payments, increasing the risk to your retirement income.

Will the market continue to work as it has in the past?
It will work until it doesn't, there will be signs prior to the market stop functioning, but they will be subtle and most will miss the signs.

Will many make money until then?
Yes, because of the above reasons. .

GL2U

Good Luck to Us!

[Boomer]

Plutocracy. Kakistocracy.

What could possibly go wrong with the economy.

Guardrails gone. Dereg without regard. Jobs slashed. Bridge projects over before they begin. Food industry with worsening shortages of workers. Healthcare a mess. On and on and through and through the economy — the effects will be felt by all of us.

The markets have always been unpredictable. As Buffett said, “Beware of geeks bearing formulas.” I have never bothered with all that analysis.

But as far as a feel goes, mine is that the ship is headed into uncharted waters like none we have ever seen before.

Boomer
























.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by Boomer

Plutocracy. Kakistocracy.
What could possibly go wrong with the economy.

Guardrails gone. Dereg without regard. Jobs slashed. Bridge projects over before they begin. Food industry with worsening shortages of workers. Healthcare a mess. On and on and through and through the economy — the effects will be felt by all of us.

The markets have always been unpredictable. As Buffett said, “Beware of geeks bearing formulas.” I have never bothered with all that analysis.

But as far as a feel goes, mine is that the ship is headed into uncharted waters like none we have ever seen before.
.

reads true, and ominous. . well stated
increasing risk to the economy and therefore the market?
reducing equity exposure seems like a prudent step. .

But Buffett is not infallible, and doesn't represent the average investor.
He is driven completely by opportunistic valuation, buying cheaply as possible, and buying when the market is distressed at times. . He also has a legacy and could be feeling his mortality coming soon, or just realizing that his investments are fully valued and have little room for continued growth.. .


Source: S&PGlobal public documents tracking historical quarterly SP500 earnings

Note: Berkshire Hathaway's Q2 2022 $66.9 billion "unrealized investment" loss (mostly non-cash-flow) decreased the S&P 500 EPS by approximately $4.74 per share and the Financial sector by $6.04 per share

Note: Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 2023 $23.5 billion "unrealized investment" loss (mostly non-cash-flow) decreased the S&P 500 EPS by approximately $2.82 per share and the Financial sector by $2.81 per share


hmmm, $90B loss, . . . using his guidance is good if you are at his level of investing, sadly, I am not. . though trying and continuous education / improvement is always good.

[manaboutown]

Well, a significant portion of my equity portfolio is in BRK as back in the mid 1980s I bought a few shares, set it aside and forgot about it figuring Warren could do better with it than I could. I have not been disappointed. Over the years I also bought some stalwart standards and index funds and have held onto them. I see no reason to sell and pay taxes as most are in taxable accounts. What I have done is retain most of the proceeds received from recent real estate sales in cash, T-bills, money market funds and such. I see BRK taking a bit of a hit when Buffett bows out or checks out, so to speak, but I plan on holding onto it all as if I sold my LTCGs would be enormous.

[manaboutown]

Originally Posted by Boomer

Plutocracy. Kakistocracy.

What could possibly go wrong with the economy.

Guardrails gone. Dereg without regard. Jobs slashed. Bridge projects over before they begin. Food industry with worsening shortages of workers. Healthcare a mess. On and on and through and through the economy — the effects will be felt by all of us.

The markets have always been unpredictable. As Buffett said, “Beware of geeks bearing formulas.” I have never bothered with all that analysis.

But as far as a feel goes, mine is that the ship is headed into uncharted waters like none we have ever seen before.

Boomer

My greatest concerns are the huge national debt and our disappointing (to say the least) public school systems which have been declining since the SAT scores peaked during the early 1960s. Student scholastic performance has gone downhill ever since. The decline became so blatantly and embarrassingly obvious the SAT was dumbed down in 1994. Today most colleges need to offer remedial English and Math courses to incoming students. The future does look grim.

Of course a large war could erupt or we could be hit with another pandemic. My father got and survived the Spanish Flu in 1918 but it killed more people that did The Great War. One just never knows.

An easy to read classic written about investors' experiences during the Great Depression era is "Where are the Customers' Yachts?" by Fred Schwed Jr. I found it rather chilling.

[ithos]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

Well, a significant portion of my equity portfolio is in BRK as back in the mid 1980s I bought a few shares, set it aside and forgot about it figuring Warren could do better with it than I could. I have not been disappointed. Over the years I also bought some stalwart standards and index funds and have held onto them. I see no reason to sell and pay taxes as most are in taxable accounts. What I have done is retain most of the proceeds received from recent real estate sales in cash, T-bills, money market funds and such. I see BRK taking a bit of a hit when Buffett bows out or checks out, so to speak, but I plan on holding onto it all as if I sold my LTCGs would be enormous.

I don't believe that the 94 year old Buffett is still heavily involved in the decision making process of where to invest. But he did have the wisdom to put together an excellent team to carry on implementing his successful investment strategy.

[ithos]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

My greatest concerns are the huge national debt and our disappointing (to say the least) public school systems which have been declining since the SAT scores peaked during the early 1960s. Student scholastic performance has gone downhill ever since. The decline became so blatantly and embarrassingly obvious the SAT was dumbed down in 1994. Today most colleges need to offer remedial English and Math courses to incoming students. The future does look grim.

Of course a large war could erupt or we could be hit with another pandemic. My father got and survived the Spanish Flu in 1918 but it killed more people that did The Great War. One just never knows.

An easy to read classic written about investors' experiences during the Great Depression era is "Where are the Customers' Yachts?" by Fred Schwed Jr. I found it rather chilling.

I do share your concern about the educational achievements for the average student but the top tiers of the younger generations are as brilliant of any that have gone before. I doubt they have relaxed the standards to get into MIT, Caltech or Stanford.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

Well, a significant portion of my equity portfolio is in BRK as back in the mid 1980s I bought a few shares, set it aside and forgot about it figuring Warren could do better with it than I could. I have not been disappointed. Over the years I also bought some stalwart standards and index funds and have held onto them. I see no reason to sell and pay taxes as most are in taxable accounts. What I have done is retain most of the proceeds received from recent real estate sales in cash, T-bills, money market funds and such. I see BRK taking a bit of a hit when Buffett bows out or checks out, so to speak, but I plan on holding onto it all as if I sold my LTCGs would be enormous.

Long term investment in the USA is the best world wide investment choice one can make in today's world. With the SP500, about 60% of the sales are domestic, and 40% international, from memory, rounded and could be precisely wrong at the current moment. But the point of the stat is that embedded within the SP500 are well run international companies, which diversifies the US domestic only view into a global investment.

Buffet / Berkshire Hathaway is no different, offers mostly US domestic growth, is industry diversified, and has excellent management for the last 50 years. . . No different than many of the top 50 US stocks . .

The topic at hand is a market sell off, correction, repricing, call it what you will.
They come along with regular frequency, which is the common, some big 20-50%, some little < 20%
My comment about Buffet is that he is not an individual investor, and all of us here (not guaranteed but ) are also not a Buffet.
Buffet is also human in his investments, my point about his losses. So using Buffetisms as your investment thesis is an easy answer to a cognitive dissonance, and it will work, until it doesn't, like everything else in life, as it did for WB as well.

Some of us will sell high and buy low. .
Others will hold on and wait. .

There are a few sell high and buy low peeps on TOTV,
there are many buy and hold on TOTV, assuming the future will be like the past.
The future seldom repeats but it often rhymes. . .
You pick your choice and live with the outcome. . .

Shiller and others just provide a valuation point of view of the current market,
doesn't mean it can't go higher, just means that any error in judgement (federal reserve)
or unforeseen negative event (domestic or geo-political or mother nature (meteor impact) ) may incur a price adjustment, when and for how long is always the uncertainty.

It's never black and white, and it's never the same. .

YMMV

[ElDiabloJoe]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

My greatest concerns are the huge national debt and our disappointing (to say the least) public school systems which have been declining since the SAT scores peaked during the early 1960s. Student scholastic performance has gone downhill ever since. The decline became so blatantly and embarrassingly obvious the SAT was dumbed down in 1994. Today most colleges need to offer remedial English and Math courses to incoming students. The future does look grim.

Of course a large war could erupt or we could be hit with another pandemic. My father got and survived the Spanish Flu in 1918 but it killed more people that did The Great War. One just never knows.

An easy to read classic written about investors' experiences during the Great Depression era is "Where are the Customers' Yachts?" by Fred Schwed Jr. I found it rather chilling.

One cannot spend the present worrying about the future.

In my grandparent's time (born 1901), it was WWI. The world was not going to survive a massive all-in global war! Then the stock market collapsed when they were 28 years old.

In my parent's time (born 1928/1929), it was WWII. The world could not survive the great European war as it spread across Asia and dragged in all of America as well.

In my brother's time, the fear was we would all die because of the Cuban missile crisis. The world was doomed.

In my time, the Cold War promised mutual nuclear annihilation coupled with the AIDS crisis sweeping the globe.

In my children's time it was the housing bubble bursting and dragging the new information frontier tech stocks with it. Then the Covid pandemic came and threatened to wipe everyone off the face of the earth.

There will always be something that some will say, "Why bother, it's not worth the effort, we are all going to die soon anyway."

In twenty years there will be something else. And that too will likely pass.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by ElDiabloJoe

There will always be something that some will say, "Why bother, it's not worth the effort, we are all going to die soon anyway."

In twenty years there will be something else. And that too will likely pass.