[RoboVil]

There are indications that the market overall is very overvalued - but some stocks are overvalued and some are not. One way to gauge if a stock is overvalued is to take a look at the forward PE and PE/Growth. These are based on analysts' estimates and yes sometimes they are wrong to the downside. If you set up a portfolio on yahoo finance you can add those parameters and more looking for stocks that meet your criteria. There are value investors and growth investors, and a few more. I am a growth investor and the best advice I ever received was to look at trends of the future, and invest in large cap stocks which will dominate that future growth. I have made a lot of money off of NVDA and plan to make a lot more. But there are other stocks which are involved in AI which have much better valuation metrics. Regardless of what type of investor you are set up a portfolio to look at forward PE and PE/G. If there is a downturn then stocks with lower PE will not be hurt as much and if not, are more likely to rise to the average of their peers. Also, the long-term value of companies is ~ zero - no such thing as buy and hold forever. Look at GE and now Boeing. Don't become emotionally attached to a stock. Sell the poor performers at a loss and invest in those companies winning the future.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

For the Buffet followers as well:

[MorTech]

Warren Buffet is sitting on $320B in cash...Just burning away toxic fiat.

[Boomer]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

My greatest concerns are the huge national debt and our disappointing (to say the least) public school systems which have been declining since the SAT scores peaked during the early 1960s. Student scholastic performance has gone downhill ever since. The decline became so blatantly and embarrassingly obvious the SAT was dumbed down in 1994. Today most colleges need to offer remedial English and Math courses to incoming students. The future does look grim.

Of course a large war could erupt or we could be hit with another pandemic. My father got and survived the Spanish Flu in 1918 but it killed more people that did The Great War. One just never knows.

An easy to read classic written about investors' experiences during the Great Depression era is "Where are the Customers' Yachts?" by Fred Schwed Jr. I found it rather chilling.

I ordered the book. It just arrived. Interesting copyright dates: 1940; 1955; 1995; 2006. The author died in 1966, but it looks like his book has lived on. I looked at the CIP (Cataloging-in-Publication) and saw that Humor is among the subject headings.

Humor sounds good to me right now. I see nothing amusing about these uncharted economic waters though.

The last investment book I read(ish) was the latest edition of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. It was far more entertaining than I thought it would be. I skimmed some of the chapters, but the ones about the behavior of humans when it comes to investing were fascinating, although not surprising. (The guy who ate the “precious” tulip bulb because he thought it was an onion had certainly horrified the other guy who had invested in the bulb. But we all now know which one was stupid.)

About your little seque into schools — your concerns have more complex answers than what I am willing to sit here and type. For years I have said that someday we could come under a regime that would decide kids should just be at home staring at screens with talking heads giving instruction according to said regime. Just think of the money that would save. No buildings. No buses. A handful of puppet teachers. Yeah, just think and think again. No more of those pesky critical thinking skills to worry about. (shudder) Fahrenheit 451 the classic about book burnings and every home with screens everywhere was considered to be fiction when it was written. Now it could be a concept of a plan.

Re. Concerns about the deficit: It looks like we are in for slash and burn because that does not require an actual plan with a well thought-out approach to government spending, a plan by people who actually know what they are doing and do not have tunnel vision — but I don’t see good sense coming. The effects of what it looks like is actually coming will be seismic throughout the entire economy.

All we can do now is hope for the best and plan for the worst. But the American people have no frame of reference for what could come, the effects of which will be felt by all of us, no matter what we wished for.

Yep. Pogo sure was right.

Boomer

[manaboutown]

Yes, the book is humorous yet is based on actual personal financial experiences, some of which were devastating. It is an easy read, full of lessons to be learned and thought provoking, a welcome combination.

Back in 1962 Warren Buffett decorated his office wall with headlines from market crashes and panics as reminders to be prepared for anything. Warren Buffett hung newspapers from 7 market catastrophes on an office wall to remind him '''anything can happen''' | Business Insider India

I try to be prepared as I was taught in the Boy Scout program which led to me posting this thread about how high the market is at present.

Yet I still feel quite optimistic and positive about the future of our country, as Buffett always has. I am now quite happy, relaxed and breathing easy but remain alert for short term movements. Buffett is sitting on over $300B in cash, the largest amount and portion of his portfolio ever. I am keeping a large percentage of my portfolio in cash at this time. Historically great opportunities that I was able to recognize as such have presented themselves only a handful of times in my life. Perhaps another shall come along before too long. Who knows?

For now, today, "All Eyes on NVDA".

[dewilson58]

The cool thing is.................Keep predicting a crash / sell-off, eventually it will come true......it always does.

[Caymus]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

Yes, the book is humorous yet is based on actual personal financial experiences, some of which were devastating. It is an easy read, full of lessons to be learned and thought provoking, a welcome combination.

Back in 1962 Warren Buffett decorated his office wall with headlines from market crashes and panics as reminders to be prepared for anything. Warren Buffett hung newspapers from 7 market catastrophes on an office wall to remind him '''anything can happen''' | Business Insider India

I try to be prepared as I was taught in the Boy Scout program which led to me posting this thread about how high the market is at present.

Yet I still feel quite optimistic and positive about the future of our country, as Buffett always has. I am now quite happy, relaxed and breathing easy but remain alert for short term movements. Buffett is sitting on over $300B in cash, the largest amount and portion of his portfolio ever. I am keeping a large percentage of my portfolio in cash at this time. Historically great opportunities that I was able to recognize as such have presented themselves only a handful of times in my life. Perhaps another shall come along before too long. Who knows?

For now, today, "All Eyes on NVDA".

NVDA earnings are out. Revenues doubled but shares are down a little. They will probably be up tomorrow unless a macro event occurs such as Russia launching a Nuke

[ithos]

Originally Posted by Caymus

NVDA earnings are out. Revenues doubled but shares are down a little. They will probably be up tomorrow unless a macro event occurs such as Russia launching a Nuke

Snowflake had awesome results.

NVDA has become the most glamorous stock ever.
"Dean of valuation on Nvidia"
Access Denied
Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern School of Business professor of finance, joins ‘Closing Bell Overtime’ to talk Nvidia earnings and valuation.

[ithos]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

The cool thing is.................Keep predicting a crash / sell-off, eventually it will come true......it always does.

Well,


As Americans bargain shop, six-figure earners flock to Walmart | CNN Business
Target shares plunge 21% after discounter cuts forecast, posts biggest earnings miss in two years
Access Denied

[ithos]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

The cool thing is.................Keep predicting a crash / sell-off, eventually it will come true......it always does.

My prediction is there might be a temporary dislocation in our economy once the new administration implements the plan to drastically reduce the size of the Federal Government and steps up enforcement of residency laws.

After that I believe the new economic policies will result in several years of a significant expansion of our GDP.

Protectionism worked for Japan. We'll see if the US can pull it off.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by ithos

Well,


As Americans bargain shop, six-figure earners flock to Walmart | CNN Business
Target shares plunge 21% after discounter cuts forecast, posts biggest earnings miss in two years
Access Denied

Target is still down from the whole tuck-underwear issue.

[ithos]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Target is still down from the whole tuck-underwear issue.

Good point. Forgot all about that.

[capecoralbill]

Originally Posted by Caymus

NVDA earnings are out. Revenues doubled but shares are down a little. They will probably be up tomorrow unless a macro event occurs such as Russia launching a Nuke

I am pretty sure this news story is incorrect, but PBS has been reporting in their hourly news broadcast since 4:00 AM this morning (Nov 21) That Russia has launched an ICBM Missile at the Ukraine.

[manaboutown]

Originally Posted by capecoralbill

I am pretty sure this news story is incorrect, but PBS has been reporting in their hourly news broadcast since 4:00 AM this morning (Nov 21) That Russia has launched an ICBM Missile at the Ukraine.

It was an RS-26. reuters.com

[manaboutown]

For my fellow Buffett watchers...Warren Buffett Just Shunned His Favorite Stock for the First Time Since 2018, and It Could Spell Trouble for the S&P 500